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China retail sales grew at slowest pace in over a year

China retail sales grew at slowest pace in over a year

By Peter CATTERALL
Beijing (AFP) Nov 14, 2025

Retail sales in China grew last month at the slowest pace in over a year, official data showed Friday, highlighting the battle facing authorities' efforts to counteract persistent consumer malaise.

The world's second-largest economy has been confronted with sluggish domestic spending since the end of the Covid pandemic, with a prolonged debt crisis in the property sector weighing on sentiment.

Many economists argue that China must shift to a growth model driven more by consumption than infrastructure investment and exports, long the key sources of activity.

Leaders are targeting overall growth in 2025 of five percent, a goal experts say remains within reach despite an apparent slowdown in the latter half of the year.

"External instability and uncertainty factors remain numerous, domestic structural adjustment pressures are significant, and the stable operation of the economy faces many challenges," Fu Linghui, chief economist at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), told a news conference.

Retail sales rose 2.9 percent on-year last month, data from the NBS showed, slightly lower than the three percent increase recorded in September.

The figure represented the slowest increase since August of last year.

It also marked the fifth straight month of slowing growth since the peak of 6.4 percent reached in May.

The spending slump last month came as Beijing and Washington worked to ease a damaging trade war, with presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreeing in October to a one-year truce.

China's exports have largely remained resilient this year despite Washington's tariffs, with a decline in shipments to the United States offset by increases elsewhere, particularly Southeast Asia.

But spurring activity in the domestic economy has been more challenging.

At a Communist Party gathering last month that was focused on economic planning, leaders said the country must "vigorously boost consumption".

Moody's Ratings warned in a report this week that China's "domestic demand may be slow to revive".

After last month's meeting, priorities are "accelerating innovation in strategic technologies and reinforcing domestic demand through structural improvements in income distribution and social safety nets", the report said.

- Factory slowdown -

NBS data also showed factory activity in October fell short of expectations.

Industrial production rose 4.9 percent year-on-year, lower than a Bloomberg forecast of 5.5 percent and the slowest increase since August last year.

"A key drag came from weaker external demand -- export values and industrial sales for export both weakened significantly," Zichun Huang of Capital Economics said in a note about Friday's data.

"We expect the economy to remain weak over the coming quarter," she wrote, adding that Beijing's recent trade truce with Washington "is unlikely to provide much relief".

China's real estate sector has been mired in a debt crisis since 2020, having enjoyed a decades-long construction boom powered by rapid urbanisation and rising living standards.

Friday data showed home values -- a key store of wealth for Chinese households -- continued to decline.

Prices for new residential properties fell year-on-year in October in 61 out of 70 major cities surveyed by the NBS.

"The housing sector still clouds the overall outlook," wrote Sheana Yue, Senior Economist at Oxford Economics.

There is "limited policymaker appetite for new housing stimulus despite fading property momentum" she said, adding that "a nationwide turnaround remains distant".

In another worrying sign for policymakers, fixed-asset investment in the January-October period was down 1.7 percent year-on-year.

The indicator slipped into negative territory in September, falling 0.5 percent year-on-year.

Asian markets sink on concerns over tech rally, Fed rates
Hong Kong (AFP) Nov 14, 2025 - Asian markets sank Friday, tracking a selloff on Wall Street as worries over next month's Federal Reserve interest rate decision and persistent speculation about a tech bubble dampened sentiment.

With the US shutdown saga now out the way, focus returned to the central bank's policy meeting next month, when officials will decide whether or not to lower borrowing costs again.

For much of the year, equities have been boosted by optimism that rates would come down, despite persistent inflation, and the Fed has delivered at its past two gatherings.

But comments from bank boss Jerome Powell last month that a December repeat was not "a foregone conclusion" sowed the seeds of doubt, while several other decision-makers have made similar noises.

The latest came this week, with three regional presidents voicing concerns about moving while inflation remained stubbornly high.

St. Louis head Alberto Musalem urged "caution", adding that "there's limited room for further easing without monetary policy becoming overly accommodative".

His Minneapolis counterpart Neel Kashkari, who called for a pause in October, pointed to "underlying resilience in economic activity, more than I had expected".

And Cleveland's Beth Hammack told the Pittsburgh Economic Club: "On balance, I think we need to remain somewhat restrictive to continue putting pressure to bring inflation down toward our target."

She called current rates "barely restrictive, if at all" and that "we need to keep rates around these levels".

The comments come as investors await the release of economic data that had been held up by the record shutdown, with jobs and inflation the main focus, even though some are expected to be incomplete.

"As we await this schedule, we've seen some recalibration of expectations around whether the Fed cuts by 25 basis points on 10 December," wrote Pepperstone's Chris Weston.

He added that markets saw a 52 percent chance of a cut, down from 60 percent the day before.

The dimmer outlook for rates compounded worries that the tech sector may be overpriced after an AI-fuelled surge this year that has sent markets to records.

There is growing talk that the mind-boggling amounts of cash invested in artificial intelligence may take some time to be realised as profit.

Chip titan "Nvidia's earnings (are) the key bottom-up focal point next week -- potentially prompting traders to de-risk, lock in performance and sit tight until the tape turns and risk appetite returns into year-end", said Weston.

All three main indexes on Wall Street ended well in the red, with the tech-rich Nasdaq down more than two percent, while the Dow and S&P 500 were each off 1.7 percent.

And Asia followed the lead, having enjoyed a broadly positive week.

Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney and Taipei all shed at least one percent and Seoul -- which has hit multiple records of late -- shed more than two percent.

There were also losses in Shanghai, Singapore and Wellington.

Oil rallied after the International Energy Agency flagged risks to Russian output caused by hefty sanctions imposed by Washington last month, including the country's top two producers.

The IEA said the decision could have "the most far-reaching impact yet on global oil markets".

Friday's surge of more than two percent came days after the commodity tumbled following OPEC's monthly crude market report, which forecast an oversupply in the third quarter.

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