An El Niño event occurs when the surface of the Pacific Ocean warms up, affecting global weather patterns. The event typically happens every two to seven years.
While the phenomenon is linked to increased rainfall in parts of North America, Africa, South America, and Central Asia, it can also cause drought in Australia and parts of Southern Asia.
In contrast, a La Niña event occurs when the surface of the Pacific Ocean cools. Together the phenomena create the El Niño/Southern Oscillation cycle.
In March, the WMO declared an end to a three-year La Nina weather event.
"There is a 60% chance for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño during May-July 2023, and this will increase to about 70% in June-August and 80% between July and September," the WMO said in a press release Wednesday.
The WMO says 2016 was the hottest year on record due to a combination of an El Niño event and global warming.
"We just had the eight warmest years on record, even though we had a cooling La Niña for the past three years and this acted as a temporary brake on global temperature increase," said WMO Secretary-General Pettaeri Taalas, "the development of an El Niño will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records."
The warming caused by an El Niño phenomenon usually occurs the year after it occurs, which means the effects of this year's potential El Niño phenomenon would most likely be observable in 2024.
"The world should prepare for the development of El Niño, which is often associated with increased heat, drought or rainfall in different parts of the world," said Taalas, "it might bring respite from the drought in the Horn of Africa and other La Nina-related impacts but could also trigger more extreme weather and climate events."
In April, the WMO warned that climate change could drive food insecurity and mass migration in its State of the Global Climate 2022 report.
"While greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and the climate continues to change, populations worldwide continue to be gravely impacted by extreme weather and climate events," the WHO said.
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