According to the study, some 2,000 people would be killed due to damage to buildings, with another 2,700 others forecast to die in subsequent fires in the Tokyo metropolitan area which has 35 million residents, the official said.

The estimated jolt is also projected to halt some 9,500 of 14,500 elevators in the metropolis of towering skyscrapers.

The death toll is down from an estimate last year by the central government which said a 7.3 earthquake would kill 13,000 people and inflict 112 trillion yen (950 billion dollars) in damage.

"The calculation is based on more realistic conditions," the metropolitan official said of the new study.

Japan, which lies at the crossing of four tectonic plates, endures about 20 percent of the world's powerful earthquakes, frequently jolting Tokyo and other major cities where buildings are made to be tremor-resistant.

The last major tremor in Tokyo was the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923 which left 142,807 people dead or unaccounted for. Japan marks the September 1 anniversary with nationwide disaster preparation drills.

The 7.3 earthquake magnitude in the Tokyo study is the same as recorded in the western city of Kobe on January 17, 1995. That earthquake killed 6,433 people.

According to a government survey released in September, almost two-thirds of Japanese fear a huge earthquake will strike in the next decade but some 30 percent of respondents are still unprepared for the dreaded "Big One".

Japan has long prided itself on building a quake-proof infrastructure. However, the safety myth has been shattered after an cost-cutting architect admitted in November he falsified data on some 100 condominiums and hotels.

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