Free Newsletters - Space News - Defense Alert - Environment Report - Energy Monitor
. Earth Science News .




DEMOCRACY
Egypt's power crisis: Army's still the final arbiter
by Staff Writers
Cairo (UPI) Jul 2, 2013


disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

President Mohamed Morsi has rejected an army ultimatum he and his political rivals resolve a violent power struggle or face military intervention by Wednesday.

But the bottom line is, 2 1/2 years after longtime dictator Hosni Mubarak was ousted, the country's future still lies in the hands of the army because of growing friction between the Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood who took over and the secular liberals and Christians who oppose them.

There are some fears of a coup by the 310,000-strong army. But most observers believe that's not on the cards -- for the moment anyway -- if only because the generals don't want to find themselves stuck with the impossible task of trying to resolve the crisis and maintain order amid such stark political divisions.

"Obviously we feel this is a military coup," one of Morsi's aides told The Guardian newspaper of London. "But the conviction within the presidency is that the coup won't be able to move forward without American approval."

And that's likely to be the case, for the time being at least.

Egypt's military, largely equipped with U.S. weapons systems, is dependent on U.S. military aid of $1.3 billion a year, its reward for a U.S.-brokered landmark peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

"Egypt's geopolitical relevance will endure for quite some time, even if the country ceases to be a confident leader of the Sunni Arab world," observed the U.S. global security consultancy Stratfor.

"The Suez Canal is, and will remain, a vital path for global shipping, and Egypt's proximity to the Gaza Strip, as well as the long-standing cease-fire with Israel, will influence Washington to maintain links with the Egyptian military, if not the government in Cairo.

"The Egyptian military is the primary guarantor of the security of both the Suez Canal and Egypt's border with Israel," Stratfor noted.

"As long as the military maintains its position as the strongest pillar within the Egyptian state, the United States is unlikely to interfere with Egyptian affairs."

Some fear a worse scenario than a coup. Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, a former Israeli defense minister and a close friend of Mubarak, says the situation in Egypt "has reached the point of no-return -- it's the beginning of a civil war."

A military coup or a civil war could both jeopardize the 1979 peace agreement between Israel and Egypt. But the military's actions also hearkened back to the cataclysmic consequences of Algeria's generals who canceled a parliamentary election that Islamists were set to win in December 1991.

That ignited a ferocious decade-long civil war that produced jihadist militants still causing mayhem today.

The specter of the Algerian slaughter may not be entirely apt, since the Egyptian Brotherhood won its election in 2012. But they may now see that being taken away.

If Gen. Abel-Fattah al-Sisi, who Morsi named defense minister and commander in chief of the Egyptian armed forces and who issued the 48-hour ultimatum Monday, does decide to take power, history would have come full circle for Egypt.

On July 23, 1952, King Farouk I, a corrupt and profligate ruler, was overthrown in a military coup led by Gen. Mohammed Naguib and the reform-minded Free Officers, quietly backed by the United States and the Soviet Union. But the real power was a young colonel, Abdel Gamal Nasser, who in February 1954 seized control, the first of a string of military dictators that ended with Mubarak, a former air force commander, Feb. 11, 2011.

Even after Mubarak, a military junta ran the country until Morsi's election as president -- by a slender majority -- in June 2012.

Now, with Egyptians baying for Morsi's removal -- the army claims 14 million people took to the streets Sunday calling for him to go -- whoever runs Egypt will be riding a tiger.

The army, despite its reluctance to intervene, is being forced to act as a referee to avert a bloodbath in the streets. That can't last for long.

"Egypt's political polarization means that whoever leads the country in the next stage will face significant opposition from powerful political and institutional forces," observed Oxford Analytica.

"This will further reduce the appetite of the country's leadership to push through tough economic reforms necessary to win back the confidence of foreign investors, and to stave off a deeper economic crisis."

.


Related Links
Democracy in the 21st century at TerraDaily.com






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle




Memory Foam Mattress Review
Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News





DEMOCRACY
Protesters target Hong Kong leader on handover anniversary
Hong Kong, Hong Kong (AFP) June 30, 2013
As Hong Kong marks the 16th anniversary of its handover to China on Monday, hundreds of thousands are set to protest against the city's pro-Beijing leader amid growing frustration over the pace of political reforms. The demand for universal suffrage, as well as livelihood issues such as a widening income gap and soaring property prices, are expected to drive the massive rally as protesters f ... read more


DEMOCRACY
RESCUE Consortium Demonstrates Technologies for First Responders

India chopper crash kills 20 as flood rescue forges on

India rescue chopper crash death toll rises to 20

WIN-T Increment 1 Enables National Guard to Restore Vital Network Communications Following a Disaster

DEMOCRACY
Low-power Wi-Fi signal tracks movement -- even behind walls

Gartner trims global IT spending forecast for the year

China sets rare earth export quota for second half

EU approves compromise on 'shipbreaking' in South Asian countries

DEMOCRACY
El Nino unusually active in the late 20th century

Survival of the Galapagos sea lion

Boat noise stops fish finding home

Major changes needed for coral reef survival

DEMOCRACY
Is Arctic Permafrost the "Sleeping Giant" of Climate Change?

The rhythm of the Arctic summer

Global cooling as significant as global warming

Warm ocean drives most Antarctic ice shelf loss

DEMOCRACY
Cattle grazing and clean water are compatible on public lands

Rapid colorimetric detection technology enables illegal cooking oils with no place to hide

China officially opens EU wine investigations

How Size-related Food Labels Impact How Much We Eat

DEMOCRACY
Dalila grows into hurricane off Mexico coast

India bans building along rivers in flood-hit north

Five dead, dozens injured in Indonesia quake

Indonesia quake kills six children, traps 14, in mosque collapse

DEMOCRACY
UN peacekeepers take over ahead of Mali polls

Obama: no Cold War for Africa

Nigerian troops deadly rampage in April incident: report

Mali coup leader says sorry: military source

DEMOCRACY
What Is the Fastest Articulated Motion a Human Can Execute?

Skull find challenges claim about first white man in eastern Australia

Lessons at home and homework at school in US

Social network size predicts social cognitive skills in primates




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement