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'No to the old path': Taiwan's voters move on from China conflict
'No to the old path': Taiwan's voters move on from China conflict
By Sean Chang and Xinqi Su
Taipei (AFP) Jan 14, 2024
A day after defying Beijing's threats by electing a new president that China regards as a dangerous separatist, Taiwanese voters brushed off their sabre-rattling neighbour across the narrow strait.

Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won comfortably in Saturday's election -- despite China repeatedly warning the Taiwanese that electing him would put the island on an "evil path" to war.

Communist China, which claims self-ruled Taiwan as its own territory, strongly opposes Lai and the DPP, seeing them as too favourable to independence -- a red line for Beijing.

China has never ruled out using force to take Taiwan, and Beijing's threats have loomed over the election campaign.

Retiree Cindy Huang told AFP that Lai's victory over Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) -- seen as more favourable to Beijing -- showed that Taiwan wanted to move on from decades of anxiety about China.

"Taiwan has come out, we don't want to go back to the old path," the 58-year-old told AFP.

"We don't want to be tied to China anymore."

- Dire straits -

Beijing insists Taiwan is part of China in the same way as Macau and Hong Kong are, but the experience of the former British-ruled banking hub has alarmed Taiwanese voters.

After years of allowing Hong Kong limited freedoms under the "one country, two systems" doctrine, Beijing has cracked down hard on dissent with a national security law implemented after city-wide protests for greater liberty.

"That protest (in Hong Kong) had a profound impact on young people in Taiwan, and made us want Taiwan to be recognised separately and independently in the world," university clerk Hana told AFP.

Her friend Mike, a construction worker, said the current set-up, in which Taiwan is independent in practice -- with its own government, flag, military and economy -- was working.

"I just want to maintain the status quo, meaning not getting any worse," he said, dismissing the idea of China seizing the island as empty threats.

"China has been chanting those strong words for 70 years but they have not invaded us."

Lai and the DPP have toned down past rhetoric pushing for full independence, arguing that since Taiwan is essentially sovereign, there is no need for a formal declaration that would enrage Beijing.

A 40-year-old factory worker surnamed Wang, enjoying the warm Taipei sunshine with her two chinchillas, said she was happy with the arrangement.

"Taiwan is a de facto independent country so it doesn't really matter whether the world will recognise that," Wang said.

"I think the election results show that Taiwanese people want to maintain the status quo and preserve our own way of life."

Saturday's election saw a shift in the island's political dynamics as the upstart populist Taiwan People's Party (TPP) won more than 25 percent of the vote, disrupting the traditional DPP-KMT duopoly.

TPP and its charismatic presidential candidate Ko Wen-je promised a "reasonable and pragmatic" option for voters weary of the two main parties.

While Ko finished in third place, for some younger Taiwanese his party represents a refreshing alternative to the two establishment outfits.

- Status quo -

University student Stephanie Chen missed the election as she is still a few days from her 20th birthday -- the legal voting age in Taiwan.

For her, despite China's dire warnings across the Taiwan Strait, war is a distant prospect -- unimaginable almost -- and TPP offered inspiring new ideas.

Chen said she would have voted for TPP if she could "because Ko's initiatives seem more creative and less conservative".

"I prioritise those who can do better in managing public finance and the government," she said.

Alan Li, a civil engineer who voted for TPP, said that for him too, domestic rather than diplomatic policies were his priority.

The 30-year-old said he wanted a change in government as the rise in property prices in the past few years had become intolerable for young people like him.

His partner, Jane Wu, also 30, echoed other voters' calls to maintain the status quo with China, hoping Lai would not push too hard for independence.

"Taiwan and China are de facto two countries and have been so for a very long time. An official recognition in law is not really necessary," said Wu, who works in manufacturing.

Taiwan tells China to 'face reality' after election
Taipei (AFP) Jan 14, 2024 - Taiwan told China to "face reality" on Sunday after voters chose pro-sovereignty candidate Lai Ching-te as president, as Beijing issued a fresh warning that any new independence moves for the island would be "harshly punished".

