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News About Disaster Management
April 15, 2017
Evaluating forecasts of extreme events
Heidelberg, Germany (SPX) Apr 13, 2017
When it comes to extreme events, public discussion of forecasts often focuses on predictive performance. After the international financial crisis of 2007, for example, the public paid a great deal of attention to economists who had correctly predicted the crisis, attributing it to their superior predictive ability. However, restricting forecast evaluation to subsets of extreme observations has unexpected and undesired effects, and is bound to discredit even the most expert forecasts. In a recent a ... read more

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