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Stressed out: how to measure dangerous heat
Stressed out: how to measure dangerous heat
By Nick Perry
Paris (AFP) Aug 11, 2025

As Europe and North America endure or brace for yet another wave of sweltering heat and out-of-control wildfires this summer, experts are sounding the alarm over heat stress.

The condition kills more people than hurricanes, floods or any other climate-related extreme, but what is heat stress exactly, and how is it measured?

- 'Silent killer' -

Heat stress occurs when the body's natural cooling systems are overwhelmed, causing symptoms ranging from dizziness and headaches to organ failure and death.

It is brought on by prolonged exposure to heat and other environmental factors that work together to undermine the body's internal thermostat and its ability to regulate temperature.

"Heat is a silent killer, because symptoms are not so easily evident. And when these underlying conditions are present, the consequences can be very bad, and even catastrophic," said Alejandro Saez Reale of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Infants, the elderly, people with health problems and outdoor workers are particularly vulnerable. City dwellers surrounded by concrete, brick and other heat-absorbing surfaces also face an elevated risk.

The WMO estimates that heat kills around half a million people a year but says that the true toll is not known, and could be 30 times higher than is currently recorded.

As climate change makes heatwaves longer, stronger and more frequent, people across the planet will be increasingly exposed to conditions that test the limits of human endurance.

- More than a maximum -

Temperature might be the most widely used and easily understood weather reading, but headline-catching "maximum highs" do not fully tell how heat might affect the human body.

For example, 35 degrees Celsius (95 Fahrenheit) feels very different in the dry heat of the desert compared to the humid climes of a jungle.

To build a more complete picture, scientists consider a host of factors including temperature but also humidity, wind speed, clothing, direct sunshine, and even the amounts of concrete or greenery in the area.

All these play a big role in how the body perceives and, most importantly, responds to extreme heat.

There are many ways to measure heat stress, some of which are decades old, but all try to boil down different environmental readings into a single number or graph.

- 'Feels like' -

One of the oldest methods is known as wet-bulb temperature, a useful gauge in situations where the thermometer reading may not seem too extreme but when combined with humidity becomes unbearable, even lethal.

Just six hours exposed to 35 degrees Celsius with 100 percent humidity is enough to kill a healthy person, scientists said in 2023.

Above this limit, sweat cannot evaporate off the skin, and the body overheats and expires.

Copernicus, the EU's climate monitor, uses the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), which considers temperature and humidity but also wind, sunshine and radiated heat to rank heat stress levels from moderate to extreme.

Extreme heat stress, as judged by this index, is a "feels like" temperature of 46 Celsius and above, at which point it is necessary to take action to avoid health risks.

The Heat Index, used by the US National Weather Service, offers an "apparent temperature" based on heat and humidity in the shade, and a colour-coded graph denoting the likelihood of illness from exposure.

Canada has developed the Humidex rating, which combines heat and humidity into one number to reflect the "perceived temperature" and presents the associated risk in a four-step "guide to summer comfort" chart.

- Limitations -

Other examples of "thermal stress" indices include the Tropical Summer Index, Predicted Heat Strain and the mean radiant temperature.

They are not without limitations, and heatwave expert John Nairn said that some measures worked better in some climates than others.

"It's not the same all around the world, about the way you approach it," Nairn told AFP.

The UTCI, for example, is excellent at reading heat stress in Germany, where it was first developed, but "a very poor measure" in global south countries, he said.

"It saturates and over-measures far too much. And it would over-alert for those communities who are chronically exposed to heat," said Nairn, who has advised governments and the WMO on heatwave policy.

These locations might receive better heat stress readings using wet-bulb temperature, he said.

These indices also do not consider the impact of heat beyond health, he said, even though a heatwave could strand trains or overload air-conditioners.

"If your heat challenge is such that it gets to a level where your infrastructure is not going to operate, and it starts failing, that will have a return on humans no longer being protected," Nairn said.

Five key things about heatwaves in Europe
Paris (AFP) Aug 13, 2025 - Scorching temperatures, such as those recorded in southern Europe, illustrate the intensifying heatwaves in Europe, which scientists consider a direct result of climate change.

Here are five things to know about the heatwaves in Europe, which the EU climate monitor Copernicus says is the "fastest-warming continent on Earth".

- 2003: shockwave -

The intense heatwave that struck Western Europe during the first half of August 2003 was a massive shock for the region.

In the years that followed, several countries put in place alert systems for heatwaves, such as the "heatwave plan" introduced in France.

The exceptional temperatures experienced in 2003 in France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal led to tens of thousands of deaths, with scientific studies estimating more than 70,000 deaths across 16 countries.

The 2003 episode is not the only one to have caused a high number of deaths.

A heatwave that struck Russia in 2010 resulted in 56,000 "excess deaths," according to the Russian statistics agency Rosstat.

Some 60,000 deaths were also attributed to the summer heat in 2022 across 35 European countries, according to a study by Inserm/ISGlobal.

- Across the continent -

Although it was essentially the west and south of Europe that was affected by the 2003 heatwave, the whole European continent has been affected by heatwaves since the start of this century.

In 2010, Eastern Europe suffered most, particularly Russia. This exceptionally long 45-day episode was marked by a record temperature of 37.2 degrees Celsius in July in Moscow.

In June and July 2019, it was mostly the northern half of Europe that endured the heat, with record temperatures recorded in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Britain.

In 2021, it was southern Europe again that sweltered with what the Greek government described as the worst heatwave since 1987 for the country and an all-time temperature record in August for Spain.

Two years later in June, abnormal heat hit northern Europe. Then in July and August the south sweltered, with temperatures hitting 38 to 46 degrees, according to Copernicus.

- Earlier and later in season -

Geographically more extensive, European heatwaves are also stretching out on the calendar.

In 2019 and again in 2022, the first heatwave to hit Europe arrived in mid-June, with, for example, heat records broken in 2022 for the month of June in Germany and Austria.

The following year, the European heatwave extended until September, exacerbating drought conditions in southern Europe and complicating the organisation of the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France.

- More often -

Studies and scientific organisations agree heatwave episodes in Europe have become more frequent.

Climate change is a significant factor contributing to the increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves, according to Copernicus.

An academic study published in 2025 in the journal Weather and Climate Extremes on heatwaves from 1921 to 2021 concluded there had been a "significant upward trend in heat wave occurrences across most European regions, with a notable surge in the last three decades."

Meteo France notes that, of the 50 heatwaves recorded nationwide since 1947, 33 have occurred since 2000.

- Absolute temperature records -

The heatwaves in Europe this century have been accompanied by local record-breaking temperatures, including the absolute peak for Europe reached on August 11, 2021, in Syracuse, Italy with 48.8 degrees, a record certified by the World Meteorological Organization.

Several other absolute records have been registered for various countries on the continent in recent years. Some examples:

COUNTRYTEMPERATURE (in Celsius)DATE

France46June 2019

Portugal47.3August 2003

Spain47.4August 2021

Germany41.2July 2019

Britain40.3July 2022

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