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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Greenhouse gases rise to record high in 2010: UN
by Staff Writers
Geneva (AFP) Nov 21, 2011

UN climate talks: Factfile on Kyoto Protocol
Paris (AFP) Nov 21, 2011 - Following is a factfile on the Kyoto Protocol, whose future will take centre stage at the UN climate talks in Durban, South Africa, from November 28-December 9:

WHAT IS IT?

The Kyoto Protocol is the main achievement of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the forum set up under the 1992 Rio Summit.

It is the only international treaty to set down legally-binding targets for curbing climate-altering "greenhouse" gases.

It has been ratified by 192 states plus the European Union (EU).

Under its present commitments, 37 industrialised, or "Annex 1," economies pledged to reduce overall emissions of the six main gases by at least five percent by 2012 compared to 1990.

The United States signed the agreement but refuses to ratify it.

Developing economies -- "Annex 2" countries -- were not assigned targeted emissions curbs under the principle that rich countries bore historical responsibility for warming.

HOW DOES IT WORK?

Annex 1 countries can meet their targets any way they choose, including carbon trading.

The Protocol also has two special instruments of its own, known as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation.

By investing in clean-technology projects in developing economies or the former Soviet bloc, advanced economies get carbon credits that can be sold or offset against their emissions quotas.

Countries which fail to meet their emissions targets must make up the difference, plus a penalty of 30 percent, in any second commitment period.

In 2009, emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) by Annex 1 countries were 6.5 percent below their 1990 level, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). But this figure masks big differences within the group, with Canada notably far over its target.

TROUBLED HISTORY

The Protocol was adopted by the UNFCC as a 21-page "framework" accord on December 11, 1997 after 30 months of negotiations.

Several years of wrangling ensued over its complex rulebook, especially the counting of forests as carbon absorbers, or "sinks", that can be set against national emissions -- a provision regarded as a loophole by environmentalists.

In March 2001, the Protocol was almost wrecked when then-president George W. Bush abandoned the pact as being unfair and too costly for the US economy. It survived thanks to championing by the EU.

Further foot-dragging on ratification by Russia delayed implementation, which eventually took effect on February 16 2005.

UNCERTAIN FUTURE

The big question in Durban is whether there will be endorsement of a second commitment period from 2013.

Developing countries are lobbying hard for this. They like Kyoto because of its tough verification and compliance clauses and the "differentiated" burden-sharing between Annex 1 and Annex 2.

But in rich countries, support for Kyoto has drained since the stormy December 2009 Copenhagen Summit, which set up voluntary pledges aimed at limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit).

Critics say the Kyoto format is out of date, as China and United States, which together account for 41 percent of global CO2 emissions, do not have binding curbs, nor do Brazil, India and Indonesia, which are also fast-growing emitters.

In 2009, developing countries accounted for 54 percent of CO2 emissions and the United States 18 percent. Kyoto's Annex 1 countries accounted for just 25 percent.

The EU says it can envisage a second set of commitments, depending on pledges from the major polluters in the wider UNFCCC forum. The prospects for this are slim, though.


The amount of global warming-causing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rose to a new high in 2010, and the rate of increase has accelerated, the UN weather agency said on Monday.

Levels of carbon dioxide -- a greenhouse gas and major contributor to climate change -- rose by 2.3 parts per million between 2009 and 2010, higher than the average for the past decade of 2.0 parts per million, a new report by the World Meteorological Organisation found.

"The atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases due to human activities has yet again reached record levels since pre-industrial time," said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud.

Greenhouse gases trap radiation within the earths atmosphere, causing it to warm.

Scientists attributed the rise in carbon dioxide, which contributes about 64 percent to climate warming, to fossil fuel burning, deforestation and changes in land-use.

Methane, produced by cattle-rearing and landfills, is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide followed by nitrous oxide.

The WMO's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin said methane levels had risen after a period of relative stabilisation from 1999 to 2006, possibly due to the thawing of the Northern permafrost and increased emissions from tropical wetlands.

Nitrous oxide, emitted into the atmosphere from natural and man-made sources, including biomass burning and fertilizer use, was 323.2 parts per billion in 2010 -- 20 percent higher than in the pre-industrial era, defined as the period before 1750.

"Its impact on climate, over a 100 year period, is 298 times greater than equal emissions of carbon dioxide," said the report.

"It also plays an important role in the destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer which protects us from the harmful ultraviolet rays of the sun."

"Even if we managed to halt our greenhouse gas emissions today -- and this is far from the case -- they would continue to linger in the atmosphere for decades to come and so continue to affect the delicate balance of our living planet and our climate," said Jarraud.

"Now more than ever before, we need to understand the complex, and sometimes unexpected, interactions between greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, Earths biosphere and oceans."

The seventh Greenhouse Gas Bulletin comes ahead of a new round of UN climate talks in South Africa next Monday, testing global resolve to tackle what scientists warn is a time bomb with an ever-shorter fuse.

Analysts say the UN process is still traumatised by the near-collapse of the 2009 Copenhagen Summit and, in Durban, faces a bustup over the Kyoto Protocol, the only agreement setting legal curbs on greenhouse gases.

Key issues at Durban UN climate talks
Paris (AFP) Nov 21, 2011 - Following are the main issues at the UN climate talks in Durban, South Africa, from November 28 to December 9:

KYOTO PROTOCOL

The only international treaty to set down legally-binding curbs on carbon emissions is hanging by a thread.

More and more advanced economies say they will not renew their pledges after the first round of commitments expires at the end of 2012 because the world's biggest polluters remain outside these constraints.

