Tourism Authority of Thailand officials said they were optimistic foreigners would return after a year hit by fallout from the 2004 tsunami, high oil prices, avian influenza scares and violence in the southern provinces.

The authority's governor, Juthamas Siriwan, recently said arrivals had rebounded from the tsunami's impact and added her agency was on track to meets its arrivals target, barring "uncontrollable factors".

But as arrivals in 2005 fell short of the targeted 13 million to 12.1 million to late December, resulting in revenue of 450 billion baht (11 billion dollars), the private sector remains skeptical about the new target.

"Tourist arrivals could reach 13 million in 2006 at best, or approximately a 12.0 per cent increase from last year," Apichart Sankary, president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) told AFP.

Apichart said his association estimated just 11.5 million tourists visited Thailand last year, while arrivals in 2006 could be hit by oil prices, which could push tourism package prices up by 12.0 percent.

During the current peak tourism season, oil prices are trading at between 60 and 65 dollars a barrel, against the 30 dollars a barrel during the same period last year.

The prices -- and the resulting extra charges airlines pass on to passengers through higher ticket prices and fuel surcharges -- puts pressure on potential tourists, particularly those flying long-haul routes from Europe, he said.

Bangkok also needed to solve the unrest in Thailand's three southernmost provinces -- where more than 1,000 people have been killed in almost two years of violence -- because tourists had safety fears, Apichart added.

Tourism along Thailand's tsunami-battered Andaman coast had rebounded significantly in recent months, with hotel occupancy along the southwestern provinces between 60 and 70 percent.

Occupancy in the provinces -- notably Krabi, Phuket and Phang Nga, the latter where most of the 5,395 deaths of Thais and foreigners occurred -- was as low was 10 to 30 percent in January and February.

Apichart said the Andaman coastal provinces generated as much as a third of Thailand's total tourism revenue.

Lalida Phanwichatikul, managing director of Krabi's Maritime Park and Spa Resort, said tourism in the province was picking up, with hotel occupancy rates at 60 per cent and rooms fully booked since November.

Wanlert Kittithornkul, general manager of Phi Phi Island Cabana Hotel, said the sector had rebounded significantly over the past five months.

Arrivals on the island were about 80 percent of those before the tsunami, Wanlert said.

The tourism authority is targeting tourists from Japan, China and South Korea -- many of whom have been staying away in fear of ghosts along tsunami-hit beaches -- to help generate income of 500 billion bahtbillion dollars) next year.

Thai tourism operators have said Japanese tourists watch where European and other western tourists are travelling, while tourists from other East Asian nations watch the Japanese.

Most tourists coming back are from Scandinavian countries, followed by Australians, Britons, Germans and South Koreans, with Phuket their favoured destination, according to the travel agent association's Apichart.

He said international tourists have switched from the Andaman provinces to Bangkok -- where rooms are fully booked -- and areas around the Gulf of Thailand including Hua Hin and Pattaya.

All rights reserved. � 2005 Agence France-Presse. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by Agence France-Presse. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of Agence France-Presse.