After announcing his intention to leave the Paris climate accord back in 2017, Donald Trump is expected on Monday to send a letter that will trigger a yearlong countdown before the US can formally exit.

But although his administration has largely ignored the landmark agreement since taking power, American officials will continue to play a role in negotiating technical details -- just in case they ever want to come back.

"Because of the historical role the US has played, especially on issues like transparency, other governments will continue to hear them out and allow them to play something of a role," David Waskow, an expert on climate negotiations at the World Resources Institute in Washington, told AFP.

Though the landmark accord went into effect for nearly 200 nations in 2016, various technical aspects over its implementation remain to be ironed out including matters of accounting for emissions and how much data countries will be required to publish.

The State Department told AFP it will send a delegation to the next major UN climate summit, the COP25, in Madrid -- just like it has for every previous such summit since Trump took power.

Article 28 of the 2015 agreement says signatories can only formally ask to leave three years after it takes force, meaning November 4, 2019.

That would mean that the US will remain a signatory until November 4, 2020 -- the day after the next presidential election.

The official letter has long been expected and won't mean anything in concrete terms, but will send a strong signal to the Republican president's base on the campaign trail.

"It wouldn't be surprising to see him try to use this politically," said Waskow.

- Beyond Trump -

Trump's initial announcement that he was pulling the world's number two polluter out of the accord triggered uncertainty over its future -- but so far no other country has followed the United States's lead.

Brazil remains in, despite the election of climate skeptic Jair Bolsonaro, and other big emitters like China, India and South Africa also remain engaged in the process, even if their targets are for the time being deemed insufficient.

Even Russia, which has long given short shrift to climate policy, finalized its participation in September.

Trump's climate nihilism has also had an unintended effect: the emergence of non-federal actors setting their own targets.

"Here at home, states, cities and businesses representing more than half of the US GDP and population have committed to take action to meet the Paris Agreement's goals," said Alden Meyer, another climate negotiations expert, from the Union of Concerned Scientists in Washington.

Depending on how you look at it, such efforts represent a half-full or half-empty glass.

The combined reduction targets of California, New York state, multi-billion dollar corporations and more aren't negligible, but they don't compensate for inaction at the federal level.

For example, Obama had set ambitious auto emissions reduction targets, since rolled back by Trump.

Obama's overall greenhouse gas reduction target for 2030 was a relatively modest 26 percent drop compared to 2005 levels, but even that is projected to be missed by about a third, according to an estimate published by the organization America's Pledge, and which will next be updated in December.

The Paris Accord's biggest test will come at COP26, held in Glasgow, Scotland in November 2020.

All of the countries have been asked to increase their targets by then, as part of the overarching goal of cutting emissions to net zero by 2050, the only way scientists believe humanity can limit long term warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels.

The US election falls just before COP26, and its result will determine whether other countries were correct in continuing to engage with their American counterparts.

All of Trump's Democratic opponents have vowed to re-enter into the agreement if elected.

New California fire grows as crews make headway on other blazes
Los Angeles (AFP) Nov 2, 2019 - A new wildfire in California grew to nearly 9,000 acres (3,700 hectares) on Friday, sending thousands of people fleeing and further stretching resources in a state struggling with a spate of wildfires this season.

The so-called Maria Fire erupted Thursday evening in Ventura County, 65 miles (105 kilometers) northwest of Los Angeles, and burned out of control through the night, driven by high winds and threatening 2,300 structures.

By Friday afternoon, the wind-fueled blaze that risked consuming citrus and avocado orchards as well as other crops was zero percent contained. Authorities said 8,000 people were under evacuation orders and at least two structures had been burned.

Ventura County Sheriff Bill Ayub said fire crews had been thwarted by people flying drones in the area.

"Last night and early morning we had individuals flying small drones in the area of the flight operations for the fire suppression," he told a media briefing. "This creates a very significant hazard for our airborne fire fighting assets and causes them to land and stop firefighting efforts as long as that aircraft is in the area."

The Maria Fire erupted as crews continue to battle multiple blazes that have broken out across the state in the last two weeks, prompting massive evacuations and power cuts.

Another fire, the Easy Fire, which broke out Wednesday in Ventura County and came dangerously close to the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, was almost fully contained on Friday.

"We're in the middle of a big fight, and we're about a week into this and the end is not yet in sight," Ventura County Fire Chief Mark Lorenzen told reporters Friday afternoon. "It has been an uphill battle ever since."

Up in Sonoma County, north of San Francisco, there was some good news as authorities reported that the Kincade Fire, the largest in the state this season, was 68 percent contained.

The devastating fires that have exploded across the state this season were addressed by teen climate activist Greta Thunberg on Friday as she spoke at a rally in Los Angeles to pressure California lawmakers to pass stricter environmental policies.

- 'Horrible environmental impacts' -

"Today, in California, we can see the wildfires happening just around the corner, wildfires that are being intensified by the climate crisis," the 16-year-old Swede said. "But it's not just here. Everywhere around the world, we can see these horrible environmental impacts that countless people are suffering and dying from."

The fires prompted California Governor Gavin Newsom to declare a statewide emergency this week.

The flames have been fed by bone-dry conditions, especially in the lower part of the state which has not had rainfall for months.

An extreme red flag warning issued for the Los Angeles area this week was lifted Thursday but the National Weather Service warned that so-called Santa Ana winds could still wreak havoc through Saturday evening.

In a bid to reduce the risk of wildfires, the state's largest utility company, Pacific Gas & Electric, has been shutting off power to millions of customers in northern and central California, prompting outrage.

The blazes come as California is still reeling from the aftermath of the most destructive wildfire in state history -- the Camp Fire, which destroyed the town of Paradise and killed 86 people last year.

Similar blazes in northern California, including in the Napa and Sonoma wine regions, killed 44 people in 2017 and destroyed thousands of structures.

There have been no fatalities linked to this year's fires.

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Bundesbank boss rejects climate objectives for ECB
Frankfurt Am Main (AFP) Oct 29, 2019
German central bank chief Jens Weidmann said Tuesday that monetary policy should not be used to fight climate change, contradicting incoming European Central Bank head Christine Lagarde before she takes office. "I see very critically calls for a green monetary policy," Bundesbank head Weidmann told a Frankfurt conference. Preferentially targeting "green" bonds for ECB asset purchase programmes "would contravene the Treaty on European Union" which demands "market neutrality" from monetary policym ... read more