That leaves the European Union (EU) in Durban as the only bloc willing to renew its vows -- provided the top two emitters, China and the United States, endorse a "roadmap" to a comprehensive climate pact by 2015.

Without a second commitment period, Kyoto would still exist as a treaty but it would be operationally gutted. Its collapse would send a devastating signal about the climate process ahead of the 20th anniversary of the Rio Summit where the forum was born.

But some experts say the treaty's labyrinthine rulebook and 1990s-era distinctions between between rich and poor countries should be ditched. Kyoto could be cannibalised and its useful parts incorporated into a new approach, they argue.

CLIMATE FINANCE

At the 2009 Copenhagen Summit, developed nations committed to creating a Green Climate Fund that will disburse, by 2020, at least 100 billion dollars per year to help poorer nations fight and cope with climate change.

The Durban meeting will seek to resolve problems on the Fund's design.

Developing nations want more money for adapting to climate change rather than keeping emissions down, and favour the creation of a UN-controlled fund to distribute the money.

Rich nations, though, prioritise emissions mitigation, and prefer using existing channels such as the World Bank.

Another issue is whether to endow the Fund with a specific source of revenue, such as a tax on aviation and shipping fuels, a global financial transaction fee and auctioning of carbon emissions allowances.

Most of 30 billion dollars in Copenhagen's "fast-start financing" for 2010-2012 has been pledged and a good portion of it disbursed.

Still unclear is how climate financing will build up to the 100 billion-per-year-target, starting in 2013. The 2008 global financial crisis and the looming threat of further recession is making this task hard.

FORESTS

Forests are "sinks" that soak up nearly a third of carbon emissions each year. Loss of forests is also a powerful addition to the greenhouse-gas problem.

The UN-backed scheme known as REDD+ -- Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation 'Plus' -- allots credit to tropical countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa that slow rates of forest destruction.

It also provides a mechanism for rich countries to offset their own carbon-reduction commitments by investing in that process.

Environmental groups say a portion of the Green Climate Fund should be earmarked for REDD+, which will require 15 to 40 billion dollars to implement, according to different estimates.

They also call on the UN body to set a 2020 target for reversing the net loss of forest cover. Neither goal will be easily achieved.

EMISSIONS COMPLIANCE

A question since the Copenhagen Summit is how to make voluntary national cuts in greenhouse gas emissions measurable, reportable and verifiable -- "MRV", in UN climate lingo.

Progress has been stymied by a reluctance by developing countries to be subject to the same scrutiny as developed ones under the UNFCCC's two-tier system of accountability.

Rich countries say that emerging giants will account for the lion's share of emissions in the future, which means the "MRVs" have to be credible. The United States, in particular, is insisting on common standards in oversight.

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Climate change: Factfile on the scientific evidence
Paris (AFP) Nov 21, 2011 - Following is a snapshot of scientific evidence for global warming and its impacts ahead of the November 28-December 9 UN climate talks in Durban, South Africa.

Except where stated, the source is the Fourth Assessment Report published by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007.

-- Evidence of global warming is "unequivocal," with a more than 90-percent probability that humans are largely responsible. The main culprit is greenhouse gas from fossil fuels, which traps solar heat in the atmosphere, warming Earth's surface.

-- Levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) have risen by around a third since pre-industrial times and are now at their highest in 650,000 years. 2010 saw the largest single-year jump in CO2 emissions, from 8.6 to 9.1 billion tonnes, according to the US Department of Energy.

-- Since 1900, sea level has risen by 10-20 centimetres (four to eight inches). Global average surface temperature has risen by 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.44 degrees Fahrenheit). Average temperatures above land have risen far faster, by 0.91 C (1.64 F) since the mid-20th century, according to the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project.

-- Climate change is already visible in sea-level rise, loss of alpine glaciers and snow cover, shrinking Arctic summer sea ice, thawing permafrost and poleward migration of many animals and plants towards cooler habitats.

-- By 2100, "best estimates" for the rise in global average surface temperatures run from 2.4-4.0 C (4.3-7.8 F) depending on fossil-fuel use. These figures also mask big variations, according to region and country.

-- In 2007, the IPCC projected sea levels will rise by at least 18 cms (7.2 inches) by 2100. Since then, many studies point to the risk of meltoff from the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. Most experts now say a one-metre (39-inch) increase is plausible.

-- 20-30 percent of plant and animal species are threatened with extinction if average global temperatures increase by 1.5-2.5 C (2.7-4.5 F) compared to the average temperature during the two last decades of the 20th century.

-- In Africa, by 2020, up to 75 to 250 million people will be exposed to increased water stress. Yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African countries could be reduced by up to 50 percent. Desert-like areas could expand by five to eight percent by 2080.

-- In Asia, available fresh water will decrease by mid-century. Coastal mega-deltas will be at risk from flooding due to rising seas. Mortality due to diseases associated with floods and droughts will increase.

-- Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts and rainstorms are likely to become more frequent and/or intensive, according to an IPCCC special report published on November 18.

-- To stabilise emissions at 445-535 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 equivalent would limit the overall rise in global warming since pre-industrial times to 2.0-2.8 C (3.6-5.0 F). Concentrations are currently about 390 ppm. A level of 450 ppm corresponds roughly to the target of 2.0 C (3.6 F) embraced by nations at the UN climate talks in Cancun in 2010.

-- Countries have to close a "gigatonne gap" of excess carbon emissions to meet the 2.0 C (3.6 F) target. A 2010 UNEP report set this at five to nine gigatonnes, a figure likely to be higher today. In October, researchers at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zurich calculated emissions will have to fall by 8.5 percent by 2020 compared to 2010 and then continue to decline.



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