The team focused on roughly 14,000 alien plant species that are already known to spread beyond their original ranges. Using more than 51 million occurrence records drawn from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, large databases and scientific literature, they modeled the climatic niche of each species and compared it with conditions in Arctic regions. The analysis identified 2,554 alien plant species that would find a suitable climatic niche in the Arctic today if they are transported there.

These species still need a way to reach the far north, but human activity is already providing many such pathways. One of the most probable transport mechanisms is unintentional hitchhiking with people, equipment, vehicles and cargo moving into the region for tourism, research, industry and settlement. "Our results show that alien species from virtually all over the world can find a niche in the Arctic. And with all the human activity in the Arctic now, there are lots of opportunities to get there," said associate professor Kristine Bakke Westergaard from the NTNU University Museum.

The researchers carried out what they describe as a horizon scan of potential new alien vascular plant species and their climatic niche space across the Arctic. First author Tor Henrik Ulsted, who recently completed a master's degree at NTNU and received the Faculty of Natural Science's award for a thesis contributing to sustainable development, led much of the data analysis. The resulting maps show hotspot areas where large numbers of alien species could tolerate the local climate if they arrive.

According to the study, northern Norway stands out as one of the Arctic's main hotspots for climatic suitability, reflecting both relatively mild conditions and intense human use. Other parts of the Arctic are not free from risk, however. "Our map shows hotspot areas in the Arctic where many alien species can tolerate the climate. The highest number of species are found in the north of Norway," Ulsted said. Even Svalbard, which is far north and sparsely vegetated, could support many potential newcomers under current conditions.

"Even in Svalbard, 86 alien species can find a climatic niche," Westergaard noted. In recent years, she and her colleagues have documented a surprisingly large number of alien species flourishing around Svalbard's settlements. In 2024, for example, they recorded common meadow rue, Thalictrum flavum, for the first time on Svalbard, where it was found in full bloom on a nutrient rich slope near Barentsburg. Such findings illustrate how quickly non native plants can arrive and establish when given suitable microhabitats and propagule pressure.

Rapid warming in the Arctic is amplifying these risks. As air and soil temperatures rise and growing seasons lengthen, more alien species that were previously limited by harsh conditions can potentially survive and reproduce. At the same time, tourism, shipping, research infrastructure and resource extraction continue to expand, increasing the volume of soil, seeds and plant material moved into the region. The combination of climatic opening and human vectors creates favorable conditions for large scale biological invasions.

The new study also aims to support authorities tasked with evaluating and managing these threats. In Norway and Svalbard, expert committees under the Norwegian Biodiversity Information Centre assess the ecological risk posed by alien species and maintain official risk lists. Westergaard explained that these committees have long struggled with the basic step of identifying which alien plants are relevant candidates for assessment in each area, given the sheer number of species worldwide.

By providing pre filtered lists of alien species that match the climatic conditions of specific Arctic regions, the horizon scan offers a practical starting point. The methodology allows experts to focus their detailed risk analyses on species that are actually likely to survive if introduced, rather than sifting through thousands of unlikely candidates. "Our long term goal is to help identify alien species before they become invasive and problematic," Ulsted said, emphasizing that early detection and prevention are far more effective than control efforts after invaders are well established.

The work is also designed to align with international and national policy frameworks on biodiversity. Westergaard noted that the approach supports the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which calls for reducing the threat from invasive alien species and specifically aims to halve the introduction and establishment of such species by 2030. The results can likewise inform the Norwegian government's action plan against harmful alien organisms, which sets out measures to prevent introductions, improve surveillance and manage high risk species.

Beyond Norway, the authors argue that similar horizon scanning tools can help other Arctic nations prioritize monitoring around high risk entry points such as ports, airports, tourist hubs and industrial sites. By coupling large biodiversity databases with climate niche models, managers can develop region specific watch lists and allocate limited resources more strategically. The study underscores that, in a rapidly changing Arctic, proactive planning and international cooperation will be critical to protect native ecosystems from an impending wave of botanical invaders.

Research Report:Horizon scanning of potential new alien vascular plant species and their climatic niche space across the Arctic

]]> Sat, 07 FEB 2026 10:20:12 AEST Copenhagen (AFP) Jan 29, 2026 - Denmark's foreign minister said Thursday he was "more optimistic" after technical talks kicked off with the United States over Greenland.

"We have had the very first meeting at senior official level in Washington yesterday regarding the Greenlandic issue," Lars Lokke Rasmussen told journalists at an EU meeting in Brussels.

"It went well in a very constructive atmosphere and tone, and new meetings are planned. It's not that things are solved, but it's good."

The trilateral talks come after US President Donald Trump last week backed down from his threats to seize the autonomous Arctic territory of EU and NATO member Denmark.

