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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Climate change: What now for the Paris accord?
by Staff Writers
Lima (AFP) Dec 14, 2014


Observers slam 'lackluster' Lima climate deal
Lima (AFP) Dec 14, 2014 - A carbon-curbing deal struck in Lima on Sunday was a watered-down compromise where national intransigence threatened the goal of a pact to save Earth's climate system, green groups said.

The hard-fought agreement sets out guidelines for the submission of national greenhouse-gas pledges next year.

But, the groups said, initially ambitious standards became weaker the longer the talks wound on.

In a tug-of-war between rich and developing nation interests, the end result was a "lackluster plan with little scientific relevancy," said WWF's climate expert, Samantha Smith.

"Against the backdrop of extreme weather in the Philippines and potentially the hottest year ever recorded, governments at the UN climate talks in Lima opted for a half-baked plan to cut emissions," she added.

NGOs and developing nations alike had hoped the agreement would compel rich countries to include information in their pledges on climate adaptation and other financial help.

They had also sought a robust assessment of the pledges' aggregate effect and a mechanism for ramping up contributions, if they were judged inadequate to meet the UN goal of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels.

But expectations were mostly disappointed.

The talks, which spilled more than 30 hours into overtime, got bogged down early on in a fight over "differentiation" -- how to divide responsibility for carbon cuts between rich and poor nations.

The outcome, said the US-based Union of Concerned Scientists, reflected "the bare minimum" to keep negotiations on the road to inking a climate-saving pact in Paris next December that will have the pledges at its heart.

Rather than imposing a requirement, the text merely "urges" parties to "consider including an adaptation component" in their pledges, and on finance similarly "urges" developed countries to provide support.

In a nod to poor country concerns, the new text did reintroduce a reference to "common but differentiated responsibilities" that had been dropped from earlier drafts.

- Political expediency 'won' -

"The package... puts in place a draft of a Paris agreement without narrowing down any of the difficult political issues that have plagued global efforts to address climate change for more than 20 years," said Oxfam.

"The deal does not require that the initial pledges parties make in 2015 reflect their fair share, does not guarantee that these offers will use common or comprehensive information, or have any mechanism to review whether they will prevent catastrophic warming or not."

To give the process a boost, rich nations will have to bring detailed plans for how they intend to meet a promise to ramp up their climate funding to $100 billion per year by 2020, said the observers.

"The limited progress that was achieved in Peru, in particular on the provision of financial support to poor countries to adapt to climate change or repair the damages from extreme weather events, is a big letdown," said Wendel Trio of Climate Action Network (CAN).

These critics also feared guidelines were too vague for cutting fossil-fuel emissions leading up to 2020, when the Paris pact will enter into force.

"The science is clear that delaying action until 2020 will make it near impossible to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, yet political expediency won over scientific urgency," said WWF's Smith.

Four years ago, the world's nations vowed to forge a pact by the end of 2015 that would tame climate change and bequeath a safer planet to future generations.

Operational from 2020, the accord would curb heat-trapping carbon emissions and hold global warming under two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).

And it would crank out hundreds of billions of dollars (euros) in help for climate-vulnerable, poor countries.

But an exhausting negotiation round in Lima, designed to ease the way to the deal to be inked in Paris in 12 months' time, served as a reminder of what happens when soaring visions encounter gritty reality.

In less than two weeks, the annual talks of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Convention (UNFCCC) retreated from high-minded rhetoric to familiar nit-picking and finger-pointing.

Thirty-two hours beyond their scheduled close, the negotiations were saved thanks to a compromise that gutted the text of its most ambitious measures for emissions curbs and aid.

The row casts a shadow over the three rounds of talks scheduled ahead of the November 30-December 11 finale in Paris, say observers.

"There are deep and long-standing divisions on major issues including climate finance, which countries are more obligated to take action to reduce emissions, and whether to give greater priority to adaptation" aid, said Alden Meyer with the US-based Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).

"These divisions nearly derailed the process in Lima; if they aren't addressed, they threaten to block an agreement in Paris."

The biggest source of conflict in Lima was about fairness among the UNFCCC's 196 parties.

Enshrined in the UNFCCC's charter at its founding 22 years ago, is a principle known as "common but differentiated responsibility," or CBDR.

CBDR is interpreted by developing countries as meaning that industrialized countries should bear more of the burden for curbing fossil fuel emissions.

After all, goes this argument, they were the first to benefit from fossil fuels to power their rise to prosperity.

Asking poor countries which did not have this historic advantage to shoulder the burden equally would be unfair, they argue.

Rich countries, for their part, demand stronger efforts from everyone to reduce greenhouse gases.

Further complicating matters, developing countries demanded that financial aid and technical help, and not just carbon cuts, feature in national pledges designed to be at the core of the 2015 pact.

This was why, after the rhetoric in Lima had faded and the talks got serious, things got difficult.

"The mistrust from Peru will be a poison in these negotiations," said Asad Rehman of Friends of the Earth.

"Rich developed countries have to be dragged kicking and screaming to budge an inch. When you send a signal you are not serious about reducing emissions by delaying targets and fudging on finance, then no-one else will be serious either."

Elliot Diringer of a US thinktank, the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, said Lima showed up fears among some developing countries that CBDR is losing its sacred status.

One reason for this was last month's carbon-cutting agreement between China and the United States, the world's two biggest emitters, he suggested.

It pointed to an impending shift in the rich-world, poor-world perspective on climate.

"It's no surprise that in Lima a lot of developing countries pushed back. Striking a new balance between developed and developing nations will clearly be one of the toughest pieces next year in Paris."

- Spider's web -

Adding to next year's problems is the DNA of decision-making under the nation-state system, which is poorly designed to cope with a global environmental crisis.

As decisions in the UNFCC have to be made by consensus, a single country -- a carbon polluter, a climate victim or fossil-fuel exporter -- can easily scupper, delay or dilute a deal to defend its own interests.

Thus, over more than two decades, the UNFCCC's agenda has become a sprawling spider's web of emissions cuts, adaptation funds, transparency, technological transfer, compliance, and so on.

No single issue can be addressed separately. Touch one strand of the web and others vibrate, for all are connected.

Even if its many problems disappoint the high expectations for Paris, the UN process will survive, said analysts.

"Lima shows that a multilateral agreement of nation states remains important," said Jennifer Morgan of the World Resources Institute (WRI), a policy group.

"However, we know that all efforts are needed on all levels to address this issue," she said, pointing to growing interest in bilateral, regional or industry-wide agreements on climate change.

"It is not 'either-or'."


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