Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. Earth Science News .




Subscribe free to our newsletters via your




















EPIDEMICS
Stanford researchers analyze what a warming planet means for mosquito-borne diseases
by Staff Writers
Stanford CA (SPX) May 04, 2017


"If we're predicting a 29 degree optimum and another model is predicting a 35 degree optimum, the other model will say that climate change will increase transmission," she said, pointing out that if local temperatures are already close to the optimal temperature, infection may, in fact, go down as temperatures rise.

As temperatures rise with climate change, mosquito season extends past the summer months in many parts of the world. The question has been how this lengthened season influences the risk of being infected with mosquito-born diseases such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika.

Now, in a paper published on April 27 in PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Stanford researchers modeled how rising temperatures might influence mosquito behavior and disease risk around the world. The researchers also calibrated their model with field data on human infections of mosquito-borne diseases.

"Dengue epidemics have been on the rise in the past couple decades so there's been a growing effort trying to understand why we're seeing more dengue, and what the relationship is between dengue transmission and climate," said study lead author Erin Mordecai, an assistant professor of biology.

The ideal temperature
Temperature controls several factors that underlie the time it takes for a virus to be transmittable to humans. These include how long it takes for a mosquito to ingest a virus during one feeding and then be ready to inject it in a later feeding; the length of the mosquito's life cycle; and how often mosquitoes bite.

"All these traits rely on temperature, but they tend to be nonlinear," Mordecai said. "They increase to a point and then drop off." The group found that mosquito traits favorable to spreading disease peaked when temperatures reached 29 degrees Celsius (84 degrees Fahrenheit), but were lower when temperatures were cooler or warmer.

When Mordecai looked at transmission of dengue, chikungunya and Zika in people, those results matched what her models predicted. She said that if you graph how transmission rates change with temperature, you get a bell-shaped curve peaking at 29 degrees C.

Predicting future outbreaks
Knowing the optimal temperature for disease transmission is critical for predicting future disease rates, Mordecai said. Before this study, she said, there was a wide range of temperature predictions from other researchers.

"If we're predicting a 29 degree optimum and another model is predicting a 35 degree optimum, the other model will say that climate change will increase transmission," she said, pointing out that if local temperatures are already close to the optimal temperature, infection may, in fact, go down as temperatures rise.

The information can also help predict how and where disease might spread with climate change. "We really want to build more predictive models that take climate information and make predictions about when and where we can invest in vector control to try to prevent epidemics," Mordecai said.

This kind of planning is especially important in countries that have lower socioeconomic levels. "Concentrated urban poverty is really where you see a lot of vector-borne disease transmission," Mordecai said.

She explained that the mosquito that carries dengue, chikungunya and Zika is an opportunist - it will breed in any water container it can find, from bottle caps to water storage basins. "You tend to see a lot of people exposed to a lot of mosquitoes in places where access to piped water is not reliable, because storage basins are where people are storing water."

Mordecai knows there is more work to be done with mosquito-borne illnesses. "There's lots of discussion about what's going to be the next thing. What's the next Zika?" She said this model will help researchers predict when and where transmission of the next Zika might happen - and allow enough time to prepare for the event.

EPIDEMICS
Suspected meningitis epidemic kills 745 in Nigeria
Abuja (AFP) April 19, 2017
A meningitis outbreak in Nigeria has killed 745 people, an increase of more than 50 percent in barely a week, officials said Wednesday, sounding the alarm over the feared epidemic. "We need all hands on deck," said Chikwe Ihekweazu, head of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) as the federal government announced the latest toll from the outbreak, which has mostly affected children. ... read more

Related Links
Stanford University
Epidemics on Earth - Bird Flu, HIV/AIDS, Ebola

Thanks for being here;
We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain.

With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords.

Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year.

If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.

SpaceDaily Contributor
$5 Billed Once


credit card or paypal
SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter
$5 Billed Monthly


paypal only

Comment using your Disqus, Facebook, Google or Twitter login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

EPIDEMICS
Marine Le Pen: far-right firebrand who has shaken up French politics

New fiber-based sensor could quickly detect structural problems in bridges and dams

20 sentenced to prison for deadly 2015 China landslide

Affluent countries contribute less to wildlife conservation than the rest of the world

EPIDEMICS
Researchers develop eco-friendly 4-in-1 catalyst

Fabrication technology in the fourth dimension

First result from Jefferson Lab's upgraded CEBAF opens door to exploring universal glue

Researchers develop recycling for carbon fiber composites

EPIDEMICS
New method can selectively remove micropollutants from water

Puerto Rico drinking water is worst in US: report

Lake water recharged by atmospheric precipitation in the Badain Jaran Desert

Australian scientists say shark cull could wreck marine ecosystems

EPIDEMICS
Montana's glaciers are disappearing

Russia and climate change follow Tillerson to Arctic

Scientists find rare 'dragon skin' ice in Antarctica

Satellites track Antarctic ice loss over decades

EPIDEMICS
Tillage farming damaging earthworm populations

Syngenta shareholders accept ChemChina offer

Conservation agriculture offers tired soil remedies

Can edible insects help curb global warming?

EPIDEMICS
Canada's army rolls in after devastating floods

Strong quake hits southern Japan, no tsunami risk

Earthquake kills eight in western China: report

Climate change, tornadoes and mobile homes: A dangerous mix

EPIDEMICS
Former rebels block entrance to I. Coast's second city

Army to protect Tunisia economy from protests: president

UN chief condemns attack that killed four peacekeepers in C. Africa

Mozambique's opposition extends truce indefinitely

EPIDEMICS
Modern DNA reveals ancient origins of Indian population

Homo naledi's surprisingly young age opens up more questions on where we come from

Population growth, spread responsible for human advancement

Brazil's indigenous leader Raoni: youths losing their culture




Memory Foam Mattress Review
Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News






The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2017 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement