"We are likely to see above average numbers of tropical cyclones in several parts of the South Pacific," he said.

Island nations to the east of the dateline, including Fiji, Tonga, Wallis and Futuna, Niue, and the southern Cook Islands were identified as those likely to be most seriously affected. "There is a good chance that the first tropical cyclone of the coming season in the South Pacific region may occur before the end of November, about a month earlier than is normal," he said.

Salinger said about 10 tropical cyclones can be expected on average in the Southwest Pacific during a weak El Nino season, with about half reaching hurricane force with mean wind speeds at least 118 kilometres an hour (73 mile per hour).

Last year saw cyclones Larry and Monica wreak havoc in Queensland and the Northern Territory of Australia.

Strong typhoon en route to hit Tokyo
Tokyo (AFP) Sep 21 - Another strong typhoon, packing winds of 170 kilometers (105 miles) an hour, was headed Thursday toward Tokyo and could hit the capital over the weekend, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.

Typhoon Yagi was on track Friday to become a "super-typhoon" with gusts of 285 kilometers (176 miles) an hour and 12-meter (39-foot) waves at its eye, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center run by Japan and the US Navy.

Yagi, which means goat in Japanese, is the 14th typhoon of the season.

It was moving at 30 kilometers an hour in the Pacific Ocean. Late Thursday, it was near the tiny Hahajima and Chichijima islands 1,000 kilometers southwest of Tokyo, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.

The typhoon was on route to hit Tokyo on Sunday, the agency said.

Japan last weekend was struck by Typhoon Shanshan which killed nine people, injured 300 others and forced the evacuation of 100,000 people.

Related Links
New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
A world of storm and tempest