President Mahinda Rajapakse, who won November polls promising a brand new peace process that would have sidelined Norwegian peacebrokers, has toned down his hawkish pre-election rhetoric and invited Oslo to continue its role.

But analysts and diplomats warn the ceasefire in effect since February 2002 is close to collapse.

The most serious warning came late last week from the head of the Norwegian-led ceasefire monitoring panel, Hagrup Haukland.

He said "war may not be far away" in the tropical Indian Ocean island nation where at least 83 people were killed last month despite the truce.

The upsurge in violence has also overshadowed efforts to recover from the December 2004 tsunami that killed 31,000 people and left one million homeless.

Rajapakse told reporters last week he was keen to have a negotiated settlement to the conflict and was ready to grant extensive devolution of power to minority Tamils similar to the system of government in neighbouring India.

"Yes, the president is softening his pre-election hard line but I think it is still not enough to revive the peace process," said Sunanda Deshapriya, a director at the private Centre for Policy Alternatives think-tank.

He said both the rebel Liberation Tigers and the government were engaged in a "proxy war" and neither appeared to be willing to back down and make a serious attempt to resume peace talks urgently needed to prevent the country returning to war.

The three-decade-old ethnic conflict between the majority Sinhalese and minority Tamils has claimed over 60,000 lives. Four major peace attempts and several ceasefires have collapsed in the past.

Norwegian diplomats said Oslo's International Development Minister Erik Solheim was expected here later this month on a three-day visit to help bring the parties back to the negotiating table.

Solheim said in a statement he was concerned about an upsurge in shootings and explosions.

"I'm deeply worried by the recent outbreak of violence in Sri Lanka," he said. "To check the spiral of violence, it is urgent that the two parties sit down together to examine ways of maintaining the ceasefire."

Sri Lanka had initially insisted talks with the Tigers be held within government-controlled areas of the island, a demand rejected by the guerrillas, who wanted to stage a meeting either in their territory or abroad.

The government later backed down and agreed to an Asian venue. Sri Lanka's main financial backer Japan offered to host the talks but the Tigers said the talks had to be organised in Oslo, a demand rejected by Colombo.

Former Sri Lankan air force chief Harry Gunatillake said the Tigers appeared to be looking for an excuse to return to war.

"The Tigers are looking for an exit and I think the next few weeks will be very, very crucial," said Gunatillake. "Unless we are able to have direct talks with the Tigers soon, war will be inevitable."

Analysts say the Tigers appear to now want something more than a previously agreed political deal to share power under a federal state.

Pro-Tiger academics have been arguing lately for a "confederation" and cite the example of Hong Kong and mainland China as an example of "two political systems within one country."

Gunatillake said the Tigers were trying to provoke troops with a string of attacks that killed nearly 50 soldiers and police last month.

Meanwhile, Norwegian envoy Solheim's role has come under fire.

President Rajapakse made a dramatic U-turn last month from his pre-election stance and asked Oslo to keep up its peace efforts despite two of his allies staunchly opposing the move.

The Marxist JVP and the all-Buddhist monks party known as JHU are against Norway's role and pressured, but failed, to get it ousted from the peace process.

The JVP reiterated its call to the president last week to reconsider Solheim's role.

"Mr. Solheim should realise he is not a governor of a colonial Sri Lanka," the JVP said, in a statement criticising him for remarks urging both sides to stop their squabbling and get on with talks.

But a source close to Rajapakse said the president is seriously worried about the possibility of renewed hostilities and "appears to have ditched the JVP and the JHU" on this matter.

Neither party has said they will bring down the government over the issue.

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