"There was a major detour. Things were escalating, but now we are back on track," Rasmussen said. "I'm slightly more optimistic today than a week ago."

Meanwhile, the Danish royal house also announced Thursday that King Frederik X would travel to Greenland on February 18 to show his "concern" for the island's inhabitants.

Trump's threats over Greenland plunged the transatlantic alliance into its deepest crisis in years.

The unpredictable US leader backed off his desire to take control of Greenland after saying he had struck a "framework" deal with NATO chief Mark Rutte to ensure greater American influence.

But few concrete details appear to have been agreed -- with authorities in Denmark and Greenland refusing to discuss handing over any sovereignty.

"I have stated on many occasions, we, of course, share the US security concerns regarding the Arctic, this is something we want to solve in close cooperation," Rasmussen said.

- 'Unfettered' access -

As part of the compromise with Washington, NATO members are expected to bolster their activities in the Arctic, while Denmark and Greenland could renegotiate a 1951 treaty on US troop deployments.

Louisiana governor Jeff Landry, who was named Trump's special envoy for Greenland in December said in an op-ed published in the New York Times that details were "being worked out".

"But the framework builds on the 1941 and 1951 defense agreements between the United States and Denmark and would enhance American, NATO and Greenlandic security and reaffirm longstanding trans-Atlantic defense obligations," Landry wrote.

"It would expand America's operational freedom, support new bases and infrastructure, facilitate deployment of advanced missile-defense systems like the Golden Dome and crowd out hostile Chinese and Russian influence," he explained.

At the same time, Landry stressed that "the reality is that no nation, or group of nations, is capable of securing Greenland without the United States."

Landry continued to add that Trump recognised the "uncomfortable fact" that "America must guarantee its own unfettered and uninterrupted access to key strategic territories in the Western Hemisphere, including both Greenland and the Panama Canal."

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday he expected a "good outcome" on Greenland as negotiations start.

Trump has repeatedly argued that the US needs the Arctic territory, home to some 57,000 inhabitants, for "national security".

In explaining his planned trip to Greenland, Denmark's King Frederik told reporters during a visit to Lithuania that "we feel very deeply for the Greenlandic people and we have been deeply affected by what has been happening in Greenland in recent weeks."

"We can sense from the media that the Greenlandic people have been very concerned. It is clear that this concerns us both," he added, referring to his wife, Queen Mary.

]]> Sat, 07 FEB 2026 10:20:12 AEST Paris, France (AFP) Jan 29, 2026 - Their icy hunting grounds are rapidly shrinking, but polar bears in Norway's remote Svalbard archipelago have defied the odds by bulking up instead of wasting away, a study said Thursday.

The Barents Sea has lost sea ice faster than other areas with polar bears as temperatures have risen there more than in other Arctic regions, according to the research published in the journal Scientific Reports.

But instead of growing leaner like polar bears in other parts of the Arctic where the sea ice where they hunt is retreating, those in Svalbard have gained body fat.

"The increase in body condition during a period of significant loss of sea ice was a surprise," Jon Aars, the study's lead author and a scientist at the Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI), told AFP.

Polar bears in Svalbard have become plumper by feasting on land-based prey such as reindeer and walruses -- species that have recovered after being over-exploited by humans, the study said.

Warmer temperatures have also made it easier for them to hunt ringed seals that now crowd in smaller sea ice areas.

- Rapid warming -

The scientists analysed the body condition index (BCI) of 770 adult bears between 1995 and 2019 to determine how much -- or how little -- fat they carry.

They found that their BCI fell until 2000 but increased in subsequent years despite a period of rapid loss of sea ice.

The total polar bear population of the Barents Sea was estimated at between 1,900 and 3,600 in 2004 and may have increased since then, the study said.

The increase in air temperature has been two to four times higher in the Arctic than the global average over recent decades.

The Barents Sea has experienced even greater increases in temperature than other regions in the Arctic over the past four decades, rising by up to 2C per decade in some areas.

The area has also lost sea ice habitat at a rate of four days per year between 1979 and 2014, more than twice as fast as other regions hosting polar bears, it said.

The Svalbard findings "may seem surprising because they contradict the results of studies conducted in other polar bear populations", said Sarah Cubaynes, a researcher at French environmental research centre CEFE who was not involved in the study.

The physical condition of polar bears in Hudson Bay, for example, "has greatly declined due to warming", Cubaynes told AFP.

- Bleaker future -

Had he been asked to predict when he started working at NPI in 2003 what would happen to the bears, Aars said he would have declared at the time that they "would likely be skinnier".

"And we see the opposite, bears are now in better condition, even though they are forced to be on land much more of the time, without the ability to hunt ringed seals," he said.

A deterioration in body condition is usually a sign of future demographic problems for these Arctic animals.

"When conditions get worse, with less access to food, we anticipate to first see that bears get skinnier, that they do not accumulate so much fat reserves," Aars said.

"This we expect to see before things get even worse, and survival and reproduction decreases significantly," he said.

The unexpected results in Svalbard underscore the importance of not extrapolating findings from one region to another, the study said.

The situation in Svalbard "indicates a complex relationship between habitat, ecosystem structure, energy intake, and energy expenditure", the authors wrote.

While Aars said the good body condition of Svalbard's polar bears is "good news", the study warned that they are "likely to be negatively affected in the near future" by a warming planet and shrinking sea ice.

The bears may still be able to prey on walruses and reindeer, but "we think they still depend on hunting seals on the ice", Aars said.

jmi/lt/np/fg

BCI NAVIGATION

]]> Sat, 07 FEB 2026 10:20:12 AEST Brussels, Belgium (AFP) Jan 23, 2026 - NATO chief Mark Rutte and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen agreed Friday the alliance should boost work on Arctic security, after US President Donald Trump backed off his threats to seize Greenland.

"We're working together to ensure that the whole of NATO is safe and secure and will build on our cooperation to enhance deterrence and defence in the Arctic," Rutte wrote on X after meeting Frederiksen in Brussels.

Frederiksen -- who was to travel to Greenland to meet its premier on Friday -- said "we agree that NATO should increase its engagement in the Arctic".

"Defence and security in the Arctic are matters for the entire alliance," she wrote on X.

The meeting came after Trump claimed he had struck a framework deal with Rutte on Wednesday that satisfied him after he made demands to take the autonomous Arctic territory from Denmark.

Trump backed off his threats to seize Greenland and impose tariffs on NATO allies blocking him despite not making headway on his main demand for control of the island.

Details of what, if anything, was agreed have not been made public -- but officials say NATO boosting security in the Arctic was part of the plan.

Frederiksen on Thursday said that NATO allies agreed on the need for a "permanent presence" in the Arctic, including around Greenland.

Members of the alliance have floated setting up a new NATO mission in the Arctic, but commanders say concrete planning has yet to start.

Officials familiar with Rutte's talks with Trump said that Denmark and the United States would look to renegotiate a 1951 pact governing American force deployments on Greenland.

That could allow Washington to boost its military footprint on the vast island, including potentially stationing parts of Trump's planned "Golden Dome" missile defence system.

NATO also said that the United States, Denmark and Greenland would negotiate on stepping up efforts to stop Russia and China gaining a "foothold" on the territory.

Trump used the alleged threat from both Moscow and Beijing to Greenland as a major justification for why he needed to take control.

Danish troops were combat ready in Greenland: report
Copenhagen (AFP) Jan 23, 2026 - Troops sent to Greenland by Copenhagen were ordered to be combat ready in case the United States attacked the autonomous Danish territory, Danish public broadcaster DR reported on Friday.

US President Donald Trump backed down on threats to seize Greenland by force after meeting NATO chief Mark Rutte on Wednesday, saying he had reached a "framework" of a deal on the Arctic island.

Prior to that, Trump had not ruled out the use of force, insisting that the US needed Greenland for "national security".

DR said a Danish military order last week said soldiers in Greenland should be equipped with live ammunition.

It also outlined a multi-phase operation that included the possibility of sending additional forces and assets later, if needed.

Civilian and military aircraft then began transporting soldiers and equipment to Greenland, according to DR.

The deployment was officially a part of the Danish-led military exercise Arctic Endurance -- which Copenhagen has said will continue "throughout large parts of the coming year."

A few days after Trump announced that the United States would get Greenland "one way or the other", eight European countries sent several dozen troops to Greenland, officially to prepare for the exercise.

Some have since departed, including a group of about 15 Germans and some Swedes, while others continue to arrive.

DR also reported wide political support, both from the Danish government and the opposition, to take up the fight in case of a US attack.

Speaking to reporters Friday, Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen declined to comment on the report.

]]> Sat, 07 FEB 2026 10:20:12 AEST Paris, France (AFP) Jan 28, 2026 - French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday a standoff with the United States over Greenland was "a strategic wake-up call for all of Europe" as he hosted the leaders of Denmark and the Danish autonomous territory for talks.

European powers have sought to join forces after US President Donald Trump roiled the transatlantic alliance by threatening to seize strategically-located and mineral-rich Greenland.

Speaking alongside the prime ministers of Denmark and Greenland, Mette Frederiksen and Jens-Frederik Nielsen, Macron said the "awakening" must focus "on asserting our European sovereignty, on our contribution to Arctic security, on the fight against foreign interference and disinformation, and on the fight against global warming."

He reaffirmed to Frederiksen and Nielsen France's solidarity and "its commitment to your sovereignty and territorial integrity."

