![]() |
Beijing (AFP) Nov 4, 2009 The World Bank Wednesday upgraded its 2009 growth forecast for China to 8.4 percent on the back of huge public spending but said stronger domestic demand was needed to ensure a sustainable recovery. The new prediction by the Washington-based lender in its quarterly update marked a sharp jump from its June forecast for 7.2 percent growth. Economic growth in the Asian giant could hit 8.7 percent in 2010, it added. "2009 has shown that even in a very difficult global situation, China can still grow quite robustly," World Bank senior economist Louis Kuijs, the main author of the report, told a news conference. "Of course in 2009 emergency measures have been used and you can not continue to use (them) for a long time." The upgrade by the World Bank follows similar moves by the International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank after the rapid turnaround in the world's third largest economy caught economists somewhat by surprise. The strength of the Chinese economy has underpinned a "surprisingly swift" rebound in developing East Asia, the bank said, upgrading its 2009 growth forecast for the region to 6.7 percent from 5.3 percent in April. Kuijs said it would be "easy" for China to achieve Beijing's oft-stated goal of eight percent growth this year. This pace of growth is seen as vital for job creation and warding off social unrest in the country of 1.3 billion people. But he warned a successful rebalancing of the economy was needed to ensure a sustainable recovery in the medium term. "Now the government has basically succeeded in dampening the impact of the global crisis, it is a good time to concentrate ... on rebalancing the economy and getting more growth out of the domestic economy on a sustainable basis," he said. "This calls for more emphasis on consumption and services and less emphasis on investment and industry." China grew by 8.9 percent in the third quarter -- the fastest pace in a year -- after expanding by 7.9 percent in the second quarter and 6.1 percent in the first three months, the slowest pace in more than a decade. The recovery has been driven by a four-trillion-yuan (586-billion-dollar) stimulus package unveiled a year ago and a record 8.67 trillion yuan in bank lending in the first nine months of 2009. China was expected to grow in 2010 even as public spending slowed, the bank said, as demand for Chinese-made goods overseas picked up. "In 2010 the composition of growth is likely to change ... Exports will probably stop being a drag on growth from end-2009 onwards and real estate investment looks set to be stronger," the bank said in the report. "However, government-influenced investment, the key driver of growth this year, is bound to decelerate (and) market-based investment is likely to continue to feel negative pressure from the significant spare capacity in many manufacturing sectors." "In all, we expect GDP growth to rise somewhat in 2010, with risks evenly balanced." The bank said it saw no need yet for macroeconomic policies to be tightened while risks and uncertainties in the global economy remained high. "Underlying inflation is not a concern for now. A somewhat supportive policy stance is appropriate, and it is particularly important to have flexibility to add or subtract support if needed," the bank said.
related report The green light for the park, which would be one of the biggest ever foreign investments in China, comes less than two weeks before US President Barack Obama makes his first official visit here, starting November 15 in Shanghai. Neither side disclosed any figures or gave a time frame for the project, but previous reports have said the US entertainment giant will invest 3.6 billion dollars in the 10-square-kilometre (four-square mile) park. "China is one of the most dynamic, exciting and important countries in the world, and this approval marks a very significant milestone for The Walt Disney Company in mainland China," Walt Disney Co. president and CEO Robert Iger said. Approval of the project would "enable Disney and its Shanghai partners to move forward toward a final agreement to build and operate the park and begin preliminary development work," the California-based firm said in a statement. The new Chinese venture would be a "Magic Kingdom-style theme park with characteristics tailored to the Shanghai region," it added. Authorities in Beijing approved the Disney project application report (PAR) late last month, and both sides "started in-depth talks" about detailed plans for the park in the city's Pudong New district, the Shanghai government said. A Shanghai-based Disney executive told AFP on Wednesday: "It's just a PAR and not the final deal yet." When asked how long negotiations -- already in progress for a decade -- could last, the executive said: "It may take several more months." China's official Xinhua news agency, quoting Shanghai municipal officials, said "several big state-owned firms" would form a joint venture with Walt Disney to invest in the project. Analysts say the Shanghai park would be part of a major push by Disney into China, to build the iconic brand in the world's most populous nation of 1.3 billion people. "The Disney park will become a huge advertisement and a landmark project," Wang Liang, deputy head of the Shanghai Circulation Economics Research Institute, a think-tank linked to the city government, told AFP. "Disney is not just eyeing the output from the park itself. Rather, it aims to cultivate little consumers, cultivate children's loyalty to the Disney and Mickey Mouse brands. Profits would then come from the relevant stationery, garments and toys." Disney is one of the most active foreign entertainment companies in China, with more than 600 employees in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou, according to corporate data. Its products are sold in 5,000 branded, free-standing locations and retail corners in more than 25 Chinese cities. Last year, the company launched its first English learning centre in Shanghai for children aged two to 10. The park would be the fourth for Disney outside the United States and the third in Asia, after Tokyo, Paris and Hong Kong, where an amusement park opened in 2005. Earlier reports said Disney had hoped to open the Shanghai park to coincide with next year's World Expo in the city, but that time frame has now been pushed back until at least 2012 or 2013. Wang said the amusement park would give China's financial centre a boost in terms of jobs creation and revenue, but not solely from the millions of tourists visiting the rides and attractions. "The revenue and new jobs from industries deriving from the Disney park, such as animation, will be much higher than tourists to the park itself. It will become an engine to drive relevant industries," Wang said. Hong Kong Disneyland has had a bumpy ride since opening its gates, with local lawmakers saying reportedly low attendance has not justified the huge public investment. But He Jianmin, a member of a task force organised by China's top economic planning agency to evaluate the Shanghai project, told AFP there were no such concerns about Disney's potential profitability on the mainland. "The Disney company has had to repeatedly look into that. Now, with the development of China's economy, it is no longer a big problem," He said. Share This Article With Planet Earth
Related Links The Economy
IMF warns over surge in Hong Kong property pricesHong Kong (AFP) Nov 3, 2009 The International Monetary Fund said Tuesday that Hong Kong faced a potential surge in property prices and endorsed a government plan to cool any overheating in the market. The Washington-based organisation's warning came as prices in the southern Chinese city soared with luxury developments up more than 40 percent since January this year. Concerns about the price spike -- largely driven ... read more |
. |
|
| The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2009 - SpaceDaily. AFP and UPI Wire Stories are copyright Agence France-Presse and United Press International. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by SpaceDaily on any Web page published or hosted by SpaceDaily. Privacy Statement |