Free Newsletters - Space - Defense - Environment - Energy - Solar - Nuclear
..
. Earth Science News .




WATER WORLD
Sea level rise could exceed one meter in this century
by Staff Writers
Potsdam, Germany (SPX) Nov 29, 2013


File image.

In contrast, for a scenario with strong emissions reductions, experts expect a sea-level rise of 40-60 centimeters by 2100 and 60-100 centimeters by 2300. The survey was conducted by a team of scientists from the USA and Germany.

"While the results for the scenario with climate mitigation suggest a good chance of limiting future sea-level rise to one meter, the high emissions scenario would threaten the survival of some coastal cities and low-lying islands," says Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

"From a risk management perspective, projections of future sea-level rise are of major importance for coastal planning, and for weighing options of different levels of ambition in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions."

Projecting sea-level rise, however, comes with large uncertainties, since the physical processes causing the rise are complex. They include the expansion of ocean water as it warms, the melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps and of the two large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, and the pumping of ground water for irrigation purposes.

Different modeling approaches yield widely differing answers. The recently published IPCC report had to revise its projections upwards by about 60 percent compared to the previous report published in 2007, and other assessments of sea-level rise compiled by groups of scientists resulted in even higher projections. The observed sea-level rise as measured by satellites over the past two decades has exceeded earlier expectations.

Largest elicitation on sea-level rise ever: 90 key experts from 18 countries
"It this therefore useful to know what the larger community of sea-level experts thinks, and we make this transparent to the public," says lead author Benjamin Horton from the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University in New Jersey.

"We report the largest elicitation on future sea-level rise conducted from ninety objectively selected experts from 18 countries."

The experts were identified from peer-reviewed literature published since 2007 using the publication database 'Web of Science' of Thomson Reuters, an online scientific indexing service, to make sure they are all active researchers in this area. 90 international experts, all of whom published at least six peer-reviewed papers on the topic of sea-level during the past 5 years, provided their probabilistic assessment.

The survey finds most experts expecting a higher rise than the latest IPCC projections of 28-98 centimeters by the year 2100. Two thirds (65%) of the respondents gave a higher value than the IPCC for the upper end of this range, confirming that IPCC reports tend to be conservative in their assessment.

The experts were also asked for a "high-end" estimate below which they expect sea-level to stay with 95 percent certainty until the year 2100. This high-end value is relevant for coastal planning. For unmitigated emissions, half of the experts (51%) gave 1.5 meters or more and a quarter (27%) 2 meters or more. The high-end value in the year 2300 was given as 4.0 meters or higher by the majority of experts (58%).

While we tend to look at projections with a focus on the relatively short period until 2100, sea-level rise will obviously not stop at that date.

"Overall, the results for 2300 by the expert survey as well as the IPCC illustrate the risk that temperature increases from unmitigated emissions could commit coastal populations to a long-term, multi-meter sea-level rise," says Rahmstorf. "They do, however, illustrate also the potential for escaping such large sea-level rise through substantial reductions of emissions."

B. P. Horton, S. Rahmstorf, S. E. Engelhart, A.C.Kemp: Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300. Quaternary Science Reviews (2013). [doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.11.002].

.


Related Links
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Water News - Science, Technology and Politics






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle




Memory Foam Mattress Review
Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News





WATER WORLD
Feast and famine on the abyssal plain
Moss Landing, CA (SPX) Nov 13, 2013
Animals living on the abyssal plains, miles below the ocean surface, don't usually get much to eat. Their main source of food is "marine snow"-a slow drift of mucus, fecal pellets, and body parts-that sinks down from the surface waters. However, researchers have long been puzzled by the fact that, over the long term, the steady fall of marine snow cannot account for all the food consumed by anim ... read more


WATER WORLD
Typhoons spread Fukushima fallout, study warns

85 people injured in Hong Kong high-speed ferry accident

Philippines says Super Typhoon Haiyan, other storms curb growth

Mass vaccinations for children in typhoon-hit Philippines

WATER WORLD
Use of ancient lead in modern physics experiments ignites debate

Crippled space telescope given second life, new mission

Scientists create perfect solution to iron out kinks in surfaces

What might recyclable satellites look like?

WATER WORLD
Arctic seafloor methane releases double previous estimates

Sea level rise could exceed one meter in this century

China desert lake shrinks by one-third in 13 years: Xinhua

Sea level rise forecasts helped by insights into glacier melting

WATER WORLD
'Noisy' glaciers sound off as they melt into ocean waters

Russian court frees last Greenpeace activist

Greenland's shrunken ice sheet: We've been here before

IceBridge at McMurdo: A Year and a Half of Planning

WATER WORLD
Flower Power - Researchers breed new varieties of chamomile

A plant which acclimatizes with no exterior influence

Archaeologists discover largest, oldest wine cellar in Near East

Typhoon-hit Philippine farmers risk 'double tragedy': FAO

WATER WORLD
Quake near Iran nuclear plant kills 8

2013 hurricane season said quietest since 1950

Indian cyclone weakens, 'no danger,' says weather office

18,000 Indonesians flee erupting volcano

WATER WORLD
Several said dead in air raid in Sudan's Darfur: peacekeepers

Nigeria military says bombed Boko Haram camps

Mozambique police fire tear gas at anti-conscription protest

Chinese businessman charged in Zambia graft case

WATER WORLD
Study suggests inbreeding shaped course of early human evolution

Investments in Aging Biology Research will Pay Longevity Dividend

Research team discovers 'immune gene' in Neanderthals

Ancient, modern DNA tell story of first humans in the Americas




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement