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TRADE WARS
World's biggest trade deal to be delayed to 2020: draft ASEAN statement
By Jenny VAUGHAN, Aidan JONES
Bangkok (AFP) Nov 3, 2019

What is the RCEP trade deal and what happens now?
Bangkok (AFP) Nov 4, 2019 - Backed by China -- and excluding the United States -- the sprawling Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was poised to link half the world's people and mark Beijing's dominance in Asian trade.

But it took a hit at the close of a three-day Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Bangkok Monday after India said it would not join the deal.

What is RCEP?

Launched in 2012, RCEP is a trade pact between the 10-member ASEAN bloc, along with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and until recently, India.

It was supposed to link around 3.4 billion people and cover about 40 percent of global commerce.

Without India's vast population, the deal will now include 2.1 billion people.

Its aim is to break down trade barriers and promote investment to help emerging economies catch up with the rest of the world.

Why does it matter?

It mainly matters because it doesn't include the US -- and is notably being backed by Beijing.

Observers say it will cement China's domination over its backyard, where it faces little competition from America since President Donald Trump pulled out of a trade pact of its own.

That deal, called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), was on track to be the world's biggest trade pact, until Washington pulled the rug out from under it, saying it funnelled off US jobs.

With Washington and Beijing embroiled in a trade spat of their own, RCEP's backers are hoping to finalise the deal next year even without India.

What was India opposed to?

A few things.

It raised alarm about market access issues, fearing its domestic producers could be hard hit if the country was flooded with cheap Chinese goods.

Textiles, dairy, and agriculture were flagged as three vulnerable industries.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi faced mounting pressures at home to take a tougher stance on the terms, and proved unbending as the RCEP negotiations came to a close.

Thailand was pushing to have the deal finished this year but a final agreement might not come until 2020 now.

What are the odds?

Despite the dramatic pullback from India, odds are still good for the ASEAN bloc to conclude the deal next year in Vietnam.

Diplomats also say India can still join if it changes course.

But it remains to be seen what impact the decision of a country with 1.3 billion people will have on the pact's prospects.

"I will leave it up to the political masters to decide," said Iman Pambagyo, a negotiator involved with the RCEP talks.

The signing of the world's largest trade pact will likely be kicked back to 2020, according to a draft statement by Southeast Asian leaders, delaying a deal craved by China as it seeks to temper the fallout from a painful tariff war with the US.

The 16-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) spans from India to New Zealand and includes 30 percent of global GDP and half of the world's people.

Objections by India have dampened hopes of finalising the pact at this weekend's Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Bangkok, where members of the 10-nation bloc have been joined by the premiers of India and China.

"Most market access negotiations have been completed and the few outstanding bilateral issues will be resolved by Feb 2020," said a draft agreement obtained by AFP.

Negotiations have sputtered for several years, but the statement said the text of all 20 chapters was now complete "pending the resolution of one" member, believed to be India.

But it said all members were "committed to sign the RCEP" next year in Vietnam, which will take over the ASEAN chair.

New Delhi is worried its small businesses will be hard hit by any flood of cheap Chinese goods.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi repeated his country's concerns during talks with ASEAN leaders on Sunday.

Modi said India's unresolved issues include "meaningful market access for all parties", according to a diplomat who attended the meeting, speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity.

Beijing sees RCEP as a central pillar of its trade strategy for its Asian neighbourhood, and it is backed by the leaders of ASEAN and who represent a 650 million-strong market.

Concluding the deal has been made more pressing by the brutal tit-for-tat trade war with the US, which has chipped back at growth in China, the world's second-largest economy.

- Sea tensions -

RCEP -- which includes the 10-nation ASEAN bloc along with China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand -- accounts for 40 percent of global commerce.

The tariffs lobbed by the US and China on billions of dollars worth of each others' goods could drag growth to the lowest rate in over a decade, according to the IMF.

That has spooked Asia-Pacific economies and -- with the exception of India -- sharpened the focus on getting the RCEP deal over the line.

"In just the past two years new protectionism measures have affected nearly $1 trillion of world trade," New Zealand premier Jacinda Ardern told a business meeting on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit.

"We've been a strong proponent for concluding a high quality RCEP as soon as possible."

US President Donald Trump said he hopes to sign a deal with China's Xi Jinping in order to roll back some of the tariffs, telling reporters over the weekend an agreement could be signed in the US state of Iowa.

Chinese premier Li Keqiang said earlier in the day his country remained "firmly committed to supporting ASEAN centrality" as part of its regional ties.

He is expected to drive the case for RCEP when member states meet on Monday afternoon.

Li also professed Beijing's readiness "to work" with ASEAN states on a code of conduct (CoC) in the contested South China Sea.

China, which says the most of resource-laden sea is its own, is accused of aggression and building military outposts in waters claimed by several rival states.

Li described the first reading of the code as "a very important landmark" and committed to a timeline to settle on the wording of the agreement by 2021.

The sea, one of the world's major trade passageways, is considered a flashpoint between China and rival claimants with the US also desperate to keep the waterway open to its vessels.

Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte welcomed the progress of the painstakingly established code but said more needed to be done.

"Let us get this job done sooner than later as we are given the assurance of tranquillity of the area," he said.


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China blasts Pompeo for 'vicious' speech against Beijing
Beijing (AFP) Oct 31, 2019
Beijing slammed US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday for a speech it said had "viciously attacked" China. In the latest hawkish take on China by President Donald Trump's administration, Pompeo Wednesday called Beijing "truly hostile" to the United States, and vowed to ramp up pressure on China on multiple fronts. In response Beijing rounded on his comments Thursday, which it said revealed "arrogance and fear." "This deliberate distortion of the facts and slandering of China's domest ... read more

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