The team, led by senior researcher Mi-Kyung Sung of KIST's Sustainable Environment Research Center and professor Soon-Il An of Yonsei University's Center for Irreversible Climate Change, has identified mid-latitude ocean fronts as a critical factor in these anomalies. These regions, characterized by rapid temperature changes across narrow latitudinal bands, are notably the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic and the Kuroshio Current in the Pacific.
The study points to the significant impact of these ocean fronts on the weather and climate of neighboring countries. It specifically attributes the atmospheric wave response to the excessive accumulation of heat in these ocean fronts as the primary cause of the increase in extreme cold waves.
This connection has been particularly evident since the early 2000s, with an anomalous cold trend in East Asia aligning with heat accumulation near the Gulf Stream, and North America's cold spells coinciding with intensified heat near the Kuroshio Current.
Dr. Mi-Kyung Sung of KIST emphasized the potential of this research in improving climate forecasts, stating, "Applying the effects of ocean fronts revealed in this research to global warming climate models can improve climate change forecasts for the near future." This insight is critical for long-term planning, especially in mitigating climate disasters like the 2021 Texas power outage.
The research also highlights the role of oceanic frontal regions in acting as a thermostat for winter cold waves and anomalous high temperatures. The process of heat accumulation in these regions can span years to decades, leading to a warming hiatus in continental regions, which goes against the general global warming trend. Conversely, periods of ocean frontal cooling may lead to a rapid acceleration of warming on land.
This duality is not only evident in observational data but also consistent with climate model experiments. In contrast to conventional theories that mainly focus on Arctic warming and declining sea ice, this study underscores the importance of accurately simulating ocean front variability in climate models. Such precision is crucial for improving the prediction of medium- and long-term climate change over the next decade.
Furthermore, as global warming intensifies and alters the structure of the ocean, these regional climate variations are expected to undergo significant changes. Experiments with increased greenhouse gases suggest that North America might experience shorter and fewer warming hiatus periods, while East Asia could see more frequent intersections between warming hiatus and acceleration. These divergent continental responses are driven by the differing oceanic responses of the Kuroshio Current and the Gulf Stream to global warming.
This research is a critical step forward in understanding the complex interplay between oceanic and atmospheric systems and their impact on regional climate patterns. It highlights the need for a nuanced approach to climate modeling that considers the varied and sometimes counterintuitive ways in which different parts of the Earth's system interact under the influence of global warming.
Research Report:Ocean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus
Related Links
Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST)
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation
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