Voters spurned Beijing's repeated calls not to vote for Lai, delivering a comfortable victory for a man China's ruling Communist Party sees as a dangerous separatist.

Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its territory and has never renounced force to bring it under its control, insisted that the vote did not change the fact the island was part of China.

Lai, of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), had vowed to defend the island from China's "intimidation" and on Sunday Taipei's foreign ministry told Beijing to accept the result.

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls on the Beijing authorities to respect the election results, face reality and give up suppressing Taiwan in order for positive cross-strait interactions to return to the right track," it said in a statement.

China's foreign minister Wang Yi said the vote did not change Taiwan's status and warned against steps towards formal independence for the island, which Lai had said he opposed.

"If anyone on the island of Taiwan thinks of going for independence, they will be... trying to split China, and will certainly be harshly punished by both history and the law," Wang said at a press conference in Cairo.

"Taiwan has never been a country. It wasn't in the past, and it certainly won't be in the future," he said.

An unofficial US delegation sent by President Joe Biden's administration will arrive in Taipei on Sunday, a move sure to draw condemnation from Beijing.

The delegation, including a former US national security adviser and a former deputy secretary of state, will meet "a range of leading political figures" on Monday, the island's de facto US embassy said in a statement.

Taiwan's foreign ministry, which welcomed the visit, said the delegation would be meeting "high-level officials" including President Tsai Ing-wen and will stay until Tuesday.

- 'External forces' -

After a campaign marked by diplomatic pressure from Beijing and near-daily incursions by Chinese fighter jets, Lai beat his nearest rival Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) on Saturday by more than 900,000 votes.

In his victory speech, 64-year-old Lai congratulated voters for refusing to be swayed by "external forces" trying to influence the election.

He said he wanted to cooperate with China -- Taiwan's biggest trade partner -- and maintain peace and stability, but pledged not to be cowed by Chinese belligerence.

"We are determined to safeguard Taiwan from continuing threats and intimidation from China," he told supporters.

Four Chinese naval vessels were seen in waters around the island on polling day, according to Taiwan's defence ministry, and one high-altitude balloon passed over.

China warned Taiwan's voters in the days leading up to the election to make the "correct choice", saying that Lai would take the island closer to war.

Lai will take power on May 20 alongside his vice-presidential pick Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan's former representative to the United States.

Both were the targets of disinformation efforts during the campaign that experts linked to China.

The turnout of 72 percent showed an enthusiastic electorate and voter Tsai Jin-hui said on Sunday that Beijing should mind its own business.

"What China thinks is a matter for China. We are electing the president of our own country," the 62-year-old taxi driver told AFP.

- Continuity -

World powers are keen to see as much stability as possible between China and Taiwan, not least because of the vital role the island plays in the global economy.

The Taiwan Strait is one of the world's most important maritime trade arteries and the island itself is a major tech manufacturer, particularly of vital semiconductors -- the chips used in everything from smartphones to missile systems.

Lai and the DPP have toned down past calls for independence, saying there is no need for a formal declaration since Taiwan is effectively independent already, defending the island's sovereignty.

But China still sees them as skirting too close to the "I-word" -- a red line for the communist giant.

Beijing cut off official contact with current President Tsai of the DPP in 2016 and is not expected to budge with Lai, setting the stage for four more years of frosty cross-strait relations.

"The ruling party's unprecedented third consecutive presidential victory will disappoint China, but it is unlikely to spur any near-term change in Beijing's reunification strategy," Bonnie Glaser, a Taiwan-China affairs expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, wrote in an analysis piece.

The question in the coming days will be whether China decides on merely a diplomatic and rhetorical response to the election -- or steps up with a big show of force.

A visit to Taiwan by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2022 triggered China's biggest-ever military exercises around the island, involving warships, missiles and fighter jets.

Further ahead, Lai's presidency could be affected by the US election in November, with the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House meaning the island's biggest ally could take a different stance.

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