"There is only four percent probability for the... monsoon season rains between June and September to be deficient," the state-run Indian Meteorological Department said in a statement.

D.K. Srivastava, director general of the department, said that the amount of rainfall will be the same as the annual average and provide a growth kick to the economy.

"Everybody has been talking about how important the monsoon rains are for the economy. So this is the good news," he said.

India's economic fortunes swings with the annual monsoon rains and last season's bountiful showers brought a bumper crop that put the country among the ranks of world's fastest-growing nations.

However, the economic growth rate of around eight percent registered in the fiscal year ended March is likely to come down slightly in the coming year despite the normal rains, senior economist D.H. Pai Panandikar said.

"The overall economic growth will be around seven percent. But even this will not be a mean achievement, as the growth will be calculated on a much bigger base" because of the strong performance last year, he said.

Panandikar said a large portion of the growth in the coming year will come from Indian industry as demand for products has began picking up from rural consumers who have more money in their pockets because of the good harvest.

Soaring temperatures in February and March had stoked fears of another withering drought, which shaved down growth in 2002.

Some two-thirds of Indians work in agriculture, making them heavily dependent on the annual rains which sweep India from south to north.

Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's Hindu nationalist-led government called early elections after last year's healthy monsoon helped boost growth.

But Panandikar said the metereological department's predictions would only have a marginal impact on the elections, which will be held in five rounds from April 20 to May 10.

"I don't think it will be a great help in the elections because these predictions don't make sense to the farmer. He will wait for the rains to fall before he believes it," he said.

The government says the strong growth is triggered not only by the monsoon but by reforms in the economy and a thrust of infrastructure development.

Srivastava said Indians could expect more soaring temperatures before the monsoon kicks in next month.

"The weather pattern shows there may not be any relief from the heat spell until the first week of May. But it will subside after that," Srivastava told reporters.

More than 670 million Indians are eligible to vote in the election, the largest in the world.

TERRA.WIRE