Free Newsletters - Space News - Defense Alert - Environment Report - Energy Monitor
. Earth Science News .




EPIDEMICS
Using transportation data to predict pandemics
by Staff Writers
Evanston IL (SPX) Feb 26, 2013


File image courtesy AFP.

In a world of increasing global connections, predicting the spread of infectious diseases is more complicated than ever. Pandemics no longer follow the patterns they did centuries ago, when diseases swept through populations town by town; instead, they spread quickly and seemingly at random, spurred by the interactions of 3 billion air travelers per year.

A computational model developed by Northwestern University's Dirk Brockmann could provide better insight into how today's diseases might strike. Brockmann, an associate professor of engineering sciences and applied mathematics at the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science, uses transportation data to develop models that better pinpoint the source of an outbreak and help determine how a disease could spread.

The ability to pinpoint with certainty the location of a pandemic outbreak and to predict where and how quickly it will spread would give governments and clinicians an important -- and potentially lifesaving -- advantage in responding to the disease, but current prediction models are limited.

Previous pandemic models have been based on geographical distance, but geography provides an incomplete picture of a pandemic. For instance, New York City and London are geographically very far apart, but with approximately 10,000 people traveling between the cities each day, the cities are far more connected than, for instance, New York City and Milwaukee, which are geographically closer.

"Furthermore, cities with a very high level of connectedness, such as London, are important epicenters for tracking the spread of diseases," Brockmann said. "When a disease reaches these cities, it is likely to spread far and quickly."

Using network theory and official transportation data, Brockmann developed a model that can generate with high accuracy the origin of an outbreak and the predicted arrival times of a pandemic in specific locations. The model can generate these findings using only data about the geographical location and number of occurrences of the disease.

"Spatial disease dynamics become far more straightforward when viewed from the right perspective using our technique," Brockmann said.

.


Related Links
Northwestern University
Epidemics on Earth - Bird Flu, HIV/AIDS, Ebola






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle




Memory Foam Mattress Review
Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News





EPIDEMICS
China reports year's second fatal case of bird flu
Beijing (AFP) Feb 23, 2013
A man in southwestern China has died of bird flu, health authorities said Saturday, becoming the second fatality from the H5N1 virus this year. The 31-year-old died in hospital in the city of Guiyang on Friday, the Guizhou province health department said in a statement, adding that no other human cases of avian flu had been reported in the province. Another city resident, a 21-year-old w ... read more


EPIDEMICS
Rio meet focuses on using science to root out poverty

British PM sparks concern with aid budget proposals

Swiss Re posts 61% profit rise in 2012

Four guilty of manslaughter in Italy quake trial

EPIDEMICS
Tokyo hotel shrinks in new-style urban demolition

Fluids in Space, Shaken Not Stirred

The world's most sensitive plasmon resonance sensor inspired by ancient Roman cup

Sustainable new catalysts fueled by a single proton

EPIDEMICS
Vibrant Mix of Marine Life Found at Extreme Ocean Depths

New projections of 'uneven' global sea-level rise

EU fisheries council tackles discard ban

Wiring the ocean

EPIDEMICS
Data paper describes Antarctic biodiversity data gathered by 90 expeditions since 1956

Frostbite ends Fiennes winter Antarctic expedition bid

Reduced sea ice disturbs balance of greenhouse gases

Flow of research on ice sheets helps answer climate questions

EPIDEMICS
Maize part of coastal Peru diet for 5,000 years

Why sourdough bread resists mold

Cold-tolerant grapes expand wine country

Bees attracted to contrasting colors when looking for nectar

EPIDEMICS
Earthquake shakes buildings in Tokyo

Australia's iron ore centre braces for Cyclone Rusty

Thousands isolated by Australian floodwaters

Gold gifts mystify tsunami-wracked Japan city

EPIDEMICS
Amnesty International accuses I. Coast army of abuses

Regional leaders sign peace deal for eastern DR Congo

Guinea soldiers quit I.Coast village in border dispute

Rising Islamist threat in West Africa

EPIDEMICS
High-tech brain is scientists' goal

How human language could have evolved from birdsong

Stay cool and live longer?

Zuckerberg, Brin join forces to extend life




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement