In a study of public opinion from 2002 to 2010, researchers found that public belief that climate change was a threat peaked in 2006-2007 when Democrats and Republicans in Congress showed the most agreement on the issue.

But public concern has dropped since then, as partisanship over the issue increased.

"It is the political leaders in Washington who are really driving public opinion about the threat of climate change," said J. Craig Jenkins, co-author of the study and professor of sociology at Ohio State University.

"The politics overwhelms the science."

The study found that the state of the economy was the second biggest factor affecting perceptions of climate threat. The incidence of extreme weather events had no effect on American's view of the climate change threat. New research published in scientific journals had no impact on public views, but major reports on climate change and articles in popular science magazines did have a small but noticeable impact. The work of advocacy groups also had some effect.

The quantity of media coverage also affected perceived threat levels, but that coverage was mostly a function of what political leaders and advocates were saying.

"The most important factor remained the polarized positions taken by Democrats and Republicans in Washington," Jenkins said.

"When our political leaders can't agree on whether climate change is a threat, the majority of people can't either. The public is divided because our political leaders are polarized."

Jenkins conducted the study with Robert Brulle of Drexel University and Jason Carmichael of McGill University. Their results appear online in the journal Climatic Change and will appear in a future print edition.

The researchers created a U.S. Climate Change Threat Index that measures how public opinion has changed on the issue between January 2002 and December 2010. To create the index, they used a method that is regularly used in social research on public opinion, but has never been used specifically on the climate change issue, Jenkins said.

They combined data from 74 separate surveys over the nine-year period to create a quarterly measure of public concern over climate change. Included were 14 different questions from 6 different polling organizations, which were administered to 84,086 respondents.

They calculated the percentage of respondents choosing a particular response - for example, the percentage that sees global climate change as a "serious problem" or "major threat" - over time.

The researchers examined how changes in the threat index were affected by five factors: extreme weather events, public access to accurate scientific information, media coverage, the impact of major advocacy groups, and cues from political elites. They also took into account other factors that may influence views on climate change, including the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment rate, war deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the price of oil.

The impact of political leaders was measured by Congressional press release statements on climate change issued by Republicans and Democrats, Senate and House roll call votes on climate-change bills, and the number of Congressional hearings on climate.

Advocacy was measured by the number of stories on climate change in major environmental magazines and conservative magazines, as well as the number of New York Times mentions of the movie An Inconvenient Truth, a popular 2006 documentary with Al Gore, the former vice president and 2000 Democratic Presidential candidate as a narrator, that supported the idea that climate change is a threat.

Jenkins said changes in the factors examined in the study can help explain how the threat index has fluctuated between 2002 and 2010.

Between 2002 and 2005, the index was relatively stable, with a score between about 41 and 45 (the numbers roughly correspond to the percentage of Americans who view climate change as a serious threat).

Beginning in the first quarter of 2006 and continuing until the third quarter of 2007, there was a steady increase in the threat index, peaking at a score of about 53.

During this time, Republican scores on anti-environmental voting decreased and Democratic statements in favor of action on climate change increased. Prominent Republican senators, such as John McCain, were openly advocating for climate change legislation and working with Democratic senators to pass it.

"This was a time when there was more partisan agreement that something had to be done about climate change," Jenkins said.

In addition, the movie An Inconvenient Truth was released in 2006 and it won two Academy Awards, increasing public concern about climate change.

During this period, the GDP was increasing and unemployment remained low and stable.

However, things began to change in 2008. The level of Republican anti-environmental voting increased progressively, reaching the highest level ever recorded in 2010.

"Partisanship increased and Americans no longer saw a consensus among their political leaders about the importance of climate change," Jenkins said.

In addition, unemployment increased and the GDP declined following the 2008 financial collapse, also contributing to a decline in the index, which fell below 45 by the end of 2008.

There was one final increase in the index during the second quarter of 2009, when a number of Democratic congressional statements were released urging action on climate change. These statements coincided with House debate and vote on the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009.

But after this flurry of activity, the threat index soon dropped to the 2002 to 2005 levels and remained there through 2010. The Senate refused to take up the climate change issue.

Jenkins said the results of this study present a clear message to the climate science community.

"The message is that they need to re-think their strategy. Many scientists believe that if we simply educate people about climate change, they will eventually see it as a threat and determine that we need to do something about it," he said.

"But our findings suggest that's not what's happening. There is no linear process where people get educated about the threat and then demand action. People's views fluctuate quite a bit, and lot has to do with what they hear from their political leaders. It is a political battle."

]]> Thu, 09 FEB 2012 09:07:32 AEST New Delhi (AFP) Feb 4, 2012 - India, Russia, the United States, China and other countries will meet in Moscow this month to decide whether to retaliate against the EU's decision to impose a carbon tax on air travel, a report says.

The European Union (EU) imposed the tax with effect from January 1, but over two dozen countries, including India, Russia, China and the United States, have opposed the move saying it violates international law.

The Press Trust of India late Friday quoted what it said were official sources as saying over 30 countries would meet in Moscow on February 21 and 22 to decide on retaliatory measures against the EU if it insists on imposing the carbon tax on non-EU flights as there was "growing agreement" on the matter.

The report did not name the sources.

The news agency added that India delivered "a strong message" on the carbon tax issue to an EU delegation led by EU climate chief Connie Hedegaard on Friday in New Delhi.

"Even if only India, Russia and China decide to start charging for over-flights by European carriers or decide to restrict the number of flights operated by them citing emission concerns, it could have a devastating effect on the European airline industry," a source said, according to PTI.

A "Delhi Declaration" was unanimously adopted at a meeting of the International Civil Aviation Organization Council and other non-EU member states in New Delhi last September.

The declaration opposed EU's plan to include all flights by non-EU carriers to and from an airport in the EU territory in its emissions trading system, saying it was inconsistent with applicable international law.

The EU has said the carbon tax will help the 27-nation bloc achieve its goal of cutting emissions by 20 percent by 2020.

]]> Thu, 09 FEB 2012 09:07:32 AEST Boston MA (SPX) Feb 06, 2012 - A study published in Nature Climate Change finds that tropical vegetation contains 21 percent more carbon than previous studies had suggested. Using a combination of remote sensing and field data, scientists from Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC), Boston University, and the University of Maryland were able to produce the first "wall-to-wall" map (with a spatial resolution of 500 m x 500 m) of carbon storage of forests, shrublands, and savannas in the tropics of Africa, Asia, and South America.

Colors on the map represent the amount of carbon density stored in the vegetation in a continuum fashion (Figure 1). Reliable estimates of carbon storage are critical to understanding the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere by changes in land cover and land use.

Tropical deforestation is considered a major source of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change, releasing as much as 1.1 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere each year.

Based on new data in this study, researchers believe that current models may overestimate the net flux of carbon into the atmosphere due to tropical vegetation loss by 11 to 12 percent.

For countries trying to meet their greenhouse gases reporting requirements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), these new data are particularly important.

Lead author Alessandro Baccini, an assistant scientist at WHRC, explained that the new data set provides a spatially and temporally consistent estimate of carbon stock and a stronger foundation for estimating carbon emissions by better characterizing the carbon density of the forest that has been lost.

"For the first time we were able to derive accurate estimates of carbon densities using satellite LiDAR observations in places that have never been measured," said Baccini. "This is like having a consistent, very dense pantropical forest inventory."

In many developing nations, deforestation is the largest source of emissions of greenhouse gases. In order to reliably report emissions to the UNFCCC, and to participate in international schemes such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+), which provides compensation for avoiding deforestation, these countries need an accurate way to calculate stored carbon and to track deforestation and reforestation.

"We worked closely with collaborators in 12 countries around the tropics to collect the field data needed to calibrate the satellite measurements and ensure relevance for their national reporting," said co-author Nadine Laporte, a WHRC associate scientist, who coordinated field measurements in Africa.

"The paper is important for two reasons," said co-author and WHRC senior scientist Richard A. Houghton. "First, it provides a high-resolution map of aboveground biomass density for the world's tropical forests.

Previous maps were of much coarser resolution and yielded wildly different estimates of both regional totals and spatial distribution. Second, the paper calculates a new estimate of carbon emissions from land-use change in the tropics."

