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TRADE WARS
Beijing's vow to stabilise the market has worked... for now
By Beiyi SEOW and Sebastien RICCI
Beijing (AFP) March 18, 2022

An unexpected pledge by top Beijing officials this week to shore up the economy sent Asian stocks surging after days of jitters over China's coronavirus rebound, war in Ukraine and an uncertain property market.

It was seen as a sign of China's economic planners acknowledging anxiety over hot-button issues from tech and real estate to listings abroad.

But the soothing words -- delivered after a meeting chaired by Vice Premier Liu He -- are yet to be matched by hard policy decisions.

So what does it all mean?

What has China said and why?

Top financial leaders on Wednesday said they would maintain capital market "stability", support overseas IPOs and reduce risks involving troubled property developers -- whose problems repaying debts have threatened to destabilise the economy.

Their meeting called for policies "beneficial to markets", indirect but instructive language on government concerns which sent shares -- tech stocks in particular -- soaring in Hong Kong.

The comments come as China's annual growth target of around 5.5 percent -- its lowest in decades -- has been challenged by coronavirus resurgences, a property slump and global uncertainty following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Reprieve for tech ?

The announcement was music to the ears of investors in Chinese tech firms, which had been flayed for more than a year by a state crackdown on the sector.

Regulators have targeted everything from their market size to data use, rocking share prices, wiping billions off company valuations and smothering IPOs outside of China.

Scrutiny has hit some of the country's biggest names, including Alibaba and Tencent, pushing once-proud billionaire tech doyens into the shadows.

The latest guidance, which called for more "predictable regulation" of the tech sector, suggests some parts of government are willing to signal more clearly ahead of policy changes.

"It is notable, very notable, that Liu He himself would feel the need to step in," Kendra Schaefer, head of tech policy research at consultancy Trivium, told AFP, forecasting "a more measured approach to reform and regulation".

Yet, she cautioned that scrutiny of the tech behemoths -- which dominate everything from shopping to ride hailing -- and the way they use the public's data "isn't going away".

What about real estate?

China's heavily indebted property sector has sagged under rules dubbed the "three red lines", which targeted debt ratios to reduce the risks of companies going bust.

The rules challenged developers' models of endless debt-driven expansion and major firms have been pushed to the brink of collapse.

Wednesday's statement offered some solace to the bruised sector, experts said.

"One important signal was from the Ministry of Finance, which indicated that there are no plans to expand trials of property tax reforms," said IHS Markit's Asia-Pacific chief economist Rajiv Biswas.

But the statement did not indicate a change to the "three red lines" policy or offer hope of government bailouts to stricken companies.

"The government is unlikely to provide any large-scale support that would benefit distressed developers," said Lucror Analytics' senior credit analyst Leonard Law, although "emphasis on stability may help stem the negative spiral".

And what now for US listings?

Beijing launched security probes on several US-listed Chinese companies after a controversial New York IPO by ride-hailing giant Didi Chuxing went ahead last year despite regulator warnings.

The dim view of US listings came as Washington and Beijing's relations sank to a nadir.

Wednesday's meeting said regulators in China and the US had made "positive progress" on the issue of US-listed Chinese stocks.

Both sides are working towards a cooperation plan, guidance from the meeting said.

The reassurance is backlit by war in Ukraine and US warnings of severe sanctions on anyone who helps Russia.

"The last thing Beijing wants on top of everything else is any form of capital flight," ACY Securities chief economist Clifford Bennett told AFP.

While the responsivity from the top to market sentiment is telling, Hong Hao of financial services firm Bocom International warned "it's a very high-level announcement... We still have to wait for detailed implementation."

Most Asian markets extend global rally, oil rebounds
Hong Kong (AFP) March 18, 2022 - Asian equities mostly rose Friday to end the week on a strong note after a blockbuster rebound boosted by China's pledge of support for its markets, while unease over the Ukraine war helped oil extend a recovery.

After a painful start to the week, global stocks have enjoyed a massive bounce in the past few days thanks to optimism over peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv and after Beijing's signal that it was ready to shore up markets and ease off its tech crackdown.

And while the Federal Reserve announced the first of what many think will be seven interest rate hikes this year, traders have largely accounted for a period of tighter monetary policy.

Focus remains on Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its impact on the global economy as surging commodity prices ramp up expectations of inflation, already at a 40-year high in the United States.

Talks between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will be closely followed, with the White House looking to get Beijing onside in trying to bring an end to the European conflict.

That comes as Russia appeared to play down reports of progress in talks with Ukraine on a ceasefire, while the Pentagon warned Vladimir Putin could threaten to use nuclear weapons if the conflict continues to drag on.

On equity markets, Asia struggled at the start of the day to keep up the momentum seen in New York but most recovered in the afternoon.

There were gains in Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Bangkok and Wellington.

But Hong Kong dipped after soaring a mammoth 16 percent on Wednesday and Thursday in reaction to China's top economic official vowing measures to support beaten-down markets and indicated a regulatory drive against the tech sector was nearing its end.

London edged up at the open but Paris and Frankfurt dipped. US futures were slightly lower.

But while the extreme volatility that has characterised markets since Russia's invasion three weeks ago has died down for now, commentators remain cautious.

"I don't necessarily expect the rest of the year to be that easy," Lori Calvasina, of RBC Capital Markets LLC, told Bloomberg Television.

"Volatility is likely to stay elevated for quite some time", even as sentiment gauges "have been a screaming buy in some respects for quite some time".

The uncertainty over Ukraine, and reports that some lockdown measures in Chinese tech hub Shenzhen -- which helped fuel a markets selloff earlier this week -- were being eased early, has helped push oil prices back up above $100.

And Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said the commodity would probably remain elevated.

"Market internals suggest that oil's downside remains sticky even when Ukraine and Russia are inching towards peace," he said in a note. "So there is a genuine belief that even if the war does end, sanctions on Russia will likely persist, making oil supplies tougher to source for longer."

And Michael Hewson of CMC Markets added: "It's important to note that sentiment remains fragile, and that the risk of further escalation remains a real concern despite the gains of the last two weeks, as Russia continues to get bogged down by rugged Ukrainian resistance."


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TRADE WARS
Stocks fall as Hong Kong hammered again, oil retreats
Hong Kong (AFP) March 15, 2022
Equity markets fell Tuesday, with Hong Kong tech firms leading another collapse in the city's Hang Seng Index following the Covid-19 shutdown of tech hub Shenzhen and worries over Russia's military outreach to China. Concerns about China's economic outlook saw oil prices suffer fresh selling pressure, with WTI falling back below $100 a week after it hit a 14-year high on the back of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Hopes for progress in talks to bring an end to the war in eastern Europe wer ... read more

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