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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Outside View: Tax reform: Eliminate the income tax and IRS
by Peter Morici
College Park, Md. (UPI) Feb 27, 2013


Yellen: winter weather a factor in weak data
Washington (AFP) Feb 27, 2014 - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Thursday that the intense winter storms of the past two months have been one cause of the recent run of weak US economic data.

But, after several key indicators came in well below expectations since she last addressed the state of the economy, Yellen said that Fed policy makers are on the watch for any fundamental changes in the pace of growth.

"We have seen quite a bit of soft data over the last month or six weeks," she told the Senate Banking Committee.

"I think it's clear that unseasonably cold weather has played some role in much of that.

"What we need to do and will be doing in the weeks ahead is to try to get firmer handle on exactly how much of that set of soft data can be explained by weather and what portion, if any, is due to softer outlook."

Since December and notably since Yellen expressed confidence in the economy's health in an appearance at a House of Representatives panel on February 11, middling or weak data on job creation, retail sales, industrial production and the housing sector has surprised analysts.

While many have downplayed the disappointing indicators as the impact of severe storms which shut down stores and discouraged companies from actively hiring, the persistence of the numbers has some worried that the economy is more broadly slowing.

The question could determine how the Fed continues with its two-month-old operation to reduce its bond buying stimulus program, cut by $20 billion since December to the current level of $65 billion a month.

Yellen said the Fed remained committed to tapering the stimulus, which in current Fed expectations would be wound up by late this year.

"If there's a significant change in the outlook, certainly we would be open to reconsidering (the stimulus taper), but I wouldn't want to jump to conclusions here," she told the Senate panel.

If there is a signficant change in the economic outlook from what the Federal Open Market Committee outlined in recent months, she said, the plan to taper the bond purchase program could be reconsidered.

Yellen, who became chair of the Fed on February 1, generally adhered to the most recent forecasts of the monetary policy-making Federal Open Market Committee, which see growth proceeding this year at a moderate pace and no reason to worry about price rises.

And she showed no sign of deviation from the policies of her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, who kept Fed policy over the past five years focused on helping the jobs market in the absence of any threat of inflation.

Yellen confirmed that inflation remains well below the Fed's two percent target, while unemployment remains a significant problem, despite the fall in the official jobless rate to 6.6 percent in January.

She said an "unusually high" portion of the fraction of the US labor force works part time because full time jobs are not available.

"That's an additional seven million-plus Americans who are involuntarily employed part time. And we have unusually high fraction of Americans who are unemployed and have been for substantial amounts of time," she added.

Americans desperately want a fairer tax system and relief from arbitrary treatment by the Internal Revenue Service. True reform requires simply junking the personal and corporate incomes in favor of a consumption tax.

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp, R-Mich., estimates tax filing, recordkeeping and the like amounts to costs totaling $168 billion a year -- a terrible waste exceeding 10 percent of the taxes collected.

Much of the personal information revealed is a terrible invasion of privacy and the constant fear the IRS will audit taxpayers for their political activities is outright tyranny.

The tax code is riddled with special interest provisions that favor rich donors to political campaigns, distort business decisions and consumer choices and handicaps U.S. economic growth and jobs creation.

Camp proposes to eliminate or modify many exemptions, deductions and other special provisions but just the summary of those reforms takes 194 pages to explain in language only a tax expert could fully comprehend.

Despite noble intentions, much of the morass would remain and the biggest beneficiaries would be lawyers and accountants tasked by the rich and big corporations to game the new system.

The tax code would continue to heavily tax the United States' biggest jobs creators -- small businesses that cannot afford those professionals to effectively compete with big corporations -- and to disadvantage U.S. businesses in foreign markets where governments rely more on consumption taxes than levies on income.

In 2013, the U.S. Treasury collected $1.6 trillion from corporate and personal income taxes. This could be replaced by a 12 percent sales tax on all private purchases and other payments -- be they computer equipment, college tuition or lunch at the corner takeout.

Businesses and institutions would then pay to Treasury the taxes they collected, less sales taxes paid on purchases of materials and equipment, rent and the like.

This subtraction would avoid the double taxation of materials and equipment businesses purchase and create a value added tax often proposed by advocates of reform. It would end forever all the headaches associated with valuing inventories, calculating depreciation on capital equipment and other work that cost billions in accounting and legal fees.

A value-added tax would favor no activity over another and, by taxing goods and services at the point of sale, it would end the problem of U.S. firms parking profits abroad to avoid taxes.

Businesses and institutions would file a three-line return, how much tax they collected, how much they paid and the difference.

Individuals would file no tax return at all!

Temptations would abound to exclude or exempt all kinds of activities but that is the kind of thinking that gave us the current mess -- and inequities, slow growth and exceeding complex tax returns.

Two problems remain. A VAT isn't progressive -- it taxes rich and poor consumers at the same rate. The elderly, who more or less live on savings, have already paid income taxes on those savings and would be taxed again.

A simple solution would be to raise the rate to 15 percent and award each parent $4,000 for each child and pay similar amounts to each American over 65.

If Congress wants to spend more, it could raise the rate further. That would make transparent to all the cost of spending more on government activities. If conservatives on Capitol Hill want to cut programs, they could explain to voters how much those savings would lower the rate.

Elegant, egalitarian and efficient, such a value-added tax without exemptions would give Americans the tax reforms they want but privileged rich folks and big businesses spend a fortune avoiding.

The economy would grow faster, create more jobs and Americans would live better and in less fear. And that is what America is supposed to be about.

(Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and a widely published columnist. Follow him on Twitter: @pmorici1)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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