. Earth Science News .
POLITICAL ECONOMY
Walker's World: Digging holes for euros

disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only
by Martin Walker
Paris (UPI) May 9, 2011
Having got themselves into a hole, the leaders of the eurozone countries have spent the last week digging it deeper by the day.

They began by signaling that Portugal would get a much more lenient interest rate on its bailout loans than Greece or Ireland. This in itself amounted to an admission that the onerous rates charged earlier would, as many economists warned, so depress their economies that they would never get out of debt.

But once Portugal had been given the easier ride, the Irish and Greeks understandably began to demand the same treatment. But even the Portuguese are facing a grim future. They don't at present have a sovereign debt crisis but they soon will. They are being lent $116 billion, which is almost 50 percent of the country's gross domestic product. The loans will take Portugal's debt to more than 120 percent of GDP.

Even though the Portuguese government was unable to get parliamentary approval for its own austerity plan, forcing its resignation with new elections due next month, Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira Dos Santos announced that the politics of the loan had been resolved. The leaders of the country's main opposition parties had all approved the new loan agreement with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

But Dos Santos also said that he expected Portugal's economy to shrink by 2 percent this year and again next year, so critics immediately asked whence would come the growth that would be needed to repay the loans. It is a fair question, one that had previously been asked by the Greeks and the Irish.

For the Greeks, the question is becoming a matter of life and death. Their sovereign debts total $327 billion -- 160 percent of GDP -- and the markets simply don't believe that Greece can or will pay. Interest rates for Greece's two-year bonds are now more than 26 percent. The insurance rates on Greek debt have reached surreal proportions. To insure $19 million of Greek debt for five years now costs $1.37 million a year -- more than $7 million, with compounded interest.

But the Greeks have very few cards to play. The only serious one is the nuclear option: a unilateral withdrawal from the euro and a massive devaluation of the new national currency plus a default on all debt.

This would plunge the European Union and its central bank into crisis and force heavy losses onto a number of French and German banks. It would probably leave the Greeks condemned to fierce austerity for years to come but at least they would inflict some real pain on their EU "partners." Indeed, Jurgen Stark, chief economist of the European Central Bank, has warned that it would provoke the same kind of crash as the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy of 2008.

So when the German magazine Der Spiegel reported last week that a secret meeting of top eurozone finance ministers was being planned for Friday evening at a discreet chateau in Luxembourg, the immediate reaction was to assume that Greek was threatening to go nuclear. The euro accordingly dropped on the currency markets.

The Greeks instantly and loudly denied the story. But then they would, wouldn't they? And once the Friday night meeting had taken place of the Greek, German, Finnish, French and Italian finance ministers, along with EU Finance Commissioner Olli Rehn and hosted by Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, it emerged that this emergency meeting of the eurozone's main creditor nations had a much wider agenda.

Officials claimed the agenda included the Portuguese bailout, the ongoing disputes over a successor to European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and the precise mechanism of the new emergency financial program to help troubled members that is due to start in 2013.

Questions instantly arose: if that was the agenda: Why was the Greek finance minister present and not his Irish and Portuguese colleagues? If this was really a board meeting of the eurozone to discuss the 2013 crisis program, why were only a handful if its members present?

The credibility of the eurozone leaders hasn't been high; it is now shredded. Clearly the Greeks precipitated some kind of crisis last week and the meeting of eurozone creditors was called to deal with it. And perhaps because the news of the meeting leaked, whatever was decided on the Greek issue wasn't revealed to the voters nor to the markets.

The only decision was to continue along the same old path of the last two years, using short-term measures to try to fix immediate problems and then muddle through. The indications are that Greece will get some modifications to its debts, perhaps with a long maturity period and lower interest rates.

"We think that Greece does need a further adjustment program," said Juncker, chairman of the eurozone finance ministers, speaking after the Friday night meeting. "We're not discussing the exit of Greece from the euro area. This is a stupid idea -- no way."

German officials have talked of "biting the bullet" and easing the Greek repayment terms, which is what Athens wanted all along, but there has also been talk of new "collateral" that Greece would have to post to reassure its creditors. Beyond real estate and these state assets that remain after a crash privatization program, it isn't at all clear what they could be.

Even if such collateral can be arranged, the fundamental problem is that the Greeks, Irish and Portuguese have debt crises that are being addressed (and certainly not solved) by the EU partners issuing yet more debt. But the price of that new debt is a degree of austerity and budget cuts that make it difficult to see how the debt can be repaid, even as public opinion in the creditor countries is complaining at good money being thrown after bad.

The hole is deep but they all keep digging.



Share This Article With Planet Earth
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit
YahooMyWebYahooMyWeb GoogleGoogle FacebookFacebook



Related Links
The Economy



Memory Foam Mattress Review
Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News


POLITICAL ECONOMY
US says China's yuan value is top issue in talks
Washington (AFP) May 9, 2011
China's tight control of its yuan currency is a top issue for Washington in bilateral economic relations, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Monday as two-way talks opened. Geithner placed "China's move towards a more flexible exchange rate with more open capital markets" first in a list of key issues to discuss as the two-day US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue opened in Washingt ... read more







POLITICAL ECONOMY
Japan insurance losses slash Berkshire profits

Swiss Re plunges to loss on exceptional disaster claims

Leveraging C4ISR Expertise to Help US Navy Improve Humanitarian and Disaster Relief Effectiveness

Workers enter reactor building at Japan nuclear plant

POLITICAL ECONOMY
More effective and less risky when you paint the hull of your boat

News Corp. buys videogame news sites from Hearst

Android smartphones widen lead in US market

Four injured in iPad fight at Beijing Apple store

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Portable tech might provide drinking water and power to villages

Oceans could rise 1.6 metres by 2100: study

Small fry fish just as vulnerable to population plunges as sharks or tuna

Brazil hits back in anger over dam protest

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Nuclear leak forces Russian icebreaker back to port

Arctic warming could raise oceans 5 feet

Record Arctic warming to boost sea level rise

Calling all candidates for Concordia

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Indonesia turns ASEAN focus to food, energy security

Researchers propose whole-system redesign of US agriculture

It Takes a Community of Soil Microbes to Protect Plants From Disease

Expert panel calls for transforming US agriculture

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Floods swamp tornado-ravaged central US

Japan hit by powerful aftershock: USGS

Japan mulls tsunami lessons for reconstruction

Ecuador on alert after volcano erupts

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Burkina Faso ruling party says opposition aiming for coup

Chinese army gives rocket launchers, weapons to Sierra Leone

Disaster-hit Japan will not cut aid to Africa: spokesman

Diehard pro-Gbagbo militia begin to disarm

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Super-healing researcher follows intuition

No nuts for 'Nutcracker Man'

Why the eye is better than a camera at capturing contrast and faint detail simultaneously

Nutcracker Man Had Fundamentally Different Diet


The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2010 - SpaceDaily. AFP and UPI Wire Stories are copyright Agence France-Presse and United Press International. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by SpaceDaily on any Web page published or hosted by SpaceDaily. Privacy Statement