The urgency of these studies is underlined by the record storm surge experienced in October 2023, which brought significant damage to the German Baltic coast. Dr. Joshua Kiesel, a postdoctoral researcher in the Coastal Risks and Sea Level Rise working group at Kiel University's Institute of Geography, and Professor Athanasios Vafeidis, a member of the research priority area Kiel Marine Science (KMS) at the University, spearheaded these investigations.
Their research, leveraging high-resolution data and process-based modeling, indicates that neither the elevation of existing dikes nor managed realignment strategies alone can sufficiently mitigate the risk of flooding by the year 2100. Managed realignment, a nature-based solution involving controlled breaching of seaward defenses and relocating primary defense lines inland, showed a maximum risk reduction of only 26%. These findings were outlined in Communications Earth and Environment and Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences journals.
Dr. Kiesel's analysis revealed that the majority of potential flood zones lie in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, impacting key areas such as Fischland-Darss-Zingst, Rugen, Usedom, and the Peene estuary. Schleswig-Holstein regions, including Flensburg Fjord, Eckernforde Bay, Fehmarn, Travemunde, and Lubeck, are also significantly vulnerable.
The studies utilize process-based modeling, which differs from traditional models by factoring in the dynamic nature of storm surges and the varying terrain they encounter. This methodology allowed the researchers to assess the effectiveness of different coastal defense strategies with unprecedented precision. The model incorporated a resolution of one meter for terrain data, a significant enhancement over previous models.
Managed realignment, which promotes the reestablishment of natural coastal buffers like wetlands, offers a dual advantage of enhancing coastal defense and supporting biodiversity. The team at Kiel University, however, discovered that even when combined with dike elevation, this strategy might not fully counteract the challenges posed by ongoing sea level rise.
In their quest to identify feasible areas for managed realignment, the research team considered parameters like undeveloped lands behind dikes and the absence of critical infrastructure. Their approach did not factor in socio-economic considerations or public acceptance, focusing purely on the physical and environmental feasibility of such interventions.
The necessity for more research into effective, nature-based adaptation options has been starkly highlighted by these studies, especially in the wake of the Baltic Sea storm surge. The increasing likelihood of successive storm surges poses an imminent threat, particularly to infrastructure already weakened by previous events.
This research is part of the broader "Ecosystem-supporting Coastal Adaptation Strategies for the German Baltic Sea Coast" (ECAS-Baltic) project, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The project, coordinated by the Global Climate Forum (GCF) in Berlin, saw collaboration from various institutions, including Leibniz University Hannover, the Helmholtz Centre Hereon, the Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemunde, and the universities of Rostock and Greifswald.
The findings from Kiel University's rigorous research underscore the complexities and limitations of current and proposed coastal defense mechanisms against the backdrop of climate change. As Europe and other regions grapple with similar challenges, these insights offer valuable guidance for future strategies in coastal protection and adaptation.
Research Report:Raising dikes and managed realignment may be insufficient for maintaining current flood risk along the German Baltic Sea coast
Research Report:Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast,
Related Links
Ecosystem-Supporting Coastal Adaptation Strategies For The German Baltic Sea Coast
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