Ahead of next month's COP30 climate summit in Brazil, Guterres said going beyond 1.5C would result in "devastating" yet predictable impacts.
"One thing is already clear: we will not be able to contain the global warming below 1.5 degrees in the next few years," Guterres said at the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) weather and climate agency in Geneva.
"Overshooting is now inevitable. Which means that we're going to have a period, bigger or smaller, with higher or lower intensity, above 1.5 degrees in the years to come."
However, if leaders start taking the problem seriously by driving towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions, "the 1.5 still remains -- according to all the scientists I met -- possible before the end of the century".
The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels -- and 1.5C if possible.
Guterres said the latest national pledges to slash carbon emissions come nowhere near meeting the 1.5C target.
The United Nations is in the process of appraising these plans, which put forward a 2035 carbon-cutting target and details for getting there.
Many countries have missed repeated deadlines this year to put forward their commitments, and an official report of those already received is expected within days.
Guterres said pledges covering 70 percent of global emissions suggested a cut in carbon pollution by some 10 percent by 2035.
But the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said emissions must fall 60 percent by 2035, from 2019 levels, for a good chance of limiting warming to 1.5C with no or limited overshoot.
Scientists emphasise that each fraction of a degree of temperature increase worsens the risks of disasters such as heat waves, or the destruction of marine life.
Containing warming to 1.5C rather than 2C would significantly limit its most catastrophic consequences, according to the IPCC, which collects the work of scientists worldwide.
- Climate disinformation fightback -
Ahead of the COP30 summit next month in Brazil, Guterres also insisted on the need to "fight mis- and disinformation, online harassment, and greenwashing".
"Scientists and researchers should never fear telling the truth."
His remarks will be seen in some quarters as a riposte to Trump's speech at the United Nations in New York, in which the Republican president championed fossil fuels and derided green technologies.
"Climate change -- it's the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world, in my opinion," said Trump.
The "carbon footprint is a hoax made up by people with evil intentions", he said.
Trump praised his administration's war on solar and wind power, bolstered by a new law that ends clean energy tax credits.
"We're getting rid of the falsely named renewables, by the way: they're a joke, they don't work, they're too expensive," he added.
- Planet on the 'brink' -
But Guterres insisted that in 2024, "almost all new power capacity came from renewables", and investment was surging.
"Renewables are the cheapest, fastest and smartest source of new power. They represent the only credible path to end the relentless destruction of our climate," he insisted.
The WMO is marking its 75 anniversary this year, and is leading the charge for all countries to be covered by extreme weather early warning systems by 2027.
"Global warming is pushing our planet to the brink," said Guterres.
"Every one of the last 10 years has been the hottest in history. Ocean heat is breaking records while decimating ecosystems. And no country is safe from fires, floods, storms and heatwaves."
Before COP30, the UN secretary-general urged countries to submit "bold" climate plans that align with the 1.5C goal.
"Much greater ambition is required," he said.
Scrapped by Trump, revived US climate-disaster database reveals record losses
Washington (AFP) Oct 22, 2025 -
A flagship US climate-disaster database killed by President Donald Trump's administration has been brought back to life by its former lead scientist -- revealing that extreme weather inflicted a record $101 billion in damages in just the first half of 2025.
The Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters tracker, long maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), chronicled major US catastrophes from 1980 to 2024 before it was abruptly shut down in May amid sweeping budget cuts that critics decried as an ideologically driven attack on science.
"This dataset was simply too important to stop being updated, and the demand for its revival came from every sector of society," Adam Smith, an applied climatologist who helmed the database for 15 years before resigning in May, told AFP.
Among those calling for its return were groups such as the American Academy of Actuaries, who argued the list was a vital tool for tracking the rising costs of climate-fueled disasters, from wildfires to floods, that threaten homeowners, insurers, and mortgage markets.
Congressional Democrats have also sought to restore the program within NOAA, introducing a bill last month that has yet to advance.
Now based at the nonprofit Climate Central, Smith said he worked with an interdisciplinary team of experts in meteorology, economics, risk management, communication, and web design over recent months to recreate the dataset using the same public and private data sources and methodologies.
The new findings, he said, show that "the year started out with a bang": the Los Angeles wildfires were likely the costliest in history, with insured losses reaching an estimated $60 billion.
That was followed by a barrage of spring storms across the central and southern United States, including several destructive tornadoes.
Altogether, 14 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters between January and June caused $101.4 billion in inflation-adjusted damages -- though 2025 as a whole may fall short of a record, thanks to a milder-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season.
Smith said his decision to leave NOAA stemmed from his realization that "the current environment to do science, across the board, is becoming more difficult, and that's likely an understatement."
But he added he was happy to give the dataset a new home so it can remain a "public good" and continue to publish updates at regular intervals.
Looking ahead, the team plans to broaden the scope of the tracker to include events causing at least $100 million in losses -- to capture the smaller and mid-sized disasters that still have "life-changing impacts to lives and livelihoods."
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