Forecasts for the 2023 March-May rainy season point "towards depressed rainfall and high temperatures," the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) said.
The crucial March to May season typically contributes up to 60 percent of the annual total rainfall in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
The outlook confirms the fears of meteorologists and aid agencies who have warned of an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe as the longest and most severe drought sweeps the region.
"In parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Uganda that have been most affected by the recent drought, this could be the 6th failed consecutive rainfall season," ICPAC said in a statement.
The Nairobi-based ICPAC is the designated regional climate centre by the World Meteorological Organization.
The Horn of Africa is one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change, and extreme weather events are occurring with increased frequency and intensity.
Five straight failed rainy seasons have killed millions of livestock, destroyed crops, and forced more than one million people from their homes in search of food and water.
ICPAC said the looming conditions are worse than during the 2011 drought, with 23 million people in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia already "highly food insecure," according to the East African bloc IGAD and UN's FAO.
That year famine was declared in Somalia, and some 260,000 people -- half of them children under the age of six -- died of hunger, partly because the international community did not act fast enough, according to the UN.
At that time, the region had encountered two poor rainy seasons.
UN chief Antonio Guterres on Wednesday said 1.3 million, 80 percent of them women and children, have been internally displaced in Somalia by the ongoing biting drought.
While famine thresholds have not been reached, Guterres said, 8.3 million people -- more than half Somalia's population -- will need humanitarian assistance this year.
Workneh Gebeyehu, executive secretary of IGAD, called for the urgent scaling up of risk reduction measures in the Horn of Africa, warning that the situation will likely intensify.
"National governments, humanitarian and development actors must adopt a no-regret approach before it's too late."
UN says 2022 deadliest in Somalia since 2017
United Nations, United States (AFP) Feb 22, 2023 -
UN chief Antonio Guterres said Wednesday that 2022 was the deadliest year for civilians in Somalia since 2017, largely because of an increase in mass-casualty attacks by the Al-Shabaab jihadist group.
The troubled Horn of Africa nation -- also confronting a calamitous drought -- has witnessed a surge in attacks as government forces and allied militias wage an "all-out" war against the Al-Qaeda-linked militants.
"The continued attacks by Al-Shabaab, which have resulted in human rights violations, conflict-related sexual violence and a sharp increase in civilian casualties, are alarming," Guterres said in a report to the UN Security Council.
During the period under review from late August 2022 to early February, he said the UN mission in Somalia had recorded a 153-percent jump in civilian casualties to 1,059, including 382 deaths, most of them blamed on Al-Shabaab.
"The increase in casualties makes 2022 the deadliest year for civilians in Somalia since 2017," Guterres said.
In recent months, the Somali army and local clan militias have retaken chunks of territory from Al-Shabaab in an operation backed by US air strikes and an African Union force.
But the group, which has been waging a deadly insurgency against the fragile central government for about 15 years, still controls parts of the countryside and continues to carry out numerous retaliatory strikes.
In the deadliest attack since the government offensive was launched last year, 121 people were killed in two car bomb blasts at the education ministry in Mogadishu in October.
But Guterres also urged the Somali authorities to ensure that its "counter-terrorism" measures do not infringe on freedom of expression and said he was "deeply concerned" about arbitrary arrests of journalists and media workers.
He said ongoing conflict and insecurity had driven more than 600,000 people from their homes last year and "continue to be major impediments to humanitarian operations".
Another 1.3 million, 80 percent of them women and children, have been internally displaced in Somalia by the drought sweeping the Horn of Africa.
While famine thresholds have not been reached, Guterres said, 8.3 million people -- more than half Somalia's population -- will need humanitarian assistance this year.
After five consecutive poor rainy seasons, the ongoing drought has already become the longest and most severe in Somalia's recent history.
Guterres said the cumulative levels of excess mortality could be as high as the last famine in Somalia in 2011 when 260,000 people -- half of them children under the age of six -- died of hunger.
Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation
| Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters |
| Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters |
