Subscribe to our free daily newsletters
. Earth Science News .




Subscribe to our free daily newsletters



WATER WORLD
Evaluating forecasting models for predicting rainfall from tropical cyclones
by Staff Writers
Iowa City IA (SPX) Oct 19, 2016


Rainfall accumulation (in millimeters) for Hurricane Irene (Aug. 26-30, 2011). The red curve with circles represents the storm's track. Image courtesy of Gabriele Villarini. For a larger version of this image please go here.

Many people know that tropical cyclones and hurricanes cause high winds and storm surges. But two of their other effects, heavy rainfall and inland flooding, can be just as dangerous and impact larger areas. Most recently, inland rainfall produced by Hurricane Matthew has caused record flooding in North Carolina, with the levels of some already swollen rivers and streams continuing to rise.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), more than 50 percent of the deaths associated with hurricanes from 1970 to 2004 were caused by fresh water flooding. And from 1981 to 2011, hurricane damage accounted for almost half--$417.9 billion--of the total monetary damage from all weather and climate disasters during that same time period (adjusted for inflation to 2011 dollars).

With the goal of providing basic information to help improve preparedness and mitigation efforts, new University of Iowa-led research published online in September in the Journal of Hydrology examined how accurate current forecasting systems are in predicting rainfall from North Atlantic tropical cyclones that reach land in the United States.

Comparing five state-of-the-art weather prediction models, researchers found current models can forecast both where and how much rainfall a tropical cyclone will produce up to two days in advance. However, the forecast's accuracy decreased significantly when the prediction window increased to five days. The researchers' findings were based on 15 North Atlantic hurricanes that came within at least 500 kilometers of the U.S. coastline from 2007 to 2012.

Gabriele Villarini, UI associate professor of civil and environmental engineering and corresponding author on the paper, says researchers honed in on predicting the impacts of tropical cyclones because that information is generally more useful than typical forecasts that predict how many storms are expected in a season.

"The more specific the information we can provide is, the more useful it will be. This is why we have been moving toward predicting U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone activity and the associated rainfall," he says.

Villarini, also an associate research engineer at the UI's renowned Iowa Flood Center, says while a 48-hour lead time is a good starting point in terms of warning, he will continue to conduct more research to improve these predictions.

"By improving our understanding of the processes that drive tropical cyclones and hurricanes, we will be better positioned to improve our ability to forecast these events and their impacts with longer and longer lead times," he says.

Gabriel Vecchi, head of the climate variations and predictability group at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab and another author on the paper, says decades of weather prediction data show that forecasts have improved--and will improve--as scientists learn more about hurricanes.

"We can't do anything about the past," he says. "The goal of this work is to provide better information in the future."

Vecchi, who has collaborated with Villarini on several research projects, says he values the expertise in flooding and hydrology that Villarini and the Iowa Flood Center bring to their partnership.

"This is one of these examples of interdisciplinary work that has been incredibly fruitful," he says.

The paper also was authored by Beda Luitel while he was a graduate student at the UI.


Thanks for being here;
We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain.

With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords.

Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year.

If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.

SpaceDaily Contributor
$5 Billed Once


credit card or paypal
SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter
$5 Billed Monthly


paypal only

.


Related Links
University of Iowa
Water News - Science, Technology and Politics






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

Previous Report
WATER WORLD
In drought, Los Angeles grapples with water-guzzling rich
Los Angeles (AFP) Oct 15, 2016
Their California mansions, lush with green lawns and vegetation, guzzle as much water as 90 homes - but the astronomical bills are a drop in the bucket for them. After years of searing drought in the state, authorities and activists are scrambling to find ways to get the ultra-rich to turn off their sprinklers and get on board with conservation efforts. Some, like the news site Reveal, ... read more


WATER WORLD
Impact of the Fukushima accident on marine life, five years later

Haiti hurricane victims lose hope of receiving aid

Power impact from Matthew nowhere near Hurricane Sandy

UN worried over attacks on aid convoys in hurricane-hit Haiti

WATER WORLD
Lego-like wall produces acoustic holograms

U.S. State Dept. approves $194 million radar sale to Kuwait

Pushing the boundaries of magnet design

Polymer breakthrough to improve things we use everyday

WATER WORLD
Historical Records May Underestimate Sea Level Rise

Evaluating forecasting models for predicting rainfall from tropical cyclones

Coatian Navy receives autonomous underwater vehicles

Sharks are beautiful, diver says despite narrow escape

WATER WORLD
NASA Launches Eighth Year of Antarctic Ice Change Airborne Survey

Scientists launch unprecedented Antarctic research mission

Future of Antarctic marine protected at risk

Antarctica is practically defined by ice. What happens when it melts?

WATER WORLD
Model predicts spread of harmful plant pathogen around the globe

Plants actively direct their seeds via wind or water towards suitable sites

Small-scale agriculture threatens the rainforest

Massive US health tab for hormone-disrupting chemicals

WATER WORLD
Millions in Philippines on alert for super typhoon

Honduras alert over heavy rains

Super typhoon smashes northern Philippines

Vietnam floods kill 25 as new typhoon approaches

WATER WORLD
Mozambique peace talks resume after negotiator's murder

20 dead in Pygmy-Bantu caterpillar clashes in DR Congo

Mali governor visits troubled region for first time in years

Three Burkinabe troops killed in attack near Mali border

WATER WORLD
Female chimpanzees don't fight for 'queen bee' status

New tools identify key evolutionary advantages from ancient hominid interbreeding

Capuchin monkey observed making stone flakes in Brazil

Wild chimpanzee mothers teach young to use tools, video study confirms




Memory Foam Mattress Review
Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News






The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2017 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement