News About Earthquakes And Cyclonic Storms

Bahamas PM laments 'generational devastation' as Dorian toll mounts

Thu, 05 SEP 2019 08:05:59 AEST

Nassau, Bahamas (AFP) Sept 5, 2019 - Bahamas Prime Minister Hubert Minnis on Wednesday lamented the "generational devastation" wrought by Hurricane Dorian, as he confirmed the storm's death toll had risen to at least 20.

The US Coast Guard and Britain's Royal Navy airlifted survivors and ferried in emergency supplies as flood waters receded in the Bahamas, while the weakened but still dangerous storm was "lashing" the coasts of the American states of Georgia and South Carolina.

The United Nations said 70,000 people on Grand Bahama and Abaco islands were in "immediate need" of aid while the prime minister confirmed the grim new victim count.

"There have been 20 confirmed deaths on Abaco. We expect that this number will increase," Minnis told a news conference.

He also issued a warning to looters, saying they will be prosecuted "to the fullest extent of the law" and announced the deployment of additional police and defense force officers.

Shelter, safe drinking water, food and medicine were urgently needed for some 50,000 people on Grand Bahama and between 15,000 and 20,000 on Abaco, UN emergency relief coordinator Mark Lowcock said after a meeting with Minnis.

"Speed is of the essence," Red Cross official Stephen McAndrew said of rescue operations on the two northernmost islands in the Bahamas archipelago which were pummeled by one of the strongest Atlantic storms on record.

People on Grand Bahama island were using jet skis and boats to pluck victims from homes flooded and pulverized by heavy rain and lashing winds from the monster storm.

US Coast Guard and Royal Navy helicopters were conducting medical evacuations, aerial assessments to help coordinate relief efforts, and reconnaissance flights to assess damage.

President Donald Trump spoke by telephone to the Bahamian leader and pledged US assistance, the White House said.

"A big section of the Bahamas was hit like few people have seen before," Trump said. "They need a big hand."

Aerial footage showed scenes of catastrophic damage in Abaco with hundreds of homes missing roofs, cars submerged or overturned, widespread flooding and boats reduced to matchwood.

- 'Lucky in Florida' -

As rescue efforts ramped up, Dorian remained a strong Category 2 hurricane threatening the US east coast states of Georgia and South and North Carolina but leaving Florida largely unscathed.

"We got lucky in Florida, very, very lucky indeed," Trump said.

The Miami-based National Hurricane Center predicted the Carolinas could be hit with dangerous storm surge of up to eight feet (2.4 meters) and six to 12 inches of rain.

"We are very well prepared," Trump said.

Larry Lewis, who runs Paradise Watersports in the city of Freeport on Grand Bahama, said most of the flood waters had receded but some roads remained impassable.

"Everybody is trying to do their best," Lewis told AFP by telephone.

He said very few stores were open. "I saw a lot of people scrapping for something to eat," he said.

Roberto Smith, who was born in Abaco but now lives in Florida, said he was worried about his family.

"I spoke to my dad on the night of the hurricane, on Sunday night, and his roof blew up," Smith told AFP. "I haven't spoken to him since then. I am really worried. I can't even eat."

"The island is devastated," he added. "There is no power, no running water, no electricity."

- 'Truly shocking' -

The US Coast Guard said it had rescued 61 people including 19 injured patients from the Marsh Harbour clinic on Abaco island who were flown to Nassau on Tuesday.

USAID, the US relief agency, said meanwhile it was airlifting supplies such as plastic sheeting for shelter, hygiene kits and water from Miami.

A British landing ship, the RFA Mounts Bay, launched boats carrying supplies for Marsh Harbour on Abaco and Britain's Department for International Development said it had deployed a team of three humanitarian experts.

"The clock is now ticking to get help to those in need," British International Development Secretary Alok Sharma said.

The Bahamas, a former British colony, gained its independence in 1973 and is a member of the Commonwealth.

Dorian, which dumped as much as 30 inches of rain on the islands, was downgraded Tuesday morning to a Category 2 hurricane on the five-level wind scale.

At 8:00 pm (0000 GMT), Dorian was packing winds of 110 miles (175 kilometers) and was located 130 miles (210 kilometers) south of Charleston, South Carolina, according to the NHC.

It was moving in a north-northwest direction at eight miles per hour and was "lashing the Georgia and South Carolina coast," the NHC added.

Earthquake study casts doubt on early warnings but hints at improved forecasting

Thu, 05 SEP 2019 08:05:59 AEST

Tokyo, Japan (SPX) Sep 05, 2019 - A recent study investigated around 100,000 localized seismic events to search for patterns in the data. University of Tokyo Professor Satoshi Ide discovered that earthquakes of differing magnitudes have more in common than was previously thought.

This suggests development of early warning systems may be more difficult than hoped. But conversely, similarities between some events indicate that predictable characteristics may aid researchers attempting to forecast seismic events.

Since the 1980s seismologists - earthquake researchers - have wondered how feasible it might be to predict how an earthquake will behave given some information about its initial conditions.

In particular whether you can tell the eventual magnitude based on seismic measurements near the point of origin, or epicenter. Most researchers consider this idea too improbable given the randomness of earthquake behavior, but Ide thinks there's more to it than that.

"Taking inspiration from a study comparing different-sized earthquakes, I decided to analyze a seismic data set from a region known as the Tohoku-Hokkaido subduction zone in eastern Japan," said Ide. "A systematic comparison of around 100,000 seismic events over 15 years leads me to believe earthquakes are not different in random ways but share many similarities."

To draw comparisons between different earthquakes, Ide first selected the larger examples from the data set with magnitudes greater than 4.5. He also selected smaller earthquakes in the same regions as these larger ones.

Ide then ascertained mathematically how similar seismic signals were between pairs of large and small earthquakes. He used a statistical function for the comparison of signals called a cross-correlation on data from 10 seismic stations close to the pairs of earthquakes in each case.

"Some pairs of large and small earthquakes start with exactly the same shaking characteristics, so we cannot tell the magnitude of an earthquake from initial seismic observations," explained Ide.

"This is bad news for earthquake early warning. However, for future forecasting attempts, given this symmetry between earthquakes of different magnitudes, it is good to know they are not completely random."

Research paper

Niger battles deadly floods as city streets swamped

Thu, 05 SEP 2019 08:05:59 AEST

Niamey (AFP) Sept 4, 2019 - "That's it, time to go!" As a rising swell of muddy water creeps towards his house in Niger's capital Niamey, Mamoudou Barkire is finally leaving.

Deadly floods have swamped several parts of the city and the rest of the country, forcing thousands to flee as it demolished homes and turned streets into rivers.

And the 63-year-old retiree, propped on crutches, is joining them.

But leaving was not an easy choice. Barkire, whose neighbours left weeks ago, spent the past two days piling sandbags onto a clay wall he built in a futile bid to keep the water away.

"I barely have enough to feed my family on this measly pension, and now I risk losing my home".

Extreme weather is an all-too-common phenomenon in Niger. Last year, drought and flooding led to food shortages in a crisis which, exacerbated by jihadist violence, left over 10 percent of the population needing humanitarian aid.

But the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned that the current floods -- sparked by exceptionally high water levels in the river Niger -- could lead to a cholera epidemic.

The waterborne disease killed dozens last year in the southern Maradi region, currently the worst-hit by floods.

- Red alert -

The disaster has already claimed 42 lives. Only 25,000 of the 70,000 people affected by the crisis have received aid, said Lawan Magadji, Niger's minister for humanitarian affairs.

Niger, one of the world's poorest countries, is in the midst of its annual rainy season, which lasts three to four months over summer.

At the start of the week, water rose to 6.38 metres (21 feet) in Niamey, levels "not seen in more than 50 years", the city's governor Assane Issaka Karanta said.

It prompted authorities to trigger a "red alert", which they renewed on Wednesday.

Even the arid Agadez region -- home to a UNESCO-protected historic centre -- has been hit.

In Niamey inhabitants have clubbed together in the struggle to save their neighbourhoods.

Children drag carts piled with dam-building materials through the streets, while women try their best to clean up courtyards brimming with water.

With more heavy rain predicted in coming weeks, authorities have asked humanitarian agencies for help.

The vast majority of the city's inhabitants live on the banks of the river Niger, and some even built their homes on the river bed.

But "the worst has been avoided" for now, as dams surrounding the city "are holding up", Niamey's Mayor Mouctar Mamoudou said.

- Sleepless nights -

Watching over the city, a "brigade" of locals are tasked with keeping an eye on the river banks at night.

"We haven't been sleeping. If the water levels rise again, we'll let people know," says Ali, who hasn't slept for two nights.

And in the capital's Kirkissoye district -- one of the worst affected -- firefighters patrol the streets, assessing damage and registering victims on a list.

Saouda Abdoulaye is one of those who decided to stay, despite authorities warning residents to pack their bags and ration food and water.

Abdoulaye says she had underestimated the damage the flooding would cause.

"Kirkissoye has suddenly turned into a swamp. At night, it's a ghost town," she says.

Florida is ready, but where is the hurricane?

Thu, 05 SEP 2019 08:05:59 AEST

Port Saint Lucie, United States (AFP) Sept 3, 2019 - Houses and businesses are boarded up, bridges to barrier islands are blocked and many residents of Florida's beachside communities are long gone.

But the wait is starting to get to those who have stayed behind, waiting for Hurricane Dorian, the slow-moving behemoth that walloped the Bahamas and now lingers off shore.

"The uncertainty is a little nerve wracking," says Drew Gabrielson, clutching his trembling Chihuahua Rodney as he looks across a beach at the roughening surf.

The 47-year-old has been through hurricanes before, but this one, he says, is so slow.

"I'm ready for it to be over," he said.

On Tuesday, Dorian began moving at five miles per hour (eight kilometers per hour), a positively jaunty pace after being stuck at a near standstill for the better part of two days as it battered the helpless Bahamas.

That has given Florida precious time to assemble an army of utility trucks, bulldozers and road-clearing equipment.

But the sense of impatience is growing as the wait stretches out.

One tongue-in-cheek hurricane graphic on social media shows Dorian's arrival times on the US east coast as anywhere between Halloween and Christmas.

Still, there are chilling reminders that the big storm is still out there.

The hurricane's outer bands lash the shore from time to time, with 50 miles per hour gusts, intermittent rains and high seas.

- 'Already working overtime!' -

On Tuesday morning, Dorian had weakened to a Category 2 storm after leaving at least five dead in the Bahamas, where it landed Sunday as a maximum strength Category 5.

It was expected to continue picking up speed and turn north Wednesday night, which would mark a breakthrough after days in place.

"I think I can walk faster than this storm," said Erick Gill, communications director for Florida's St Lucie county.

"Looks like we are out of harm's way, but we still want to remain vigilant. Until it passes north of us, there's still a chance that we could be impacted," he said.

The biggest threat is from storm surges kicked up by Dorian, as well as potential hurricane-force winds.

Early Tuesday, dozens of electric power company workers arrived by bus from Orlando in St Lucie county.

The area is peppered with vulnerable mobile home parks and flood-prone areas, but the extra workers are on hand to repair power lines and clear downed trees once the storm moves through.

"Let the storm take its time, I'm already working overtime!" said one worker, who wouldn't give his name.

Florida has 118 shelters open across the state, where 10,300 people have taken refuge from the storm.

Mona Buchanan, the principal of a high school being used as a shelter in Fort Pierce, Florida said: "People are tense because we don't know where the storm is going to go."

Slow-crawling Dorian a new kind of threat

Thu, 05 SEP 2019 08:05:59 AEST

Washington (AFP) Sept 3, 2019 - After devastating the Bahamas, Dorian is continuing its long crawl toward the southeast US with slightly weakened winds.

So what has made this relatively small hurricane so destructive?

- Packing a punch -

Hurricane Dorian stormed into the record books on Sunday when its maximum sustained winds of 185 miles (300 kilometers) per hour tied it in second place with 1998's Gilbert and 2005's Wilma as the most powerful Atlantic hurricane since 1950, according to Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project.

First place is still held by 1980's Allen, which had maximum sustained winds of 190 mph.

Dorian is also the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in the Bahamas by pressure.

From its peak as a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, it has weakened to a Category 2 storm, but the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) has warned Americans to not take it lightly.