This was done using the co-location of biomass density and deforestation to assign a more representative carbon density to the forests cleared. Previous estimates used 'average' biomass densities that may have biased emissions' estimates. In short, the approach will lead to better tracking of changes in biomass density resulting from degradation and growth.

This will in turn help nations, projects, and groups of all kinds determine better estimates of carbon emissions. These estimates are required nationally for UNFCCC reporting and would support REDD+ should it be implemented.

"The study represents a major step forward in the effort to map the current state of global tropical biomass stocks," commented Greg Asner, an ecologist at the Carnegie Institution for Science.

"The 500m resolution of the map will help countries implement activities to improve forest management and to help fight climate change through reduced carbon emissions from deforestation."

The scientists estimated that tropical forests in America store around 118 billion tons of carbon, a fifth more than indicated by previous findings. For the first time in a large-area mapping effort of this kind, an end-to-end approach was constructed quite literally from the ground up, beginning with a pantropical field campaign, relying on the work of scholars in many different countries, and designed for the optimal integration of field and satellite data. The result is a carbon density map for the tropics with a level of consistency and accuracy never before achieved

Global measurements of where carbon is accumulating and where it's being lost will be used to better quantify how many carbon credits would be needed to reduce carbon emission under the UNFCCC and, when carbon is valued, to quantify financial rewards. As Richard A. Houghton said, "Your forest may be worth more if it's accumulating more carbon than another forest."

"Coupling the Lidar and field measurements is what makes this study and our map so unique, and powerful" notes study co-author and WHRC senior scientist Scott Goetz. "Without measurements from a satellite-based Lidar, a study of this nature would not have been possible. We need that capability going forward."

The study used field measurements collected across the tropics to calibrate light detection and ranging (LiDAR) satellites models and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectoradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua and Terra to map the carbon densities in the tropics. The carbon density data set is available for downloaded here. Satellite processing algorithms and data are available here.

]]> Thu, 09 FEB 2012 09:07:32 AEST Madrid, Spain (SPX) Feb 07, 2012 - A team of Spanish researchers have used different geological samples, extracted from the Enol lake in Asturias, to show that the Holocene, a period that started 11,600 years ago, did not have a climate as stable as was believed.

The Holocene period, which includes the last 11,600 years of our history, has always been described as a stable period in terms of climatic conditions, especially when compared to the abrupt changes that occurred in the last ice age, which ended around 10,000 years ago, giving way to the Holocene.

A study carried out by researchers from the Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (IPE) at the Spanish Research Scientific Council (CSIC), in collaboration with other scientists from Zaragoza, La Coruna, Valencia and Cadiz universities, and published in the Journal of Paleolimnology, has found climatic differences amongst the "stable" 13,500 years.

The study specifically focused on the Enol lake (Asturias), where various sediment samples were extracted from the bottom. These samples provide data about the regional humidity and temperature changes in the area over more than 135 centuries.

The project, together with a previous study that details the last ice age and another, more recent one that examines the last centuries, implies "the first time glacial evolution and climate change have been registered in the last 40,000 years in the Picos de Europa National Park" claims Ana Moreno, researcher from the IPE-CSIC and lead author of the study.

The Enol lake was formed 40,000 years ago following the retreat of a glacier which dug a trough, allowing the accumulation of sediments and water. 18,000 years ago it was already a lake and organic sediments that are currently being studied were starting to be deposited.

From the lake sediments the physical properties and the amounts of organic carbon, carbonate and other elements, could be analysed, as well as some biological indicators, such as diatom and ostracod fossils. Vegetation cover evolution

Furthermore, the detailed study of pollen accumulated in this material allows us to make a reconstruction of the variations of vegetation cover, which is crucial information in the context of climate change and the impact of human beings.

The researchers recognised at least 4 different stages in the Holocene: the first one was cold and dry, between 13,500 to 11,600 years ago (cal years BP) which included a brief return to the icy condition known as Younger Dryas. This was followed by a period of higher temperature and humidity, between 11,600 and 8,700 years ago, which coincided with the beginning of the Holocene.

The third period had a drier climate, between 8,700 and 4,650 years ago, and finally a return to the more humid climate from then up to 2,220 years ago. The study also highlights the changes caused in the latest period caused by human activity, specifically from pasture and deforestation.

