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EPIDEMICS
West Africa counts economic cost as Ebola outbreak ends
By Rod Mac Johnson
Freetown (AFP) Jan 13, 2016


Ebola: timeline of an epidemic
Monrovia (AFP) Jan 13, 2016 - Key dates in the latest Ebola epidemic, the worst ever outbreak of the haemorrhagic fever which first surfaced in 1976 in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo.

According to the latest toll given by the World Health Organization (WHO), the epidemic has left more than 11,300 dead, mainly in the west African states of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, out of almost 29,000 cases.

- Epidemic starts in Guinea -

- December, 2013: A one-year-old baby dies in southern Guinea and is later identified as "patient zero". The virus remains localised until February 2014, when a careworker in a neighbouring province dies.

- Ebola begins to spread in West Africa -

- On March 31, 2014 two cases are confirmed by the WHO in Liberia, while on May 26 Sierra Leone confirms its first case, to be followed in late July by Nigeria, in August by Senegal and in October by Mali. Senegal and Nigeria are declared free of Ebola in October 2014 while Mali is declared Ebola-free in January 2015.

- Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone cut off from the world -

- May 30, 2014: Ebola is "out of control", according to the aid group Doctors Without Borders (MSF). The three worst-hit countries, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, declare measures including states of emergency and quarantines. Many neighbouring nations close their borders with the affected countries.

- A 'public health emergency' -

- August 8, 2014: The WHO declares Ebola a "public health emergency of international concern". Four days later it authorises the use of experimental drugs to fight Ebola after an ethical debate. That day, a Spanish missionary infected in Liberia dies in Madrid, the first European fatality.

- Death in the US -

- September 30, 2014: A Liberian man is hospitalised in the US state of Texas, the first Ebola infection diagnosed outside Africa. He dies on October 8.

- October 6, 2014: A Spanish nurse in a Madrid hospital becomes the first person to be infected outside Africa. She is treated and given the all-clear on October 19.

- Ebola begins a halting retreat -

- February 22, 2015: Liberia says it is lifting nationwide curfews and re-opening borders, as the epidemic begins to retreat.

- February 26, 2015: The US ends its military mission in west Africa where it had deployed 2,800 soldiers to help in the fight against Ebola, mainly in Liberia.

- Closing in on a vaccine -

- July 10, 2015: International donors pledge $3.4 billion to help stamp out Ebola.

- July 31, 2015: The WHO says an Ebola vaccine provided 100-percent protection in a field trial in Guinea, suggesting the world is "on the verge of an effective Ebola vaccine".

- Hardest-hit countries emerge from the epidemic

- May 9, and September 3, 2015: Liberia is declared Ebola-free by the WHO after no new cases were recorded for 42 days, but the declarations are followed by a resurgence of the virus. On December 4 Liberia releases from hospital its last two known Ebola cases.

- November 7, 2015: Sierra Leone is declared free of the outbreak by the WHO.

- December 29: The WHO declares Guinea's Ebola outbreak over, six weeks after the recovery of its last known patient, a three-week old girl born with the virus.

Gold miner Dauda Kamanda has never been rich, but before Ebola hit Sierra Leone he was getting by selling the nuggets he unearthed to traders who exported them across Africa and the Middle East.

Then, one by one, his Lebanese and Senegalese clients in the northern district of Koinadugu fled as the deadly outbreak gripped the country in 2014, and Dauda's $500 (460-euro) monthly income disappeared.

"After the buyers fled, I had to take a part-time job carrying luggage at the lorry park for people going to the capital," he told AFP.

As the world awaits the announcement on Thursday that the worst-ever Ebola epidemic has been beaten in west Africa, the three most affected countries of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone are taking grim stock of the devastation wrought on their economies.

The epidemic has devastated the mining, agriculture and tourism industries in the region -- already fragile after years of civil war, dictatorship and coups -- where more than 11,000 people died from Ebola.

Strong recent expansion has been curtailed in Guinea and while Liberia has resumed growth, Sierra Leone is in a severe recession, according to the World Bank.

The bank estimates the regional economic damage to have been $2.2 billion over 2014-15 and has mobilised around $1.6 billion for Ebola response and recovery efforts.

- Mine closures -

Fuelled by foreign investment in its mineral wealth, Sierra Leone had made considerable progress in recovering from a brutal 11-year civil war and its economy grew by 11.3 percent in 2013.

But Ebola slashed growth to four percent in 2014 and the economy contracted by a massive 21.5 percent in 2015, according to Finance and Economic Planning Minister Kaifala Marah.

"The traditional growth-driving sectors -- agriculture, mining, et cetera -- were severely disrupted," he told AFP, adding that the damage had been exacerbated by a slump in iron ore prices, the main international export.

Around 7,500 jobs were lost by the closure of two mines run by African Minerals and London Mining, which both went into administration.

A World Bank report released last June said employment had returned to pre-crisis levels, although employees were working fewer hours and earning smaller wages.

In Guinea, where small enterprises and the informal economy are heavily reliant on imports, the closing of air borders that accompanied the crisis were crippling.

"I often went to Dubai and Bangkok to buy gold chains and my shop was always well stocked," businessman Fatou Balde told AFP in Conakry.

"I had a lot of customers, especially among retailers, but now the shelves are empty."

Growth of 2.3 percent in 2013 slowed to 0.6 percent in 2014, although financial institutions expect the Guinean economy to expand by 4.3 percent in 2016.

In Liberia, 12 percent of businesses surveyed during the peak of the crisis have since closed down, according to the London-based International Growth Centre (IGC).

Like numerous entrepreneurs interviewed by AFP, 45-year-old Amadou Diallo, who imports goods from Guinea to Liberia, said the closing of borders at the height of the crisis and an exodus of foreign investment had put him out of business.

"After the first outbreak we had to start over. It was hell really. We could no longer go for goods out of the country, we had to survive on the money we had," he said.

- Reason for hope -

The US Agency for International Development funded a mobile phone survey of 30,000 people across Liberia and Sierra Leone in the first six months of 2015 to find out the impact of Ebola on their finances.

In Sierra Leone 70 percent said their household incomes had dropped since June 2014 while the figure was 60 percent in Liberia.

Yet respondents were confident about job markets recovering, in a note of optimism echoed by ministers in Sierra Leone, who expect the economy to stabilise this year and recover strongly to 19.6 percent growth in 2017.

A further reason for hope, says Dianna Games of South African business consultancy Africa At Work, is the relative good health of the regional economy.

She noted in a recent commentary for the Johannesburg-based newspaper Business Day that growth for the broader Economic Community of West African States is forecast at seven percent for 2016.

"Ebola's effect has been minimal because the three worst-affected countries comprise less than two percent of regional gross domestic product," she said.

rmj-ft/bs/pdw

LONDON MINING


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