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Analysis: China's CO2 burden falls on U.S.

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by Rosalie Westenskow
The Dalles, Ore. (UPI) Mar 17, 2008
Any solution to the world's energy woes hinges on two pivotal players, the United States and China, and most of the heavy lifting may fall on the wealthier of the two, experts said at an energy summit Thursday.

In recent years, China has undergone an unprecedented development boom, accompanied by skyrocketing energy consumption, and overtook the United States last year as the No. 1 emitter of carbon dioxide, according to most estimates.

The International Energy Agency projects the two countries, by 2030, will account for 45 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

This places the two energy giants in the hot spot when it comes to stopping climate change, said Kelly Sims Gallagher, director of the Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group at Harvard University's Belfer Center.

"The United States and China are clearly the two countries with the unique ability to make or break the climate change threat," Gallagher said Thursday at an energy summit hosted by the National Academy of Sciences. "If either one fails to effectively manage their greenhouse gas emissions during this century, it's really almost impossible to substantially reduce the threat of climate change. If both fail, the game is really over."

But the two countries have very different economic profiles. While the United States enjoys the highest gross domestic product in the world, the World Bank estimates 135 million Chinese still live on less than $1 per day.

In addition, China relies more heavily on "dirty" energy sources than its Western counterpart. Currently, China satisfies 70 percent of its energy demands with coal, which is burned in thousands of factories that often have outdated equipment, producing huge amounts of pollution.

Changing to alternative fuels or cleaning up these soot-spewing facilities would likely require vast monetary investments.

As a result, China won't be able to make the changes necessary without help, Gallagher said, and the nation best suited to contribute is the United States.

"Because of China's very heavy reliance on coal and its current stage of industrialization and economic development �� the United States needs to not only start slowing, stopping and reducing its own greenhouse gas emissions, but, frankly, it must face up to the fact that it will have to help China reduce its emissions as well," Gallagher said.

And it's not just pollution or climate change that China's increased consumption affects. Prices for everyone else rise with China's demand, Gallagher said.

"China's demand for oil products has increased dramatically in recent years," she said. "This growth in demand has been correlated with a fairly significant rise in crude oil prices."

A similar correlation can be seen between China's increasing demand for coal and higher prices, Gallagher said, and, although other factors have impacted the price increase, China's influence should not be ignored.

But how exactly the United States should go about aiding China is a sticky issue, said Elizabeth Economy, director of Asia Studies for the Council on Foreign Relations, a non-partisan think tank.

"China is a developing country, but it's a developing country with $1.5 trillion in foreign currency reserves -- that's more than any country in the world," Economy said. "To what extent should they be using that money to invest in renewable technologies and energy efficiency (without international donations)?"

Some experts have suggested a change in U.S. domestic policy, such as a carbon tax or other mandatory emission cuts, could help influence China to take similar measures. While Economy said she agreed a firmer U.S. stance on climate change would make a difference, she also said the Chinese have made it clear they're not willing to sign on to an agreement with hard timelines or targets.

"What they're eager to avoid is something that says, based on carbon content, items are sanctioned and can't be exported and sold in other countries," Economy said.

However, there are a variety of measures the United States could take to aid in efficiency and emissions reduction, said John Mizroch, principal deputy assistant director of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy at the U.S. Department of Energy.

"There may be instances where we could share technology at little or no cost," Mizroch told UPI. "What we need to do right now is figure out what technologies are going to be the best technologies for China -- and China's going to be the one to decide that -- and then figure out the best policies to put in place so those technologies migrate into their commercial marketplace."

Some of the most beneficial technologies the United States could build in China don't actually decrease emissions, they simply track them, said Joanna Lewis, senior international fellow with the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, a non-profit research organization.

"(The Chinese) don't have a very good handle on where their emissions are coming from and where they're going to go in coming years," Lewis told UPI. "The U.S. has an important role to play in building the greenhouse gas registries, the quantification systems and the ability for people to understand the drivers behind their emissions."

Despite the country's large foreign currency reserves and growing GDP, which tripled in the last two decades, Lewis said she thinks the United States should still contribute monetarily to the cause.

"I think there's a role for monetary support in financing demonstration programs for clean coal technology and carbon capture and storage," she said.

Cooperation could lead to benefits for the U.S. private sector, too.

"At the moment, my understanding is that U.S. companies are leading the way with (clean coal technology), and they could have a lot to gain by looking for ways to sell this technology to China," Lewis said.

The U.S. government has already engaged in a number of initiatives targeted at collaborating on energy issues with China and other emerging economies, including the recent establishment of a $2 billion Clean Technology Fund.

As the United States looks to further its involvement, it's important to note China's development relies heavily on affordable energy and has led to largely positive gains, said Reuben Jeffery, undersecretary of state for economic, energy and agricultural affairs.

"Economic growth in China has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty," Jeffery told energy summit attendees Thursday. "The United States vigorously supports this growth and is leading efforts to find ways of limiting the scale of energy use and environmental impacts that accompany development."

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Australia to have carbon trading scheme by 2010: minister
Sydney (AFP) March 17, 2008
Australia will have a carbon emissions trading scheme in place by 2010, under a plan released Monday by the minister for climate change, Penny Wong.







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