The study's conclusions therefore report significant environmental changes throughout the last 13,500 years in history. They also show how at the beginning of the Holocene, the vegetation coverage of the area, which until that time had consisted of Pinus (pine), Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak), then became a forest of mainly Quercus.

Researchers also highlight an increase in precipitation for nearly twelve centuries (between 9,750 and 8,600 years ago), which led to an increase in Corylus, or in other words, Hazel. Although the study of these geological traces from the Enol lake only covers up to 2,200 years ago, it is possible to determine the environmental impact that the region's inhabitants of that time had from studying the pollen. Former use of mountain pastures

Moreno said that "The use of mountain pastures is possibly the oldest documented human activity in the area. As we have seen, the lengthy sampling of Lago Enol detected that an opening in the landscape began 4,650 years ago, and most notably from 2,700 years ago".

The results also show that from 4,650 years ago, humans contributed a greater presence of herbaceous species (from the Plantago and Rumex Acetosella genera) and a decrease in the area's woodlands.

Those in charge of the study claim that these hydrological and landscape stages from the Enol lake sediments demonstrate the biggest changes in the climate registered during the Holocene in the south of Europe. The Cantabria mountains were like that 2,200 years ago, a date that coincided with the Roman occupation and the start of the Second Punic Wars against the Carthaginians led by Hannibal.

In a more recent study, these researchers found from the pollen register that there have been many alterations in the landscape, which were caused by human activity in the last 200 years. For example, they detected a change in the number of coprophilious fungi (which feed on the faeces of the livestock that graze there) throughout the twentieth century.

According to the researchers, this is due to the fact that "the indigenous bovine livestock were replaced by Alpine Brown cattle, and, before that, high-milk yielding Frisians. This way it changes from being an extensive livestock on the mountain, with the indigenous cattle, to another intensive type, with stables at the bottom of the valley. Another change that the pollen shows is the introduction of eucalyptus plants in 1930.

]]> Thu, 09 FEB 2012 09:07:32 AEST New Delhi (AFP) Feb 3, 2012 - EU climate chief Connie Hedegaard acknowledged Friday that "difficult and unpleasant" negotiations lay ahead with countries like India and China to agree a global framework to cut greenhouse-gas emissions.

Hedegaard played an instrumental role at UN climate talks in Durban last December in building consensus towards a legal accord that for the first time will bring all major emitters under a single legal roof.

The agreement was seen as a breakthrough, given India and China's long-held opposition to any sort of legally binding structure for emissions cuts.

Both countries fear it would stifle the economic growth needed to lift millions out of poverty and argue that a greater portion of the cuts' burden should fall on industrialised nations.

Speaking on the sidelines of a Sustainable Development Summit in New Delhi, Hedegaard said the next step was to get global consensus on a peak year for emissions and how cuts would be distributed and legally enforced.

"We've come to the point where we have to start this very difficult and very unpleasant discussion," Hedegaard said.

"Some do not dare to discuss it because they think they are harming themselves," she added -- a clear reference to India's insistence that no agreement should deprive it of its right to development.

The agreement in Durban envisaged the adoption of a global pact on emissions cuts by 2015 -- although it allows entry into force to be delayed until 2020.

After intense last-minute haggling, the term "legally binding" was rejected in favour of a compromise wording that the pact would have "legal force".

While the precise nature of that "legal force" still has to be debated, Hedegaard said simply getting countries like India to accept the concept of a legal framework was a huge step forward.

"Nobody in Europe is arguing against the need for India to have substantial growth," she said.

"But when it comes to climate change, we are mutually interdependent... and we must be equally bound.

"When the world faces big, urgent challenges... experience shows that we have to have some sort of legal framework," she said.

Critics of the Durban accord say it provides for too little, too late, citing warnings that global emissions must start to peak before 2020 to avoid average global temperatures rising by more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial levels.

According to research presented by German scientists, the world is on track for a 3.5 degrees Celsius (6.3 Fahrenheit) rise, spelling worsening droughts, floods, storms and rising sea levels for tens of millions of people.

]]> Thu, 09 FEB 2012 09:07:32 AEST New Delhi (AFP) Feb 2, 2012 - Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said Thursday that "a lack of collective will" was hampering efforts to forge a common global front against the threat of climate change.

Addressing the opening of a Sustainable Development Summit in New Delhi, Singh said India was committed to tackling greenhouse gas emissions, but rejected any framework that deprived the country of its right to develop.

"It is necessary to recognise that currently there appears to be a lack of collective global will to address this problem with the seriousness it deserves," the prime minister said.

The threat of climate change has brought the world to a point where "the actions of each and every country" affect the whole planet, Singh said, adding that cooperation between industrialised and developing nations was crucial.

But any cooperation must be based on "the right to development and the need for an equitable distribution of burden," he said, arguing that per capita greenhouse emissions in industrialised nations were 10 times higher than developing countries.

Emerging Asian giants India and China, both huge emitters of carbon, have long resisted calls to sign up to legally binding emission cuts.

Later in the day, the summit heard from Hollywood star and former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger who said people had to embrace green energy without "waiting for anybody or any international agreement."

"It is great to hope but I would not wait. Everyone has to participate... do not hesitate," he said, offering up India's independence icon Mahatma Gandhi as a model for how to affect radical change through grassroots movements.

]]> Thu, 09 FEB 2012 09:07:32 AEST Pasadena CA (JPL) Feb 02, 2012 - Two years ago, scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., released a study claiming that inconsistencies between satellite observations of Earth's heat and measurements of ocean heating amounted to evidence of "missing energy" in the planet's system.

Where was it going? Or, they wondered, was something wrong with the way researchers tracked energy as it was absorbed from the sun and emitted back into space?

An international team of atmospheric scientists and oceanographers, led by Norman Loeb of NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Va., and including Graeme Stephens of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., set out to investigate the mystery.

They used 10 years of data - spanning 2001 to 2010 - from NASA Langley's orbiting Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Experiment (CERES) instruments to measure changes in the net radiation balance at the top of Earth's atmosphere. The CERES data were then combined with estimates of the heat content of Earth's ocean from three independent ocean-sensor sources.

Their analysis, summarized in a NASA-led study published Jan. 22 in the journal Nature Geosciences, found that the satellite and ocean measurements are, in fact, in broad agreement once observational uncertainties are factored in.

"One of the things we wanted to do was a more rigorous analysis of the uncertainties," Loeb said. "When we did that, we found the conclusion of missing energy in the system isn't really supported by the data."

"Missing Energy" is in the Ocean
"Our data show that Earth has been accumulating heat in the ocean at a rate of half a watt per square meter (10.8 square feet), with no sign of a decline," Loeb said. "This extra energy will eventually find its way back into the atmosphere and increase temperatures on Earth."

Scientists generally agree that 90 percent of the excess heat associated with increases in greenhouse gas concentrations gets stored in Earth's ocean. If released back into the atmosphere, a half-watt per square meter accumulation of heat could increase global temperatures by 0.3 or more degrees centigrade (0.54 degree Fahrenheit).

Loeb said the findings demonstrate the importance of using multiple measuring systems over time, and illustrate the need for continuous improvement in the way Earth's energy flows are measured.

The science team at the National Center for Atmospheric Research measured inconsistencies from 2004 and 2009 between satellite observations of Earth's heat balance and measurements of the rate of upper ocean heating from temperatures in the upper 700 meters (2,300 feet) of the ocean. They said the inconsistencies were evidence of "missing energy."

Other authors of the paper are from the University of Hawaii, the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle, the University of Reading United Kingdom and the University of Miami.

]]> Thu, 09 FEB 2012 09:07:32 AEST Greenbelt MD (SPX) Jan 31, 2012 - A new NASA study underscores the fact that greenhouse gases generated by human activity - not changes in solar activity - are the primary force driving global warming.

The study offers an updated calculation of the Earth's energy imbalance, the difference between the amount of solar energy absorbed by Earth's surface and the amount returned to space as heat. The researchers' calculations show that, despite unusually low solar activity between 2005 and 2010, the planet continued to absorb more energy than it returned to space.

James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City, led the research. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics published the study last December.

Total solar irradiance, the amount of energy produced by the sun that reaches the top of each square meter of the Earth's atmosphere, typically declines by about a tenth of a percent during cyclical lulls in solar activity caused by shifts in the sun's magnetic field. Usually solar minimums occur about every eleven years and last a year or so, but the most recent minimum persisted more than two years longer than normal, making it the longest minimum recorded during the satellite era.