That's because wind speed is only one of a number of factors that make hurricanes destructive, including the storm surge and rainfall potential, as well as how long it stalls over one spot.

Dorian stalked the Bahamas for a highly unusual 18 hours, during which time it dumped in excess of 24 inches (60 cm) of rainfall, according to NASA data.

The archipelago's northernmost island also experienced storm surges estimated by the NHC at 10- to 15-foot (3m to 4.5m) above tide levels. At least five people have so far been reported killed, though the toll is expected to rise.

- Hurricanes that stall -

While over the Bahamas, Dorian's forward motion was at times just one mile per hour, heightening its destruction and making it harder for forecasters to predict its future path.

Kristy Dahl, a climate scientist with US advocacy group the Union of Concerned Scientists, told AFP hurricanes that stall for a long time are becoming more common, and recent studies show the phenomenon could be linked to man-made climate change.

The temperature contrast between the planet's higher and lower latitudes is the main driver of wind. Scientists suspect that because the Arctic regions are warming faster than those at the equator, global atmospheric circulation is also falling.

Before Dorian, Harvey loitered in Texas in 2017, while Florence stalled over North Carolina last September.

A study by NASA and NOAA scientists published in June found that between 1944 and 2017, the average forward speed of hurricanes decreased by 17 percent, from 11.5 mph, to 9.6 mph.

- Climate change supercharging storms -

While the science linking climate change and hurricane stalling is cutting-edge and still under discussion, there is a far more broad consensus on the other ways that global warming is supercharging storms.

The overall number of hurricanes is not increasing, but more are going on to become powerful Category 4 and 5 storms.

There are three main factors, according to Dahl. First, the excess heat from global warming has primarily been absorbed by the oceans, meaning that storms pass over warmer water carrying more potential energy that translates into rainfall and stronger winds.

"The warming has been even more pronounced in the Atlantic Ocean, which has warmed by about 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit (0.3 degrees Celsius) per decade since the 1970s," Dahl wrote in a blog post.

Secondly, rising sea levels make the storm surges higher and more extensive. And thirdly, warmer air holds more moisture -- an example of which was seen during Hurricane Harvey, which dumped 60 inches of rainfall.

A study by US federal researchers published in the influential journal Nature in February identified another trend: hurricanes are increasingly undergoing "rapid intensification" over a short period of time, with the scientists linking the phenomenon to man-made climate change.

Dorian also rapidly intensified not once but twice over this weekend.

"The percentage of Atlantic hurricanes that have experienced rapid intensification has tripled since the 1980s, it's not something that we can explain by natural climate variability," said Dahl.

Bahamas minister says more deaths expected from Hurricane Dorian

Thu, 05 SEP 2019 08:05:59 AEST

Coconut Grove, United States (AFP) Sept 3, 2019 - Hurricane Dorian weakened slightly as it crawled towards the southeast coast of the United States on Tuesday after leaving at least five people dead and a swathe of destruction in the Bahamas.

Bahamas National Security Minister Marvin Dames said several children were among the dead in the Atlantic archipelago and "unfortunately, we will see more deaths."

"I can't see any way out of it," the Nassau Guardian newspaper quoted Dames as telling reporters.

"This was a crisis of epic proportions," he said. "Maybe the worst that we've experienced, certainly in our lifetime."

Video footage showed catastrophic damage from the powerful hurricane on the islands of Grand Bahama and Great Abaco in the northern Bahamas including shattered homes, fields of debris and flooded streets.

The runways at Grand Bahama International Airport in Freeport, the island's largest city, were under water, complicating rescue efforts.

The US Coast Guard sent MH-60 Jayhawk helicopters to Andros Island in the southern Bahamas to help with search and rescue operations as residents trapped in their homes by floodwaters issued distress calls.

Ken Graham, director of the Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC), said Dorian was on the move after being "stationary for more than 24 hours battering the Bahamas."

Dorian, which has dumped as much as 30 inches (76 centimeters) of rain on the Bahamas, was downgraded Tuesday morning from a Category 3 to a Category 2 storm on the five-level wind scale.

But it remained an extremely dangerous hurricane as it crept towards the coast of the southern US states of Florida, Georgia and South and North Carolina.

A state of emergency has been declared up and down the coast for millions of US coastal residents in the path of the monster storm.

