|
|
| . | ![]() |
. |
|
|
by Staff Writers Beijing (AFP) Oct 07, 2014
The International Monetary Fund left its forecast for China's economic growth this year unchanged at 7.4 percent Tuesday but warned the world's second-largest economy faces a range of "near-term growth risks", especially in real estate. GDP growth will slow further to 7.1 percent next year, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report, citing a probable tightening of credit and ongoing weakness in the property market. The figures came after the World Bank cut its own forecasts on Monday to 7.4 percent for 2014 and 7.2 percent in 2015. But the IMF's predictions were unchanged from estimates it gave in July, when it downgraded its projections for China's expansion from 7.5 percent and 7.3 percent respectively. China is a key driver of the global economy and in recent decades it enjoyed many years of double-digit growth, the boom propelling it up world financial tables. But now the government and analysts say China's economy needs to be rebalanced away from an emphasis on exports and over-reliance on huge and often wasteful state-backed investment projects, towards internal demand. The transformation is expected to result in slower but more stable and sustainable growth in the long run. - Weakening despite stimulus measures - Recent indicators have suggested that growth in China -- which stood at 7.7 percent last year, maintaining its slowest expansion in more than a decade -- is weakening even after authorities took limited stimulatory measures. China's industrial production growth slowed sharply in August to its lowest level for more than five years, official data said last month, while house prices have fallen for five consecutive months. Officials are targeting GDP expansion of "about 7.5 percent" this year, the same as last year's objective. The goal is normally exceeded, but senior officials have repeatedly sought to play down its significance this year. Overall growth will be "in line with the authorities' target" this year, the IMF said, thanks in part to government spending on infrastructure, but added that "risk stems from a sharp decline in house prices and housing activity". "Real estate investment has been an important engine of growth in China, and it will be challenging to allow imbalances in the market...to correct while preventing an excessively sharp slowdown," it said. "In China's case, the government still has the capacity to absorb and and respond to the types of shocks which triggered crises elsewhere." Propping up growth through infrastructure spending would "complicate the challenge of rebalancing," the leader said, adding that "slightly lower growth in the future is seen to be a healthy development". It urged China to reform its financial sector by making its exchange rate more flexible, liberalising bank deposit rates, and boosting spending on the "social safety net" to reduce household saving rates. "Without a change in the pattern of growth that relies on credit and investment, vulnerabilities will continue to rise," it said. Failing to do so would threaten Asian expansion, it added. "Asia's potential growth, which has declined in the last few years, could weaken further, particularly if reform implementation is delayed." But for the current year, it said, world export growth "is expected to remain strong given the projected rebound in advanced economies and China".
Related Links The Economy
|
|
| The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement All images and articles appearing on Space Media Network have been edited or digitally altered in some way. Any requests to remove copyright material will be acted upon in a timely and appropriate manner. Any attempt to extort money from Space Media Network will be ignored and reported to Australian Law Enforcement Agencies as a potential case of financial fraud involving the use of a telephonic carriage device or postal service. |