Free Newsletters - Space News - Defense Alert - Environment Report - Energy Monitor
. Earth Science News .




WATER WORLD
Ups-and-downs of Indian monsoon rainfall likely to increase under warming
by Staff Writers
Potsdam, Germany (SPX) Jun 24, 2013


File image courtesy AFP.

The Indian monsoon is a complex system which is likely to change under future global warming. While it is in the very nature of weather to vary, the question is how much and whether we can deal with it. Extreme rainfall, for example, bears the risk of flooding, and crop failure.

Computer simulations with a comprehensive set of 20 state-of-the-art climate models now consistently show that Indian monsoon daily variability might increase, according to a study just published by scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

"Increased variability - this rather technical term translates into potentially severe impacts on people who cannot afford additional loss," says Anders Levermann, one of the study's authors and co-chair of PIK's research domain Sustainable Solutions.

"The fact that all these different models agree is a clear message that adaptation measures can be built on." Even if seasonal mean precipitation would remain unchanged, impacts could be substantial, Levermann points out.

"Focusing on the average is not always useful. If rainfall comes in a spell and is followed by a drought, this can be devastating even if the average is normal. This requires the right kind of adaptation measures that account for this variability - such as intelligent insurance schemes, for example."

"Limiting global warming is key, adaptation cannot replace but rather complement it"

The strongest change of 13 to 50 percent is found in a scenario in which greenhouse gases continue to be emitted unabated. However, even if global warming would be limited to the internationally acknowledged threshold of 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, this would bear the risk of additional day-to-day variability between 8 and 24 percent above the pre-industrial level, according to the analysis. "So limiting global warming is key to reduce day-to-day monsoon variability, adaptation cannot replace but rather complement it," says Levermann.

The researchers focused on the ten models with the most realistic monsoon pattern - a conservative approach, as these ten models yield generally lower rates of change. The other ten models showed higher rates of change. "This is not about exact percentages. It is the clear trend that conveys the message," says Arathy Menon, lead-author of the study.

The scientists used the latest ensemble of climate models, prepared for the 5th assessement report of the International Panel on Climate Change. All of them show increased variability.

"This is a robust indicator"
Taking into account all 20 models, the spread of results reduces when the scientists looked at the rainfall changes per degree of global warming independent of the exact time path of the warming. The consistent result is that 4 to 12 percent variability change of daily monsoon rainfall in India are to be expected per degree Celsius of warming. "This is a robust indicator," says Menon.

About 80 percent of annual rainfall in India occur during the monsoon season from June through September. Factors that could perturb rainfall regularity include the higher holding capacity of moisture of the warmer air, but also more complex phenomena like cooling in the higher atmosphere which changes current pressure and thereby rainfall patterns.

Article: Menon, A., Levermann, A., Schewe, J. (2013): Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season. Geophysical Research Letters (online) [DOI: 10.1002/grl.50583].

.


Related Links
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Water News - Science, Technology and Politics






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle




Memory Foam Mattress Review
Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News





WATER WORLD
Research shows river dredging reduced fish numbers, diversity
University Park PA (SPX) Jun 17, 2013
Comparing dredged and undredged sections of the Allegheny River, reduced populations of fish and less variety of aquatic life occurred in areas where gravel extraction took place, according to researchers in Penn State's College of Agricultural Sciences,. The researchers investigated navigation pools 7 and 8 near Kittanning and Templeton and published their results in the journal Freshwate ... read more


WATER WORLD
WIN-T Increment 1 Enables National Guard to Restore Vital Network Communications Following a Disaster

Australia costs from natural disasters to soar: study

Satellite data will be essential to future of groundwater, flood and drought management

China work safety probe finds 'many' problems: official

WATER WORLD
Noble gases hitch a ride on hydrous minerals

'Chemical architects' build materials with potential applications in drug delivery and gas storage

Researchers Propose New Method for Achieving Nonlinear Optical Effects

Unexpected behavior of well-known catalysts

WATER WORLD
Fiji's Air Pacific bans 'unsustainable' shark fins

Ups-and-downs of Indian monsoon rainfall likely to increase under warming

Looking at sachet water consumption in Ghana

Natural Underwater Springs Show How Coral Reefs Respond to Ocean Acidification

WATER WORLD
The rhythm of the Arctic summer

Global cooling as significant as global warming

Warm ocean drives most Antarctic ice shelf loss

Jet stream changes cause climatically exceptional Greenland Ice Sheet melt

WATER WORLD
Pesticides tainting traditional China herbs: Greenpeace

Research suggests plants capable of employing quantum physics

Talks on EU agriculture policy reforms in make-or-break stage

African palm oil makers hit back at global 'smear campaign'

WATER WORLD
India flood rescue ops intensify, up to 1,000 feared dead

Flooding in Canada forces evacuation in another city

Tropical storm Barry kills three in Mexico

Alberta faces '10-year recovery' after flood: Redford

WATER WORLD
Uganda president's son denies plan to succeed father

Africa juggles East and West, as Obama comes to visit

In Ghana's gold country, Chinese miners flee crackdown

DEA boosts fight against West African narco-terrorists

WATER WORLD
New frontier for cybersecurity: your body

What do memories look like?

Professor finds prehistoric rock art connected; maps cosmological belief

New research backs theory that genetic 'switches' play big role in human evolution




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement