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Climate report says 2016 on pace to be hottest year yet
by Staff Writers
Miami (AFP) Dec 19, 2016


Americans who experience hot weather more likely to believe in global warming
Miami (AFP) Dec 19, 2016 - Americans who experience hot weather are more likely to believe global warming is real, while those in colder climates are more likely to be doubters, said a US study Monday.

Researchers looked at US beliefs about climate change on a county-by-county basis, and compared them to the frequency of residents' exposure to record highs and lows, said the report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Those who experienced more record highs were more likely to believe the Earth was warming.

"Conversely, Americans who live in areas that have experienced record low temperatures, such as southern portions of Ohio and the Mississippi River basins, are more skeptical that the Earth is warming," said the report.

Many people confuse climate, which reflects long-term trends over decades, with weather, which happens over hours, days or seasons.

"One of the greatest challenges to communicating scientific findings about climate change is the cognitive disconnect between local and global events," said co-author Michael Mann, associate professor of geography at George Washington University.

"It is easy to assume that what you experience at home must be happening elsewhere."

In the United States, as many as one in four do not believe that global warming is real or that humans' fossil fuel use is contributing to climate change.

According to Gallup poll data, the US public was also split over whether 2015's record high temperatures in the modern era were caused by global warming or natural variations.

"Who do Americans trust about climate change; scientists or themselves?" said lead author Robert Kaufmann, professor in the department of geography at Boston University.

"For many Americans, the answer seems to be themselves."

A monthly global climate report by US government scientists Monday offered more evidence that 2016 is likely to be the warmest year in modern times, as sea ice at both poles hit record lows.

Climate scientists say the continued burning of fossil fuels is spewing greenhouse gasses that trap heat in the atmosphere, making the planet warm up.

In addition, a strong El Nino trend in the first half of the year warmed the equatorial Pacific Ocean and exacerbated the heating.

Taken alone, last month marked the fifth warmest November since records began in 1880, said the report by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

But the average of the first 11 months of the year remained unusually high.

"The year-to-date temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.69 Fahrenheit (0.94 Celsius) above the 20th century average of 57.2 F," said the NOAA report.

"This was the highest for January-November in the 1880-2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.13 F."

Even without the final data from December, the report said 2016 is "on pace to be record warm."

That heat has contributed to sea ice in the Arctic shrinking to its smallest extent for November since records began in 1979.

"The average Arctic sea ice extent for November 2016 was 750,000 square miles (1.9 million square kilometers) below the 1981-2010 average," according to the report which cited the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The difference is 17.7 percent below the average for that 30-year timespan.

"Sea ice growth was abnormally slow during the first and third weeks of November," it added.

At the other end of the globe, Antarctic sea ice for November was 700,000 square miles (11.1 percent) below the 1981-2010 average.

"This was the smallest Antarctic sea ice extent on record for November," said the report.

The last three years have been unusually warm, with 2015 currently holding the title as hottest in modern times.


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