In 2023 alone, human-caused warming reached 1.3 C, lower than the total warming of 1.43 C due to natural climate variability, including El Nino.
The report indicates that the remaining carbon budget, or the amount of CO2 that can be emitted before reaching 1.5 C of global warming, is about 200 gigatonnes, equating to five years of current emissions.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated in 2020 that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 C ranged from 300 to 900 gigatonnes, with a central estimate of 500. By early 2024, this had decreased to 100 to 450 gigatonnes, with a central estimate of 200.
Professor Piers Forster, Director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds, explained, "Our analysis shows that the level of global warming caused by human action has continued to increase over the past year, even though climate action has slowed the rise in greenhouse gas emissions. Global temperatures are still heading in the wrong direction and faster than ever before.
"Our analysis is designed to track the long-term trends caused by human activities. Observed temperatures are a product of this long-term trend modulated by shorter-term natural variations. Last year, when observed temperature records were broken, these natural factors were temporarily adding around 10% to the long-term warming."
The report coincides with climate experts meeting in Bonn to prepare for the COP29 climate conference in November in Baku, Azerbaijan.
The Indicators of Global Climate Change report highlights new insights into the effects of reduced sulphur emissions from global shipping. While sulphur cools the climate by reflecting sunlight and forming reflective clouds, ongoing reductions have diminished this effect. Although last year's Canadian wildfire aerosols offset this to some extent, the long-term trend shows a continued decline in cooling from aerosol emissions.
Key findings include:
- Human-induced warming has risen to 1.19 C over the past decade (2014-2023), up from 1.14 C in 2013-2022.
- Human-induced warming has been increasing at an unprecedented rate, roughly 0.26 C per decade over 2014-2023.
- High GHG emission levels, averaging 53 billion tonnes of CO2 per year, and improved air quality reducing atmospheric cooling particles contribute to this high rate of warming.
- The Earth's energy balance is affected, with ocean buoys and satellites recording unprecedented heat flows into oceans, ice caps, soils, and the atmosphere, 50% higher than the long-term average.
Professor Forster added, "Fossil fuel emissions are around 70% of all GHG emissions and clearly the main driver of climate change, but other sources of pollution from cement production, farming and deforestation and cuts to the level of sulphur emissions are also contributing to warming.
"Rapidly reducing emissions of greenhouse gases towards net zero will limit the level of global warming we ultimately experience. At the same time, we need to build more resilient societies. The devastation wrought by wildfires, drought, flooding and heat waves the world saw in 2023 must not become the new normal."
The report aims to inform new Nationally Determined Contributions, the improved climate plans that every country has pledged to submit to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by 2025 to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts.
Research Studies and DatasetsIndicators of Global Climate Change
Related Links
Priestley Centre for Climate Futures
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation
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