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Brazil stock market soars after far-right candidate's first-round win
By Marc BURLEIGH, with Rosa Sulleiro in Sao Paulo
Rio De Janeiro (AFP) Oct 8, 2018

Bolsonaro 'tsunami' swells far-right party in Brazil congress
Bras�lia (AFP) Oct 8, 2018 - A surge of support for a far-right presidential candidate in Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, helped swell the ranks of his small party in the country's Congress in general elections.

His ultraconservative Social Liberal Party, which had just eight deputies in the 513-seat outgoing lower house picked up dozens more seats in Sunday's vote and will have 52 in the new chamber.

In the upper house, the 81-member senate, the party grabbed its first-ever seats: four of them.

One of 63-year-old Bolsonaro's five offspring, his eldest son Flavio Bolsonaro, took one of the senate seats. Another, Eduardo Bolsonaro, was easily re-elected to the lower house.

The results were a surprise to analysts, who had predicted maybe only a handful of lower-house seats would be added to the party.

Although the Social Liberal Party is still a minority grouping, should Bolsonaro win an October 28 runoff to become president he will be able to count on an alliance with dozens of other conservative deputies.

Those politicians represent lobbies collectively being called the "BBB," for "beef, bullets and the Bible."

They count those fronting for powerful agro-business interests, groups demanding freer gun laws, and evangelicals rallying around the Catholic Bolsonaro.

- 'Polarized' congress -

They will bolster the former paratrooper's ability to pass legislation along the lines of his manifesto, which calls for a harsh crackdown on crime, a bolstered police force, easier gun possession, a reduction in environmental restrictions, and a family-first approach.

The fact that less than half the deputies in the outgoing congress managed to win reelection pointed to a widespread desire to punish the legislature for a long string of political corruption scandals.

Bolsonaro, who has been unsullied from the scandals, has promised to clean up graft.

"We are witnessing a very strong pro-Bolsonaro wave, a tsunami that has overturned the legislative landscape, with a congress more to the right and more polarized," said Sylvio Costa, who runs the specialized political news site Congresso em Foco.

Bolsonaro sailed through Sunday's first-round presidential election, picking up 46 percent of the vote.

That makes him the favorite going into the runoff in three weeks time against leftist candidate Fernando Haddad, a former mayor of Sao Paulo, who got 29 percent.

Haddad's Workers Party was one of the losers of the conservative turn. It saw its ranks in congress's lower house drop from 61 to 56, though it remained the chamber's biggest group, just ahead of Bolsonaro's party.

In the upper house, the Workers Party dropped from 13 senators to six.

It was a sharp rebuke for a party which once rode very high on the back of the popularity of former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. But it has since been ravaged by corruption allegations, and Lula himself is in prison for bribery and money laundering.

Other traditional parties, the PSDB of another former president, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, and the MDB of outgoing unpopular President Michel Temer, each lost more than a third of their deputies.

Lula's chosen successor Dilma Rousseff, who was impeached as president two years ago for financial wrongdoing, failed in her bid to get elected to the senate. She came fourth, despite surveys suggesting she had been well-placed to win.

Brazil's stock market soared Monday after far-right firebrand Jair Bolsonaro handily won the first round of the presidential election with a promise of sweeping economic reforms.

While the results energized investors, the election has deeply polarized Brazil, leaving voters with a stark choice in an October 28 run-off that will now take place between Bolsonaro and leftist Fernando Haddad.

At opening, Brazil's Ibovespa index jumped more than six percent. It later stabilized around four percent higher.

An ultra-conservative former paratrooper, Bolsonaro easily beat out a dozen other presidential candidates but did not garner enough votes to avoid a second-round showdown with Haddad, the former mayor of Sao Paulo.

Bolsonaro won 46 percent of the vote to Haddad's 29 percent, according to official results, which exceeded pollster's predictions.

Bolsonaro charged that "polling problems" had cheated him of outright victory in the first round.

His small ultraconservative Social Liberal Party also swelled considerably in Sunday's general election, going from eight seats to 52 in the 513-seat lower house and debuting with four senators elected to the 81-seat upper house.

One of Bolsonaro's sons was elected a senator, and another was re-elected to the Chamber of Deputies.

Analyst Sylvio Costa of the Congresso em Foco website called the result a pro-Bolsonaro "tsunami."

If Bolsonaro ends up as president, he will be able to rely on allied conservative deputies to help pass legislation making good on his pledges to crush crime, tackle corruption and cut climbing public debt through privatizations.

- Divided electorate -

But Bolsonaro faces resolute opposition from a large number of Brazilians horrified at his comments in favor of torture and Brazil's 1964-1985 military dictatorship.

He is also reviled by many for remarks degrading women, making light of rape and slamming homosexuality.

However. a big chunk of the electorate also rejects Haddad's Workers Party, once broadly popular for boom times under former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva but now blamed for a subsequent recession that was the country's worst on record.

Whoever wins the presidency will be confronted with implacable hostility from a big part of the population of 210 million, making governing difficult.

Deepening divisions between the wealthier south and the poorer north of the country appear inevitable -- and, some observers say, dangerous.

Reviving the economy is seen as vital, and it's there that Bolsonaro has proved canny by tapping a respected US-educated neoliberal economist, Paulo Guedes, as his advisor.

Guedes, who proposes a free-market shock treatment to upend Brazil's longstanding protectionism, is likely to be finance minister at the head of a "superministry" overseeing the economy, industry, trade, investment and planning.

It was that prospect that spurred Brazil's markets.

Surveys suggest Bolsonaro has the edge going into the run-off. Haddad was expected to close the big gap by picking up substantial support from the defeated candidates, but it was unclear by how much.

"Bolsonaro is favored to win in a runoff and, as such, we are increasing his odds of winning from 60 percent to 75 percent," the Eurasia Group political analysis firm said in a briefing note.

Political analyst Fernando Meireles of Minas Gerais Federal University said: "The probability of Bolsonaro coming out victorious seems pretty big right now."

- Reaching out -

Both candidates were starting to reach out to centrists in a bid to broaden their appeal.

"We are going to speak with all the democratic forces in the country," Haddad said as he left a prison where he held his weekly consultation with ex-president Lula, who is serving a 12-year prison term for corruption.

Haddad said he already spoke with the third-placed candidate knocked out of the race Sunday, center-left politician Ciro Gomes.

"We are totally prepared to modify parts of our program so it is more representative of the democratic alliance we want to build," Haddad said.

Bolsonaro, for his part, said on Facebook he wanted to "put politics at the service of Brazilians, and no longer put Brazilians at the service of politicians."


Related Links
Democracy in the 21st century at TerraDaily.com


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DEMOCRACY
Bolsonaro, Haddad hold different visions of Brazil future
Rio De Janeiro (AFP) Oct 8, 2018
Right-winger Jair Bolsonaro and leftist candidate Fernando Haddad, who will contest a second-round runoff to become Brazil's next president, hold diametrically opposed visions of Brazil's future. Here is a glance at their key policy differences: - Economy - BOLSONARO: Reduce public debt by 20 percent through a raft of privatizations and the sale of state properties. - Create a parallel private pension system. - Reduce the number of ministries: "the country will work better with fewer ... read more

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