Pinpointing the magnitude of Earth's energy imbalance is fundamental to climate science because it offers a direct measure of the state of the climate. Energy imbalance calculations also serve as the foundation for projections of future climate change. If the imbalance is positive and more energy enters the system than exits, Earth grows warmer. If the imbalance is negative, the planet grows cooler.

Hansen's team concluded that Earth has absorbed more than half a watt more solar energy per square meter than it let off throughout the six year study period. The calculated value of the imbalance (0.58 watts of excess energy per square meter) is more than twice as much as the reduction in the amount of solar energy supplied to the planet between maximum and minimum solar activity (0.25 watts per square meter).

"The fact that we still see a positive imbalance despite the prolonged solar minimum isn't a surprise given what we've learned about the climate system, but it's worth noting because this provides unequivocal evidence that the sun is not the dominant driver of global warming," Hansen said.

According to calculations conducted by Hansen and his colleagues, the 0.58 watts per square meter imbalance implies that carbon dioxide levels need to be reduced to about 350 parts per million to restore the energy budget to equilibrium. The most recent measurements show that carbon dioxide levels are currently 392 parts per million and scientists expect that concentration to continue to rise in the future.

Climate scientists have been refining calculations of the Earth's energy imbalance for many years, but this newest estimate is an improvement over previous attempts because the scientists had access to better measurements of ocean temperature than researchers have had in the past.

The improved measurements came from free-floating instruments that directly monitor the temperature, pressure and salinity of the upper ocean to a depth of 2,000 meters (6,560 feet). The network of instruments, known collectively as Argo, has grown dramatically in recent years since researchers first began deploying the floats a decade ago. Today, more than 3,400 Argo floats actively take measurements and provide data to the public, mostly within 24 hours.

Hansen's analysis of the information collected by Argo, along with other ground-based and satellite data, show the upper ocean has absorbed 71 percent of the excess energy and the Southern Ocean, where there are few Argo floats, has absorbed 12 percent. The abyssal zone of the ocean, between about 3,000 and 6,000 meters (9,800 and 20,000 feet) below the surface, absorbed five percent, while ice absorbed eight percent and land four percent.

The updated energy imbalance calculation has important implications for climate modeling. Its value, which is slightly lower than previous estimates, suggests that most climate models overestimate how readily heat mixes deeply into the ocean and significantly underestimates the cooling effect of small airborne particles called aerosols, which along with greenhouse gases and solar irradiance are critical factors in energy imbalance calculations.

"Climate models simulate observed changes in global temperatures quite accurately, so if the models mix heat into the deep ocean too aggressively, it follows that they underestimate the magnitude of the aerosol cooling effect," Hansen said.

Aerosols, which can either warm or cool the atmosphere depending on their composition and how they interact with clouds, are thought to have a net cooling effect. But estimates of their overall impact on climate are quite uncertain given how difficult it is to measure the distribution of the particles on a broad scale. The new study suggests that the overall cooling effect from aerosols could be about twice as strong as current climate models suggest, largely because few models account for how the particles affect clouds.

"Unfortunately, aerosols remain poorly measured from space," said Michael Mishchenko, a scientist also based at GISS and the project scientist for Glory, a satellite mission designed to measure aerosols in unprecedented detail that was lost after a launch failure in early 2011. "We must have a much better understanding of the global distribution of detailed aerosol properties in order to perfect calculations of Earth's energy imbalance," said Mishchenko.

]]> Thu, 09 FEB 2012 09:07:32 AEST Cartagena, Spain (SPX) Jan 31, 2012 - A team at the Polytechnic University of Cartagena has designed a new method for calculating drought trends. Initial results suggest that by the year 2050 there could be a 15% increase compared to the droughts seen in 1990 in the Segura river basin.

At the beginning of 2011, water levels in Spain's reservoirs reached an average of 77.83% of total capacity. However, the lack of rain last year has now reduced the average to 62.01%. The droughts that Spain experiences year on year are one of the main concerns of agricultural workers who use up to 80% of a reservoir's water for their crops.

A new study at the Polytechnic University of Cartagena (UPCT) has combined recorded data with the results from state-of-the-art regional climate change models to calculate the maximum length of droughts in detail.

The results, which have been applied to the Segura river basin, show how "drought periods since the 1980's onwards have notably intensified," according to Sandra Garcia Galiano, one of the authors of the study.

For Garcia Galiano and her team from the UPCT's Water Resources R and D and i group, "semiarid basins, like that of the Segura river, are vulnerable to changes in rainfall. This creates uncertainty for agriculture."

The purpose of the study is to "deepen knowledge of plausible draught trends so that this information can then be used to strike a better balance between adaptation and mitigation measures."

The method can be applied on a European scale

The main new feature of the UPTC study is the use of a new methodology, based on regional climate model combinations, which applies GAMLSS modelling (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape).

Garcia Galiano justifies their choice on the basis that traditional frequency analysis techniques are flawed when its comes to detecting the variability of extreme events like droughts.

In the researcher's words, "the non-stationary nature of hydrometeorological time series based on climatic and anthropogenic changes is believed to be the main downfall of traditional frequency methods."

As well as analysing the collected date, climatic models help to identify future drought trends that include a wide variation of factors. Bearing this in mind, the researcher states that "a 15% increase in extreme droughts in headwater basins compared to 1990 is expected by the year 2050."

Published by International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Risk in Water Resources Management, according to Garcia Galiano, in summary the study offers "an innovative methodology for tackling the time-space evaluation of the risks associated with non-stationary frequency distribution of extreme droughts."

In addition, they have confirmed that this method "can be easily applied to other national or European spatial scales as a way of increasing knowledge of hydroclimatic variation."

Garcia Galiano, S.G., Giraldo Osorio, J.D., Urrea Mallebrera, M., Merida Abril, A., Tetay Botia, C.. "Assessing drought hazard under non-stationary conditions on South East of Spain". Risk in Water Resources Management. IAHS Publ. 347: 85-91, IAHS Press, CEH Wallingford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom: 85-91. 2011.

]]> Thu, 09 FEB 2012 09:07:32 AEST Beijing, China (SPX) Jan 30, 2012 - The Twenty-four Solar Terms are ancient Chinese terms used for about 2000 years. They describe 24 stages or timings associated with seasonal changes in phenology and agricultural activity throughout a year. Qian et al. from the Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, quantitatively defined the somewhat 'astronomic' term for the first time, based on modern temperature records.

This facilitated an investigation of changes in the climatic Solar Terms under global warming over the past half-century. Their results were based on a recently developed homogenized dataset of daily temperature observations, dating to 1960. According to these results, the timings of the climatic Solar Terms during the warming phase (around spring) of the seasonal cycle have significantly advanced (by 6-15 days) from the 1960s to the present.

Across China, timings during the cooling phase (around autumn) have delayed by 5-6 days on average. This is mainly because of a warming shift of the entire seasonal temperature cycle, as illustrated in the figure. Four particular phenology-related climatic Solar Terms, namely the Waking of Insects, Pure Brightness, Grain Full, and Grain in Ear, have advanced almost everywhere in the country (as much as 20 days in North China).

This has important implications for agricultural planning. The numbers of extremely cold (Great Cold) days decreased by 56.8% over the last 10 years as compared with the 1960s, whereas those of extremely hot (Great Heat) days increased by 81.4%. The paper entitled 'Climatic changes in the Twenty-four Solar Terms during 1960-2008' is published in Chinese Science Bulletin, 2012, Vol 57(2).

The present results imply that under concurrent global warming and consequent earlier / delayed timings of the climatic Twenty-four Solar Terms, planning various human activities (especially agricultural ones) based on traditional experience requires adjustment. It has been suggested that decision-making regarding climate change adaptation should take into account more climate elements, such as changes in precipitation and climate extremes, plus technological advances.

Article: Qian C, Yan Z W, Fu C B. Climatic changes in the Twenty-four Solar Terms during 1960-2008, Chinese Sci. Bull., 2012, 57(2): 276-286

]]> Thu, 09 FEB 2012 09:07:32 AEST Subscribe to our daily selection of space, military, environment and energy newsletters responseText http://visitor.constantcontact.com/manage/optin/ea?v=0016gbbKsaiGSpQFojVO8ZoHw%3D%3D