"France will continue to defend these principles in accordance with the United Nations Charter," he added, expressing his support for increased NATO engagement in the Arctic.

"Greenland is not for sale, nor is it up for grabs. The Greenlanders will decide their own future," Macron said in the indigenous Greenlandic language.

He then switched to Danish, telling the prime minister that France would "be side-by-side" with the "Kingdom of Denmark".

In a gesture of solidarity, a modest number of military personnel were deployed to Greenland this month by a handful of European countries including France.

After European pushback, Trump backed down on the threat to take Greenland, which is located between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean, by military force.

On Tuesday, the French navy flagship, the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, set course for the Atlantic for pre-planned military exercises. Sources familiar with the matter told AFP that the carrier was being deployed to the North Atlantic.

- 'Greenland will never forget' -

Frederiksen said that recent weeks had shown that Europe can stand up for itself.

"The world order as we have known it is under pressure, it's changing rapidly," she added. "Maybe it's gone."

Nielsen, 34, thanked Macron for "standing by us without hesitation."

"We will in Greenland never forget it," he said.

He said cooperation with France was not only about Greenland.

"It goes beyond Greenland," Nielsen said. "For us, this is about the values in the world, our democracy."

Speaking earlier Wednesday, Frederiksen said that Europe needed to improve its defences "now" to become less reliant on the United States for military protection.

On Monday, NATO chief Mark Rutte told EU lawmakers to "keep on dreaming" if they thought Europe could defend itself without the United States.

In response to Rutte's comments, Frederiksen conceded it would be "extremely difficult" for Europe to defend itself now.

"Because when you look at intelligence, nuclear weapons, and so on, we depend on the US," she said at Sciences Po university.

"But I think we're able to do more than what is being said publicly right now."

As for a 2035 target to ramp up spending on NATO, she said: "I'm sorry to say it would be too late."

"I think rearming ourselves now is the most important thing."

NATO members committed to raising defence and security spending last year to five percent of their economic output, following on from an earlier target of two percent by 2024, after pressure from the US government.

On Tuesday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hosted Frederiksen in Berlin and assured her of Germany's solidarity.

Denmark PM says Europe can improve defences 'now'
Paris, France (AFP) Jan 28, 2026 - Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in Paris on Wednesday that Europe needed to improve its defences "now" to become less reliant on the United States for military protection.

Europe's alliance with the US through NATO has been shaken by President Donald Trump's threat to seize Greenland from Denmark, which he has since rowed back.

But NATO chief Mark Rutte told EU lawmakers on Monday to "keep on dreaming" if they thought Europe could defend itself without the US.

In response to Rutte's comments, Frederiksen conceded it would be "extremely difficult" for Europe to defend itself right now.

"Because when you look at intelligence, nuclear weapons, and so on, we depend on the US," she said at Sciences Po university.

"But I think we're able to do more than what is being said publicly right now."

As for a 2035 target to ramp up spending on NATO, she said: "I'm sorry to say it would be too late."

"I think rearming ourselves now is the most important thing."

NATO members committed to raising defence and security spending last year to 5 percent of their economic output, following on from an earlier target of 2 percent by 2024, after pressure from the US government.

Fredriksen said Europe had made a "big mistake" by cutting military budgets in the past.

Frederiksen, along with Greenland's premier, was due to meet French President Emmanuel Macron later on Wednesday.

]]> Sat, 07 FEB 2026 10:20:12 AEST Moscow (AFP) Jan 22, 2026 - While Russia and China strongly deny any plans to seize Greenland, as US President Donald Trump claims, both value the Arctic's strategic value and are seeking to boost their presence there.

The development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) by Russia and China since the 2010s, made possible by a warming climate, is real, as is the strengthening of Russian military capabilities in the Arctic.

Here are the main things to know about how Russian and Chinese presence in the region could develop.

- Northern Sea Route -

Russia considers the Arctic essential to the growth of its trade with Asia, including to counterbalance the effects of Western sanctions on its oil and gas, which were imposed after the Kremlin's 2022 assault on Ukraine.

Moscow wants to maximise shipping through the NSR, where ships can sail through more easily due to melting ice caused by climate change.

The route runs along Russia's Arctic coastline, which is far away from Greenland. Moscow hopes it will increase transport of Russian oil to South East Asia by connecting the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans.

To that end, Russia has built the world's only nuclear-powered icebreakers, vessels capable of clearing thick ice on the route to open the way for cargo ships.

Several months after launching the Ukraine campaign -- Russia's main focus in the last four years -- Moscow said it still intended to develop the route and has approved an investment plan of around EUR20 billion ($23.4 billion) until 2035.

But for now, trade via this route remains expensive and complicated.

