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Extreme Events Challenge Chinese Weather Forecasters

Vo Thi Lai, 65, reacts to news her two sons are among fishermen killed by Typhoon Chanchu, Nghia An, a commune of the Quang Ngai Vietnamese province, south of the central Vietnamese city of Danang, 20 May 2006. Almost 300 Vietnamese fishermen were missing and 28 reported dead, three days after powerful Typhoon Chanchu sank at least 11 ships in the South China Sea, officials said. Photo courtesy of AFP.
by Staff Writers
Beijing (XNA) May 22, 2006
The increasingly extreme weather events are challenging meteorologists in China, although they successfully predicted the movement of typhoon Chanchu. The remarks were made by experts attending a national climate technology conference which opened in Beijing Thursday.

Typhoon Chanchu hit southeastern China on Thursday and killed 11 people.

Typhoon Chanchu disclosed that extreme weather events are increasing in frequency partially due to global warming, said DingYihui, a famed meteorologist and an academician with the Chinese Academy of Engineering.

The time of Chanchu hitting land was rather early this year, about one month earlier than the average date of the first typhoonstriking the land in previous years, he said.

Some typhoons are also showing up extremely late. The latest example was the typhoon that occurred in December in 2004. "When it passed Japan, the temperature soared remarkably and some localsjust wore T-shirts in winter," Ding said.

Increasingly extreme weather events are challenging traditionalweather forecast models, Ding said.

Now China's forecast error on the typhoon averaged 135 km, which means if the typhoon is forecast to land at Xiamen, in Fujian Province, it might land at neighboring Zhejiang Province, Ding said.

The error comes mainly from lack of oceanographic statistics, Din said.

The early appearance of Chanchu was partially caused by La Nina,a Pacific Ocean phenomenon that would result in warmer current in the western Pacific and early appearance of typhoons, Ding acknowledged.

Meteorologists should make weather forecast more "complicated",integrating information on global climate, ocean, atmosphere and continents, Ding said.

China's National Meteorological Technology Conference will lastfor two days. It's the first national conference of its kind in China in the past ten years.

China has made remarkable progresses in improving meteorological technology over recent years and now owns seven meteorological satellites developed by itself, but its meteorological technology still lags behind other developed nations, said Xu Xiaofeng, deputy-head of the CMA.

Source: Xinhua News Agency

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Beijing (XNA) May 22, 2006
A 10-year study on sandstorms has cast new light on the origins and movements of the dusty phenomenon. The storms are closely related to Siberian cold fronts, and come along three different routes, said Kang Ling, deputy director of the Observatory of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.







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