"I will talk about it when the time is right." It is not too easy to decipher the undecipherable. What did the Russian leader mean?

First of all, he made it clear that he had not handpicked his successor yet. Given the nature of the Russian public opinion today, many people will vote for the politician named by the president, who enjoys great popularity with voters. The latest poll by the Levada Center, a Moscow-based pollster, showed that 48 percent are ready to follow the president, and 45 percent of them are certain that Putin will name his successor on his own.

There is still time. The country has begun to prepare for the parliamentary elections in the autumn 2007, and there is still plenty of time before the start of the presidential campaign.

A potential successor, who has to hold a high position, or he will not be noticed by electronic media and, consequently, the voters, needs delicate handling: his charisma can burn out too early in a job that bears a great deal of responsibility and can lead to failures and mistakes. It seems, therefore, that he has a new appointment in store for him.

Secondly, the president hinted that he was willing to consider public opinion when making his choice. Most probably, this is what he meant by saying that voters have to decide on "the strongest candidate." Despite the wide choice ranging from speakers of the parliament's two chambers, Boris Gryzlov and Sergei Mironov, who represent two different pro-Kremlin parties United Russia and Fair Russia, to Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, the only official who leads in approval ratings is Dmitry Medvedev, first deputy prime minister in charge of national projects.

If Putin is excluded from the list of presidential candidates, 11 percent of Russians are ready to vote for Medvedev, according to Levada's poll. He is one percentage point ahead of Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov and two points ahead of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, who is seen as the main rival of "civilian" and "liberal" Medvedev, is supported by 8 percent.

Although Medvedev is becoming an absolute leader, everyone remembers Putin's unexpected moves in appointing officials: in 2004, for example, he nominated Mikhail Fradkov, who was little known at the time, as the prime minister. So the intrigue in the exciting Russian political game is likely to continue.

Andrei Kolesnikov is a political commentator at RIA Novosti. This article was reprinted with permission from the news agency.

United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interest of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.

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