Its volume is far from the hundreds of millions of tonnes of goods that pass through the Suez Canal each year.

In 2025, 37 million tonnes of goods were transported via the NSR, a 2.3 percent decrease year-on-year, according to official data quoted by the RIA Novosti news agency.

China launched its Polar Silk Road project in 2018, an Arctic version of its transnational infrastructure initiative.

Beijing aims to become a "polar power" by 2030 and has established scientific research stations in Iceland and Norway.

- Russia strengthening Arctic forces -

Militarily, the Arctic region is also a strategic priority for Moscow.

"Russia never threatened anyone in the Arctic," President Vladimir Putin said in March last year.

"But we are attentively watching the development of the situation, building an adequate response by strengthening the possibilities of our armed forces and modernising military infrastructure," he added.

In 2021, Moscow announced it had built a 3.5-kilometre (two-mile) runway capable of accommodating all types of aircraft -- including nuclear-armed bombers -- on the Franz Josef Land archipelago in Russia's far north.

In 2019, the Russian army also said it deployed the latest generation S-400 anti-aircraft systems in the Arctic and opened a new radar base on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago.

In September 2025, the Russian Northern Fleet, which is responsible for Russia's Arctic regions, conducted new military exercises involving troop landings and firing from ships and nuclear submarines.

In the Arctic, China's military presence, while modest, has also grown, mainly in collaboration with Russia since 2022.

In 2024, Russian and Chinese bomber planes conducted a joint patrol at the junction between the Asian and American continents, not far from the US state of Alaska.

China also operates a number of icebreakers that are equipped with mini submarines, which are capable of mapping the seabed and are potentially militarily useful.

Beijing also has Arctic observation satellites, which it insists have scientific aims.

]]> Sat, 07 FEB 2026 10:20:12 AEST Nuuk (AFP) Jan 22, 2026 - A day after US President Donald Trump and NATO's chief purportedly struck a deal on Greenland, residents expressed anger and frustration that the Danish territory was again being sidelined in talks about its future.

Carrying two steaming cappuccinos from a popular American coffee chain on Thursday, Niels Berthelsen took the time to stop despite the icy cold winds whipping the streets of Nuuk, the Greenlandic capital.

"If they want to make deals about Greenland, they have to invite Greenland to the negotiating table," the 49-year-old skipper told AFP.

"Nothing about Greenland without Greenland," he insisted repeatedly.

Trump backed down on threats to seize Greenland by force after meeting NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on Wednesday, saying they had reached a "framework" deal on the Danish autonomous territory.

While details of the agreement made at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss ski resort of Davos remained scant, many Greenlanders, who fiercely defend their right to self-determination, were disappointed.

"It's obviously a good thing that the military threat has gone down," Berthelsen said.

"But they could just as easily have reached an agreement by inviting Greenland to the table, rather than having Mark Rutte negotiate a deal with Trump by himself. I find that very disrespectful on Mark Rutte's part."

Fellow Nuuk resident Esther Jensen agreed.

"I'm very disappointed, because Rutte cannot make any kind of agreement with Trump without Denmark or Greenland, and Denmark cannot make any decision without Greenland either. So we are very disappointed," said Jensen.

Greenland's prime minister said he was not aware of the contents of the framework agreement, but stressed no deal could be made without involving the island.

"Nobody else than Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark have the mandate to make deals or agreements about Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark without us," Jens-Frederik Nielsen told a press conference.

"We have some red lines... We have to respect our territorial integrity. We have to respect international law, sovereignty."

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Rutte had coordinated with her and the Greenlandic government -- though Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said on social media that Rutte "cannot negotiate an agreement on behalf of Denmark or Greenland".

- Longing for quieter times -

A Danish colony for three centuries, Greenland, which today has around 57,000 inhabitants, gradually gained autonomy in the second half of the 20th century.

But Denmark's assimilation policies -- including de facto bans on the Inuit language and forced sterilisations -- have left Greenlanders bitter and angry.

"Our country will neither be given away, nor will our future be gambled with," Greenland's Deputy Prime Minister Mute Egede said in a post on Facebook.

"It is unacceptable to attempt to hand our land to others. This is our land -- we are the ones who shape its future."

In Nuuk, some residents wondered what really went down in Davos.

"We know all too well that Trump has a tendency to read too much into some things," said 80-year-old pensioner Arkalo Abelsen.

"When Rutte... says that they've spoken about some possible solutions, in Trump's mind, that becomes a deal," Abelsen said, leaning on a crutch.

"That's not a deal. There's no agreement."

The unwelcome surge of interest in Greenland, and the turbulence caused by recent events, has tested locals' tranquil temperament.

"Ever since Trump was re-elected president, we never know what's going to happen from one day to the next," said Abelsen.

