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Outlook bleak for China emissions
Beijing (UPI) Sep 17, 2009 Given China's rapid economic growth, its emissions are not likely to fall low enough to avert a global temperature reduction of 2 degrees -- considered the minimum to prevent the worst of climate change -- according to an influential think-tank study. The 2-degree limit, formally adopted by the Group of Eight nations in July, does not provide adequate compromises for developing countries such as China, says the report released Wednesday by the Energy Research Institute. In announcing the study -- "China's Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050" -- Dai Yande, deputy chief of the institute, put the blame on wealthy nations for failing to reach the emissions targets set at Kyoto in 1997. China's willingness to agree to emission targets is seen as crucial to the success of December's U.N.-backed conference on climate change to reach a new agreement that would replace the Kyoto Protocol, the first phase of which expires in 2012. China has argued that its priority must be economic growth to relieve poverty among its vast population. "Twenty percent of the world's population takes 80 percent of wealth and emits 70 percent of greenhouse gases," Yande said, the Guardian reports. "You should not target China to fulfill the 2-degree target. That is just a vision. Reality has deviated from that vision," Yande said. Because China -- the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels -- is immersed in a huge development phase, it faces obstacles in moving towards a low-carbon path, said He Jiankun, study co-author and former executive vice president of Tsinghua University. "There is a huge number of cities to be built. They will consume a large amount of steel and cement. This means that emissions will not be reduced for some time," Jiankun said. According to the study, China' total energy consumption would exceed 100 billion tons of standard coal by 2050, far exceeding the global capacity, if the calculation was based on energy consumption growth from 2002 to 2008, state-run news agency Xinhua reports. If calculations were based on China's growth from 1978-2008, then the country's projected coal consumption would be around 27 billion tons by 2050. Last year's global consumption of coal totaled 16.1 tons. Yang Fuqiang, director of global climate solutions at the China office of WWF, said China stands to suffer the most as a result of climate change but is not likely to change direction on its emissions stance in the near future. "China emits most (of the) carbon in the world. We don't want this hat, but we may have to wear it for many more years," Fuqiang said, the Guardian reports. The study, carried out over two years and involving more than 100 researchers, was conducted by 10 independent institutes including WWF and the U.S.-based Energy Foundation. It comes ahead of next week's climate change conference in New York, where Chinese President Hu Jintao is expected to provide information on his country's climate change strategy.
earlier related report "We are already taking a number of actions that will result in significant reductions of our greenhouse gas emissions," Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh told the Indian Express in an interview. "We are in a position to quantify these reductions into a broadly indicative number that can be shared with the rest of the world. I see no problem with that," Ramesh said. India and other developing countries such as China have refused to sign on to binding targets for cuts, believing rich countries should shoulder the main responsibility for mitigating global warming. Ramesh admitted his statement signalled a shift in India's climate change strategy before the crucial December 7-18 summit in Copenhagen, under the 192-nation UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The meeting aims to craft a post-2012 pact for curbing the heat-trapping gases that drive global warming. "Yes, there is a nuanced shift. But this shift is not in our negotiating stand. The stand remains the same. We are not going to accept any legally-binding commitments on carbon emissions," Ramesh added. Chandra Bhushan, associate director at the independent Centre for Science and Environment group in New Delhi, said Ramesh's statement flowed from a national action plan on climate change unveiled last year. "This is the first time Ramesh has talked of quantifying reductions," he said. "It takes the debate forward on what India can do domestically and voluntarily. Basically India is saying that 'we will do what we can on our own and if there is a number to be put on it we will do that'," he said. India's per capita emissions are among the lowest globally as much of the country is without power, but it is still in volume terms among the top five carbon emitters in the world. India's new formulation is aimed at banishing the impression that New Delhi was a potential spoiler or deal breaker, Ramesh said. "For long, this canard is being spread that India has been holding up an agreement... that India is not proactive on climate change. This should be able to nail those lies," he added. Last week, Ramesh told a gathering attended by Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen in New Delhi that India wanted a deal at Copenhagen that is "credible, equitable and pragmatic," but that failure to reach consensus would not mean the end of negotiations. India has said it is committed to combating climate change but has steadfastly opposed binding emissions targets on the grounds that they would hinder rapid economic progress. A series of independent studies released in September showed that India's per capita emissions are expected to nearly triple in the next two decades, but still remain below the current global average. India has pledged not to let its per capita emissions exceed those of developed countries, and hopes this will win it some credibility at the upcoming talks in Copenhagen. The government has highlighted forest regeneration, clean coal energy, and sustainable development schemes to demonstrate their seriousness. Share This Article With Planet Earth
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