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POLITICAL ECONOMY
IMF keeps China growth forecast at 7.4%, warns of 'near-term risks'
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Oct 07, 2014


Bank of Japan strikes less-optimistic tone on economy
Tokyo (AFP) Oct 07, 2014 - The Bank of Japan on Tuesday struck a less optimistic tone on its view of the world's number three economy, although it held off fresh monetary easing measures after its latest policy meeting.

Policymakers flagged housing and industrial production as weak spots, while it said business sentiment had "paused" owing to an April sales tax hike that led to a sharp contraction in second-quarter gross domestic product.

"Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately as a trend," the BoJ statement said, but it noted "some weakness, particularly on the production side" as demand dived after the rate hike.

Consumer spending has yet to recover fully, but the BoJ said it was still on track to hit a 2.0 percent inflation target, seen as key to reversing years of falling prices and tepid growth.

"Policymakers are slowly but surely acknowledging the recent sluggishness of the economy," said Marcel Thieliant from Capital Economics.

"The bank's more cautious stance will certainly trigger speculation that additional easing may already be announced at the upcoming meeting at the end of this month."

He said he did not see inflation to pick up towards the end of the year, as the bank expects, but instead decline further.

"With the economic recovery likely to remain subdued, policymakers may therefore have to acknowledge soon that the inflation target remains out of sight," he added.

The dollar fell to 108.61 yen after the announcement, from above the 109 level, while the euro fell to 137.14 yen from 137.64 yen earlier in the day.

- 'Positive outlook' -

Despite the slump, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has kept up his rosy view of Japan's prospects, saying Tuesday that factory output would turn around along with corporate and household spending.

"Industrial production data has been showing some weakness...but we've been told that the outlook is positive," he told reporters at a post-meeting news briefing.

Kuroda's upbeat take on the economy has appeared increasingly at odds with the official data, as it suffered in the April-June quarter its deepest contraction since the 2011 quake-tsunami disaster.

Japan's top central banker has given little indication he will soon increase the BoJ's asset-purchasing stimulus -- similar to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing -- saying the impact of the sales tax hike has not been as bad as expected.

Kuroda also said Tuesday that he was still confident in reaching the inflation target by next year, but added that the bank can adjust its policy if necessary to address "both upside and downside risks" to the economy.

Tokyo's tax hike was seen as crucial to addressing a mammoth public debt but economists had warned it could derail a budding recovery in an economy beset by years of deflation.

The 1.8 percent dip in gross domestic product -- or a 7.1 percent contraction at an annualised rate -- gave the clearest picture yet of the tax increase's impact, and threw into question Tokyo's plans for another such move next year.

Millions of shoppers made a last-minute dash to stores before prices went up on April 1, which was followed by a slump in spending.

Despite its generally positive take on the economy, the BoJ has lowered its growth forecast for the current fiscal year to March to 1.0 percent, well down from a 1.5 percent prediction in late 2013.

The International Monetary Fund left its forecast for China's economic growth this year unchanged at 7.4 percent Tuesday but warned the world's second-largest economy faces a range of "near-term growth risks", especially in real estate.

GDP growth will slow further to 7.1 percent next year, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report, citing a probable tightening of credit and ongoing weakness in the property market.

The figures came after the World Bank cut its own forecasts on Monday to 7.4 percent for 2014 and 7.2 percent in 2015.

But the IMF's predictions were unchanged from estimates it gave in July, when it downgraded its projections for China's expansion from 7.5 percent and 7.3 percent respectively.

China is a key driver of the global economy and in recent decades it enjoyed many years of double-digit growth, the boom propelling it up world financial tables.

But now the government and analysts say China's economy needs to be rebalanced away from an emphasis on exports and over-reliance on huge and often wasteful state-backed investment projects, towards internal demand.

The transformation is expected to result in slower but more stable and sustainable growth in the long run.

- Weakening despite stimulus measures -

Recent indicators have suggested that growth in China -- which stood at 7.7 percent last year, maintaining its slowest expansion in more than a decade -- is weakening even after authorities took limited stimulatory measures.

China's industrial production growth slowed sharply in August to its lowest level for more than five years, official data said last month, while house prices have fallen for five consecutive months.

Officials are targeting GDP expansion of "about 7.5 percent" this year, the same as last year's objective.

The goal is normally exceeded, but senior officials have repeatedly sought to play down its significance this year.

Overall growth will be "in line with the authorities' target" this year, the IMF said, thanks in part to government spending on infrastructure, but added that "risk stems from a sharp decline in house prices and housing activity".

"Real estate investment has been an important engine of growth in China, and it will be challenging to allow imbalances in the market...to correct while preventing an excessively sharp slowdown," it said.

"In China's case, the government still has the capacity to absorb and and respond to the types of shocks which triggered crises elsewhere."

Propping up growth through infrastructure spending would "complicate the challenge of rebalancing," the leader said, adding that "slightly lower growth in the future is seen to be a healthy development".

It urged China to reform its financial sector by making its exchange rate more flexible, liberalising bank deposit rates, and boosting spending on the "social safety net" to reduce household saving rates.

"Without a change in the pattern of growth that relies on credit and investment, vulnerabilities will continue to rise," it said.

Failing to do so would threaten Asian expansion, it added.

"Asia's potential growth, which has declined in the last few years, could weaken further, particularly if reform implementation is delayed."

But for the current year, it said, world export growth "is expected to remain strong given the projected rebound in advanced economies and China".

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