"Especially when he goes after our country like it's a piece of ice drifting in the sea. It's very destabilising. We feel powerless.

"My wife and I speak about it every day. We say, 'If only we could go back to the days before Trump.' Back then, we knew what was going to happen."

Susan Gudmundsdottir Johnsen, a 52-year-old travel agency employee, also said she longed for quieter times.

"From now on, we need peace and quiet."

What are Russia and China doing in the Arctic?
Moscow (AFP) Jan 22, 2026 - While Russia and China strongly deny any plans to seize Greenland, as US President Donald Trump claims, both value the Arctic's strategic value and are seeking to boost their presence there.

The development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) by Russia and China since the 2010s, made possible by a warming climate, is real, as is the strengthening of Russian military capabilities in the Arctic.

Here are the main things to know about how Russian and Chinese presence in the region could develop.

- Northern Sea Route -

Russia considers the Arctic essential to the growth of its trade with Asia, including to counterbalance the effects of Western sanctions on its oil and gas, which were imposed after the Kremlin's 2022 assault on Ukraine.

Moscow wants to maximise shipping through the NSR, where ships can sail through more easily due to melting ice caused by climate change.

The route runs along Russia's Arctic coastline, which is far away from Greenland. Moscow hopes it will increase transport of Russian oil to South East Asia by connecting the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans.

To that end, Russia has built the world's only nuclear-powered icebreakers, vessels capable of clearing thick ice on the route to open the way for cargo ships.

Several months after launching the Ukraine campaign -- Russia's main focus in the last four years -- Moscow said it still intended to develop the route and has approved an investment plan of around EUR20 billion ($23.4 billion) until 2035.

But for now, trade via this route remains expensive and complicated.

Its volume is far from the hundreds of millions of tonnes of goods that pass through the Suez Canal each year.

In 2025, 37 million tonnes of goods were transported via the NSR, a 2.3 percent decrease year-on-year, according to official data quoted by the RIA Novosti news agency.

China launched its Polar Silk Road project in 2018, an Arctic version of its transnational infrastructure initiative.

Beijing aims to become a "polar power" by 2030 and has established scientific research stations in Iceland and Norway.

- Russia strengthening Arctic forces -

Militarily, the Arctic region is also a strategic priority for Moscow.

"Russia never threatened anyone in the Arctic," President Vladimir Putin said in March last year.

"But we are attentively watching the development of the situation, building an adequate response by strengthening the possibilities of our armed forces and modernising military infrastructure," he added.

In 2021, Moscow announced it had built a 3.5-kilometre (two-mile) runway capable of accommodating all types of aircraft -- including nuclear-armed bombers -- on the Franz Josef Land archipelago in Russia's far north.

In 2019, the Russian army also said it deployed the latest generation S-400 anti-aircraft systems in the Arctic and opened a new radar base on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago.

In September 2025, the Russian Northern Fleet, which is responsible for Russia's Arctic regions, conducted new military exercises involving troop landings and firing from ships and nuclear submarines.

In the Arctic, China's military presence, while modest, has also grown, mainly in collaboration with Russia since 2022.

In 2024, Russian and Chinese bomber planes conducted a joint patrol at the junction between the Asian and American continents, not far from the US state of Alaska.

China also operates a number of icebreakers that are equipped with mini submarines, which are capable of mapping the seabed and are potentially militarily useful.

Beijing also has Arctic observation satellites, which it insists have scientific aims.

]]> Sat, 07 FEB 2026 10:20:12 AEST Brussels, Belgium (AFP) Jan 22, 2026 - Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Thursday that NATO states backed having a "permanent presence" in the Arctic, including around Greenland, after US President Donald Trump claimed a framework deal was struck to satisfy his demands.

"We have asked NATO to be more present in the Arctic region," Frederiksen said at the start of a European Union summit in Brussels.

"Everybody in NATO agrees about that, the Arctic states, but also other member states, that we need a permanent presence from NATO in the Arctic region, including around Greenland."

Trump on Wednesday backed down from the threat of using force or tariffs to try to take over Greenland, after saying an agreement was reached in talks with NATO chief Mark Rutte.

Details remained scant of the accord -- but Trump did not make any progress towards his goal of trying to gain control over the autonomous Arctic territory of fellow NATO member Denmark.

Frederiksen said discussions about Denmark's sovereignty were off the table. "It cannot be changed," she said.

NATO said following the talks that the alliance would ramp up security in the Arctic, after Trump used the perceived threat from Russia and China to justify his desire for Greenland.

A source familiar with the discussions said Denmark and the United States would also look to renegotiate a 1951 defence pact on Greenland that governs American troop deployments on the island.

"We said to the Americans a year ago that we can discuss our agreement on defence, but it has to be in the framework of us as a sovereign state," Frederiksen said.

The Danish leader insisted the two sides "have to work together respectfully, without threatening each other".

"I, of course, hope to find a political solution within the framework of democracy and how we cooperate as allies," she said.

What are Russia and China doing in the Arctic?
Moscow (AFP) Jan 22, 2026 - While Russia and China strongly deny any plans to seize Greenland, as US President Donald Trump claims, both value the Arctic's strategic value and are seeking to boost their presence there.

The development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) by Russia and China since the 2010s, made possible by a warming climate, is real, as is the strengthening of Russian military capabilities in the Arctic.

Here are the main things to know about how Russian and Chinese presence in the region could develop.

- Northern Sea Route -

Russia considers the Arctic essential to the growth of its trade with Asia, including to counterbalance the effects of Western sanctions on its oil and gas, which were imposed after the Kremlin's 2022 assault on Ukraine.

Moscow wants to maximise shipping through the NSR, where ships can sail through more easily due to melting ice caused by climate change.

The route runs along Russia's Arctic coastline, which is far away from Greenland. Moscow hopes it will increase transport of Russian oil to South East Asia by connecting the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans.

To that end, Russia has built the world's only nuclear-powered icebreakers, vessels capable of clearing thick ice on the route to open the way for cargo ships.

Several months after launching the Ukraine campaign -- Russia's main focus in the last four years -- Moscow said it still intended to develop the route and has approved an investment plan of around EUR20 billion ($23.4 billion) until 2035.

But for now, trade via this route remains expensive and complicated.

Its volume is far from the hundreds of millions of tonnes of goods that pass through the Suez Canal each year.

In 2025, 37 million tonnes of goods were transported via the NSR, a 2.3 percent decrease year-on-year, according to official data quoted by the RIA Novosti news agency.

China launched its Polar Silk Road project in 2018, an Arctic version of its transnational infrastructure initiative.

Beijing aims to become a "polar power" by 2030 and has established scientific research stations in Iceland and Norway.

- Russia strengthening Arctic forces -

Militarily, the Arctic region is also a strategic priority for Moscow.

"Russia never threatened anyone in the Arctic," President Vladimir Putin said in March last year.

"But we are attentively watching the development of the situation, building an adequate response by strengthening the possibilities of our armed forces and modernising military infrastructure," he added.

In 2021, Moscow announced it had built a 3.5-kilometre (two-mile) runway capable of accommodating all types of aircraft -- including nuclear-armed bombers -- on the Franz Josef Land archipelago in Russia's far north.

In 2019, the Russian army also said it deployed the latest generation S-400 anti-aircraft systems in the Arctic and opened a new radar base on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago.

In September 2025, the Russian Northern Fleet, which is responsible for Russia's Arctic regions, conducted new military exercises involving troop landings and firing from ships and nuclear submarines.

In the Arctic, China's military presence, while modest, has also grown, mainly in collaboration with Russia since 2022.

In 2024, Russian and Chinese bomber planes conducted a joint patrol at the junction between the Asian and American continents, not far from the US state of Alaska.

China also operates a number of icebreakers that are equipped with mini submarines, which are capable of mapping the seabed and are potentially militarily useful.

Beijing also has Arctic observation satellites, which it insists have scientific aims.

]]> Sat, 07 FEB 2026 10:20:12 AEST Nuuk (AFP) Jan 21, 2026 - Greenlanders were sceptical on Wednesday following US President Donald Trump's announcement that he had settled the question of the Arctic island's future.

Following weeks of increasingly bellicose rhetoric surrounding his desire to seize the autonomous Danish territory, Trump said at Davos that he had reached a framework of a deal that satisfies him, without providing details.

Several Greenlanders interviewed by AFP in the capital Nuuk voiced doubt when they heard the news -- or refused to believe it.

"Quite simply a lie. He's lying," said 47-year-old technician Mickel Nielsen.

"I don't believe a word he says, and I don't think I'm the only one," he added.

Trump said he had reached an agreement during talks with NATO chief Mark Rutte, but offered few details and was conspicuously silent on whether the deal would mean US control over the Arctic island, which he has repeatedly demanded.

The head of the transatlantic military alliance for his part said the conversation had been "very productive", according to NATO spokesperson Allison Hart.

Allies would discuss the framework which addresses Trump's claims that the island is not protected from Russia or China, she said.

"Negotiations between Denmark, Greenland, and the United States will go forward aimed at ensuring that Russia and China never gain a foothold -- economically or militarily -- in Greenland," she said.

But the island's inhabitants remained unconvinced.

"Trump? I don't believe him," said care worker Anak, 64. "Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders."

Miki, using a fake name, said the US leader's declaration was "hard to believe".

"He can say something and two minutes later he says completely the opposite."

