Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. Earth Science News .


Subscribe free to our newsletters via your




















WEATHER REPORT
Longer-term weather forecasts will provide enormous benefit
by Staff Writers
Washington DC (SPX) Mar 30, 2016


File image.

Weather and environmental forecasts made several weeks to months in advance can someday be as widely used and essential as current predictions of tomorrow's weather are, but first more research and sustained investment are needed, says a new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The committee that conducted the study and wrote the report developed a research agenda, outlining strategies to address the scientific and capability gaps that currently limit the accuracy and usefulness of long-term weather and ocean predictions.

Extending short-term forecasts to predict Earth system conditions - conditions in the atmosphere, ocean, or land surface - two weeks to 12 months into the future will help decision makers, such as local officials, farmers, military officers, or water resource managers, plan ahead and save lives, protect property, and increase economic vitality. For example, naval and commercial shipping routes could be better planned to avoid hazards or take advantage of favorable conditions predicted for the weeks ahead.

"We have a bold vision that subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, which look two weeks to up to a year in advance, will be as widely used a decade from now as daily and weekly weather forecasts are today," said committee chair Raymond J. Ban, Ban and Associates, LLC.

"Even if such information never matches the level of confidence associated with tomorrow's weather forecast, it could still be used by individuals, businesses, and governments to make a large array of important decisions. The path to realizing this vision and its inherent value will require focused effort on Earth system processes and predictions by both physical and social scientists. It's time to step up investment in building next-generation Earth system prediction capabilities."

The report outlines a 10-year agenda with four research strategies to make seasonal and subseasonal forecasts more accurate and relevant.

The first strategy is to better engage the community that uses forecast products, which includes resource managers, military planners, first responders, and other potential users across many sectors, the report says. Social and behavioral science research can help elucidate how current forecasts are being used and identify barriers that exist.

The subseasonal to seasonal research and operational prediction community should be engaged in an ongoing dialogue with user communities in order to match what is scientifically feasible with what users find actionable, as both technical forecasting capabilities and user needs continually evolve.

The second strategy is to focus on increasing the skill and accuracy of subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, the report says. This will require improvements in all parts of the forecast systems, including expanding observations, improving data assimilation methods, reducing model errors, and improving methods for quantifying uncertainties and verifying forecasts outcomes.

The committee's third research strategy is to focus on improving the forecasts of extreme and disruptive events, such as winter storms, excessive rainfall events, and intense heat waves, and the consequences of unanticipated events caused by outside forces such as volcanoes, meteor impacts, and oil spills. Improved prediction of extreme and disruptive events and of the consequences of unanticipated forcing events would give communities more time to plan ahead and mitigate.

The development of advanced Earth system model components beyond the lower atmosphere, which has been the traditional focus of numerical weather prediction, also requires more attention, the committee noted. The final research strategy calls for developing more sophisticated models of the ocean, land surface, and cryosphere and other Earth system components and expanding predictions to include more variables relevant to subseasonal and seasonal decision making, such as air quality and sea-ice characteristics, in forecast models.

The report notes these research strategies will all require advances in the U.S. computational infrastructure to support subseasonal to seasonal forecasting and a national plan and investment strategy for the future. The sheer volume of observational data, data assimilation steps, and model output involved in this forecasting challenges the limits of current cyber-infrastructure.

This growing subseasonal to seasonal field also needs a workforce able to cross traditional disciplinary boundaries within the Earth sciences, between computing and physical science fields, and to bridge the divide between researchers and decision makers.

.


Related Links
National Academy of Sciences
Weather News at TerraDaily.com






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

Previous Report
WEATHER REPORT
Science can now link climate change with some extreme weather events
University Park PA (SPX) Mar 15, 2016
Extreme weather events like floods, heat waves and droughts can devastate communities and populations worldwide. Recent scientific advances have enabled researchers to confidently say that the increased intensity and frequency of some, but not all, of these extreme weather events is influenced by human-induced climate change, according to an international National Academies of Science, Engineeri ... read more


WEATHER REPORT
TEPCO bungles Fukushima cleanup as robots damaged by Radiation

Insurance for an uncertain climate

Sierra Leone begins destroying stockpile of 'unuseable' arms

Prince Harry extends Nepal trip to help quake victims

WEATHER REPORT
A new model for how twisted bundles take shape

Local fingerprint of hydrogen bonding captured in experiments

Lehigh scientists extend the reach of single crystals

A new method of trapping multiple particles using fluidics

WEATHER REPORT
Bolivia to take Chile to court over water dispute

World's nations gather to rescue ocean life

Storing extra surface water boosts groundwater supply during droughts

Protecting coral reefs with bubbles

WEATHER REPORT
Greenland melting tied to shrinking Arctic sea ice

2016 Arctic Sea Ice Wintertime Extent Hits Another Record Low

Digging deeper: Study improves permafrost models, reduces uncertainties

A glance into the future of the Arctic

WEATHER REPORT
Greenhouse gas mitigation potential from livestock sector revealed

Ecological collapse circumscribes women's work in Mesopotamian marshes

Government use of technology has potential to increase food security

US senators see security risk in China's takeover of Syngenta

WEATHER REPORT
Ancient super-eruptions in Yellowstone much larger than expected

Wetland enhancement in Midwest could help reduce catastrophic floods of the future

Pakistan rains leave 42 dead: officials

Japan's tsunami: Five things after five years

WEATHER REPORT
Nigerian troops free 800 Boko Haram hostages: army

Burundi soldier kills colonel blamed in crackdown: source

Niger president scores landslide win in boycotted run-off

Kenya army says killed 34 Shebab in Somalia firefights

WEATHER REPORT
Australopithecus fossils found east of the Great Rift Valley

Human ancestors explored 'out of Africa' despite impaired nasal faculties

Caveman's best friends? Preserved Ice Age puppies awe scientists

World map of Neanderthal and Denisovan ancestry in modern humans




Memory Foam Mattress Review
Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News








The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2016 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement All images and articles appearing on Space Media Network have been edited or digitally altered in some way. Any requests to remove copyright material will be acted upon in a timely and appropriate manner. Any attempt to extort money from Space Media Network will be ignored and reported to Australian Law Enforcement Agencies as a potential case of financial fraud involving the use of a telephonic carriage device or postal service.