This year's bloom is expected to measure 3 on the HAB severity index, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials said. Moderate blooms have an index of 3-5, while an index above 5 indicates what officials called "more severe" HABs, saying blooms over 7 are particularly severe and disruptive.
A year ago in June, NOAA made a similar prediction about toxic algal blooms affecting western Lake Erie.
In making their prediction on Thursday, NOAA scientists said Lake Erie HABs consisting of cyanobacteria (commonly known as blue-green algae) are capable of producing microcystin, a known liver toxin that poses a human risk. It also is a threat to wildlife in the region.
These kinds of dangerous blooms, officials said, can lead to increased attempts to treat drinking water, as well as the closure of beaches. Fishing and boating also can be affected, which, in turn, can have an effect on regional economies, NOAA said in its announcement. An annual economic impact could reach more than $70 million for the Lake Erie region, NOAA officials said.
In their announcement, scientists also said the size of a harmful algal bloom is not necessarily an indication of how toxic it is, saying that each algal bloom is unique.
"Harmful algal bloom forecasts are critically important for communities around Lake Erie to plan and prepare, and are a key part of NOAA's scientific service to the nation," said Nicole LeBoeuf, director of NOAA's National Ocean Service. "The Great Lakes are a driver of economic activity throughout the region and environmental outlooks can help ensure the hazards of toxic algae are well understood to protect public health."
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