"NATO has absolutely no right to negotiate anything without us, Greenland. Nothing about us without us," reacted Greenlandic MP Aaja Chenmitz, one of the two elected representatives of Greenland in the Danish parliament. "And for NATO to have a say in our country and our minerals is completely insane," she added.

According to a January 2025 poll, 85 percent of Greenlanders oppose joining the United States, with only six percent in favour.

]]> Sat, 07 FEB 2026 10:20:12 AEST Davos, Switzerland (AFP) Jan 21, 2026 - US President Donald Trump said Wednesday he had reached a framework for a deal over Greenland, which he had threatened to conquer from Denmark, and scrapped his threat of tariffs on European allies.

Trump, speaking after he met NATO chief Mark Rutte at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, said little about the purported framework or whether it met his demands of total US control over the Arctic island.

"We have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

"Based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the Tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on February 1st," Trump wrote.

The tariffs were set to hit Denmark as well as close US allies including Britain, France and Germany which had sent troops to Greenland in the wake of Trump's threats.

Speaking later to reporters in the hallways of the conference in the Swiss resort of Davos, Trump said that the deal would be in effect "forever."

Asked if the United States would gain sovereignty over the vast but sparsely populated island, Trump hesitated and said, "It's the ultimate long-term deal, and I think it puts everybody in a really good position, especially as it pertains to security, and minerals and everything else."

"It's a deal that people jumped at, really fantastic for the USA, gets everything we wanted," he told reporters.

Speaking separately to CNBC, Trump called it a "concept of a deal."

"It's a little bit complex, but we'll explain it down the line, but the secretary general of NATO and I and some other people were talking and it's the kind of a deal that I wanted to be able to make."

Trump's quest to take Greenland from NATO ally Denmark has deeply shaken the global order and markets.

In a speech earlier Wednesday at the World Economic Forum, Trump for the first time ruled out using force, but demanded "immediate negotiations" to acquire the island from Denmark.

"We probably won't get anything unless I decide to use excessive strength and force where we would be, frankly, unstoppable -- but I won't do that," Trump said in his speech.

"I don't have to use force. I don't want to use force. I won't use force. All the United States is asking for is a place called Greenland."

In Davos speech, Trump repeatedly refers to Greenland as 'Iceland'
Davos, Switzerland (AFP) Jan 21, 2026 - US President Donald Trump repeatedly made an apparent gaffe in a speech Wednesday to world leaders assembled in Switzerland by referring to "Iceland" several times instead of his much coveted "Greenland," with the White House furiously denying any confusion on his part.

The 79-year-old Republican has been clamoring for the United States to acquire Greenland, a large island territory of Denmark, citing what he called security threats from Russia and China in the Arctic Circle.

On Wednesday he announced a "framework" for a future deal on Greenland and the cancellation of planned tariffs on European countries that had opposed his moves to control the island -- but not before ruffling NATO allies and straining transatlantic relations.

"I'm helping NATO, and until the last few days, when I told them about Iceland, they loved me," Trump said during his remarks to the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos.

"They're not there for us on Iceland -- that I can tell you. I mean, our stock market took the first dip yesterday because of Iceland. So Iceland's already cost us a lot of money."

It seemed obvious he was referring to Greenland and not the smaller neighbouring Iceland, an island in the North Atlantic famous for its breathtaking volcanic landscapes.

After the speech, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt pushed back against a post on X by a journalist, Libbey Dean, who wrote that "President Trump appeared to mix up Greenland and Iceland around three times."

"No he didn't, Libby. His written remarks referred to Greenland as a 'piece of ice' because that's what it is. You're the only one mixing anything up here," Leavitt fired back on X, misspelling the journalist's name.

During his speech at Davos, Trump, as he often does, frequently strayed from the written script scrolling on the teleprompters.

Asked about the events in Davos, Gavin Newsom, California's Democratic governor and a leading opposition figure in the United States who is considered a potential presidential candidate in 2028, seized on the moment.

"None of this is normal," Newsom said. "There's a normalisation, a deviancy of consciousness."

- Sensitive subject -

The issue of mental acuity is a sensitive one for Trump.

During the 2024 presidential campaign, he attacked incumbent Joe Biden, claiming the Democrat suffered from dementia.

In recent days, some Democratic lawmakers have called for invoking the US Constitution's 25th Amendment, which allows for removing a president who no longer has the physical or intellectual capacity to carry out the duties of office.

The politicians justified their calls by citing a message that Trump had sent to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store.

In the message, made public on Monday, Trump expressed his displeasure with not being awarded last year's Nobel Peace Prize.

Trump also reiterated his desire for the US to take control of Greenland.

"Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace," Trump wrote.

However, an independent committee -- not the Norwegian government -- is the body that awards the peace prize and other Nobel prizes at an annual ceremony in Oslo.

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