- 'Still raining' -

At 11:00 am (1500 GMT), Dorian was packing maximum sustained winds of 110 miles (175 kilometers) per hour, down from 115 mph, the NHC said.

Dorian was located about 105 miles east of Fort Pierce, Florida, and moving in a northwesterly direction towards the Florida coast at a snail's pace of two mph, it said.

The NHC said Grand Bahama Island was continuing to experience dangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge and extreme flooding from the heavy rain.

The hazardous conditions would continue through much of Tuesday on Grand Bahama, which is the northernmost island in the archipelago, the NHC said.

It said Dorian was expected to pick up speed and grow in size during the day and turn towards the north on Wednesday evening.

"The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday and Thursday night," the NHC said.

Yasmin Rigby, a resident of Freeport, the largest city in the Bahamas, told AFP by text message on Tuesday that "most of the island is still flooded" and it was "still raining with gusty winds."

"I am still getting calls from people calling for help," Rigby said. "I cannot move from my apartment. Thankfully we have sufficient supplies."

In Coconut Grove, Florida, which has a sizeable population from the Bahamas, residents were collecting supplies for hurricane victims.

"We are looking for cases of water, canned food, can openers, flashlights, baby formula, diapers, mosquito repellent, small generators," said Nathaniel Robinson, the pastor of the Greater St Paul AME church.

Robinson said seven seaplanes were on standby to deliver the supplies "when the weather permits."

"Hopefully tomorrow," he said.

- 'Lost everything' -

Robinson said some church members have family who were "devastated by the storm."

"Some have lost everything they own," he said. "Their homes, any forms of transportation, businesses. They have absolutely nothing."

Henry Gomez, who was visiting Florida from New York, was among those dropping off supplies. "I feel bad for the Bahamas, what they're going through right now," Gomez said. "We all have to chip in and help."

Florida has started to feel the effects of Dorian, with heavy rain and strong gusts of wind reported.

Florida senator and former governor Rick Scott wrote on Twitter that "a slight wobble West" would bring the storm "on shore with devastating consequences."

"If you're in an evacuation zone, get out NOW. We can rebuild your home. We can't rebuild your life."

Slow-crawling Dorian a new kind of threat
Washington (AFP) Sept 3, 2019 - After devastating the Bahamas, Dorian is continuing its long crawl toward the southeast US with slightly weakened winds.

So what has made this relatively small hurricane so destructive?

- Packing a punch -

First place is still held by 1980's Allen, which had maximum sustained winds of 190 mph.

Dorian is also the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in the Bahamas by pressure.

From its peak as a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, it has weakened to a Category 2 storm, but the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) has warned Americans to not take it lightly.

That's because wind speed is only one of a number of factors that make hurricanes destructive, including the storm surge and rainfall potential, as well as how long it stalls over one spot.

Dorian stalked the Bahamas for a highly unusual 18 hours, during which time it dumped in excess of 24 inches (60 cm) of rainfall, according to NASA data.

- Hurricanes that stall -

While over the Bahamas, Dorian's forward motion was at times just one mile per hour, heightening its destruction and making it harder for forecasters to predict its future path.

Before Dorian, Harvey loitered in Texas in 2017, while Florence stalled over North Carolina last September.

A study by NASA and NOAA scientists published in June found that between 1944 and 2017, the average forward speed of hurricanes decreased by 17 percent, from 11.5 mph, to 9.6 mph.

- Climate change supercharging storms -

The overall number of hurricanes is not increasing, but more are going on to become powerful Category 4 and 5 storms.

"The warming has been even more pronounced in the Atlantic Ocean, which has warmed by about 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit (0.3 degrees Celsius) per decade since the 1970s," Dahl wrote in a blog post.

Dorian also rapidly intensified not once but twice over this weekend.

"The percentage of Atlantic hurricanes that have experienced rapid intensification has tripled since the 1980s, it's not something that we can explain by natural climate variability," said Dahl.

Florida is ready, but where is the hurricane?
Port Saint Lucie, United States (AFP) Sept 3, 2019 - Houses and businesses are boarded up, bridges to barrier islands are blocked and many residents of Florida's beachside communities are long gone.