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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China 2015 GDP target in focus as stimulus expectations heat up
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Dec 07, 2014


China film mogul says $62m van Gogh buy cheaper than expected
Hong Kong (AFP) Dec 06 - A Chinese film mogul who purchased a Vincent van Gogh still life for a record $62 million, Saturday admitted he would have paid even more for the masterpiece.

Wang Zhongjun, chairman of the high-powered Huayi Brothers film studio, bought van Gogh's 1890 painting "Still Life, Vase with Daisies and Poppies" for $61.8 million at Sotheby's in New York in November.

Speaking at a presentation at the auction house's Hong Kong gallery Wang said the price -- a record for a still life painting by the artist -- was "a bit lower" than he had been expecting to pay.

"I like it, it's not a matter of price, it's like I didn't spend money, it hangs on the wall and it belongs to me," Wang said.

"Van Gogh is my favourite artist in terms of his use of colours and many other aspects," he added.

The painting had been valued at $30 to $50 million before the sale.

Wang, who will be hanging the piece at his Hong Kong home, is the latest wealthy Chinese businessman to make an eyebrow-raising art purchase.

Forbes Magazine put Wang's net worth at nearly $1 billion, the 268th richest person in China.

Huayi Brothers Media is one of the largest private entertainment groups in China and has produced and distributed some of the country's popular movies and television productions, according to its website.

Last year, tycoon Wang Jianlin's Wanda Group bought the 1950 Pablo Picasso painting "Claude and Paloma" for $28 million, more than double the high estimate of $12 million.

At the time, the company came under fire for the extravagant purchase, with some Chinese Internet users questioning Wang's patriotism and the painting's value.

Wang Zhongjun came under similar criticism in November.

Chinese collectors have sent prices for their own country's heritage spiralling on the back of its economic boom, and are now turning their attention to Western items too.

The last great wave of Asian buying came as Japan reached the height of its economic power in the 1980s, culminating in 1990 when Japanese paper tycoon Ryoei Saito bought van Gogh's Portrait of Dr Gachet for $82.5 million and Renoir's Bal du Moulin de la Galette for $78.1 million.

He triggered outrage across the art world later when he said he would have the canvases put in his coffin and cremated with him when he died.

Global Resorts raises offer in Club Med bidding battle
Paris (AFP) Dec 05, 2014 - The bidding war for French holiday group Club Med heated up Friday as Italian businessman Andrea Bonomi's Global Resorts said it raised its offer to counter the takeover ambitions of Chinese rival Fosun.

Bonomi's group has offered 24 euros per share valuing Club Med at 915 million euros ($1.125 billion) in the takeover competition that began more than 18 months ago and is the longest in the history of the Paris stock market.

The Chinese conglomerate's latest bid, joined by Brazilian investor Nelson Tanure, on Monday was 23.50 euros per share valuing the holiday group at 890 million euros.

Trading of Club Med shares in Paris, which the French regulator AMF had suspended at mid-day, resumed late afternoon and closed up 2.18 percent at 24.32 euros per share.

AMF also announced a deadline of December 19 for Fosun to make a new counter-offer.

After Fosun's last offer, Club Med's board of directors had said it was "concerned about the consequences of the higher bids" and the impact of a high purchasing price on the group's employees and partners.

At the same time, Club Med's CEO Henri Giscard d'Estaing has expressed his support for Fosun's bid.

At a press conference on Friday Bonomi defended his counter-offer, which has been criticised as making Club Med too expensive, saying "Club Med is a business that needs love."

China is poised to cut its growth target for the first time in three years and ramp up stimulus as the economy comes under increasing downward pressure, analysts say ahead of a key policymakers' conference expected this week.

President Xi Jinping and other top leaders are trying to put China's increasingly affluent consumers at the centre of the world's second-largest economy, rather than investment and exports, and are ready to tolerate slower expansion in GDP to achieve more sustainable growth.

But how much lower is the question, with China's economy assailed on multiple fronts including a deflating property bubble, high debt levels, and the threat of deflation hovering in the background.

Economists will be looking for clues in next year's gross domestic product (GDP) growth target, which is likely to be decided at the annual Central Economic Work Conference.

The gathering -- which is not announced in advance -- is expected this week, although its conclusions will probably not be formally unveiled until March.

Separately, main monthly economic statistics are due this week, with analysts expecting weakening industrial production growth and chronically low inflation.

The closely watched economic conference brings together key officials to decide policy for the coming year, with topics expected to include monetary policy, the consumer price index (CPI) target, and further economic reforms.

"We expect the government to lower its 2015 economic targets for GDP growth to 7.0 percent from 7.5 percent in 2014 and CPI inflation to 3.0 percent from 3.5 percent," Nomura economists wrote.

"We believe the government will need to ease policy further -- even to meet a lower GDP growth target -- due mainly to strong headwinds from the property market correction, severe overcapacity in upstream industries and high local government debt."

China last lowered the target in 2012 to 7.5 percent from 8.0 percent and a drop to 7.0 percent would be the lowest since 2004.

Slowing growth this year prompted the central bank to carry out a surprise interest rate cut last month, reducing benchmark borrowing costs for the first time in more than two years.

The move wrong-footed many economists, who had expected policymakers to continue with a series of fine-tuning measures introduced from April onwards on concerns that the economy needed a boost.

The cut showed that top leaders "are certainly worried to a certain point" about the economy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting told AFP.

They are likely to take a similar step during the first half of next year, he added, while also reducing the amount of cash banks must keep on their books -- the reserve requirement ratio -- to free up money for lending.

- Shares soar -

The Chinese Communist Party's powerful Politburo gathered Friday ahead of the economic conference, with the official Xinhua news agency citing a statement that in 2015, the government will "keep the economy operating within a reasonable range".

It gave no details on precise measures that might be taken.

ANZ economist Liu Li-Gang said that authorities need to push broader reforms beyond tweaks to monetary policy.

"China should allow rapid development of its capital markets in the future to replace banks as the pillar of the financial system," he said. "Or else it's very likely that a credit contraction-led economic slowdown will emerge."

But the slowing growth outlook has not dented enthusiasm for Chinese shares, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite index leaping 38.8 percent so far this year. Much of the improvement has come in the wake of the interest rate cut and amid expectations for more stimulus.

Growth in industrial production, which slowed in October, is likely to have taken another hit in November, economists say, as China ordered factories in and around Beijing to close to ensure blue skies for the APEC summit.

The figure is due on Friday, two days after the monthly inflation statistics. Consumer and producer price inflation have both been weak in China, and the latter has been negative for more than two years.

Capital Economics economists Julian Evans-Pritchard and Mark Williams see CPI falling to a near-five-year low of 1.5 percent in November, down from 1.6 percent in October, with further falls ahead.

Still, they described worries about the threat of deflation as "overdone".

"With the prices of industrial inputs falling, but factory gate prices of finished consumer goods flat, many firms are actually better off," they wrote.

"Meanwhile, since much of the downward pressure on inflation is the result of global price falls, consumption in real terms should receive a boost."


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