Of the 48 suicide attacks recorded so far this year -- more than double the number last year -- 84 percent of the casualties have been civilians. Strikes have also become increasingly bold; two days after a provincial governor and two aides were killed earlier this month, a car bomber detonated near a U.S. military convoy in the heart of Kabul, taking 16 lives.

The first Afghan-based organization devoted to security and terrorism analysis, the Center for Conflict and Peace Studies, was founded this year to bring a grounded perspective to issues threatening Afghanistan's stability. Director Hamid Karzai, the namesake and nephew of the Afghan president, and an authority on terror and capacity building, spoke with United Press International's Jason Motlagh about the new and improved Taliban, Western misconceptions of the conflict, and the linchpin that is cultural understanding.

UPI: Given your exposure to recent developments, what do find to be the biggest misconception in the West about the Taliban and the threat they pose?

KARZAI: A lot of experts have criticized me for saying the Taliban have become a part of the global jihad, arguing they are a spent force, without ideology, motivation or resources. The more I came back to Afghanistan to do research, the more I was led to believe that conditions had completely changed. The Taliban that we knew before was not the same Taliban -- tactically, ideologically and strategically. The perception has now come to many that their understanding was not correct. And so they have to recalibrate their strategy, resources and manpower to deal with the threat. We have a military battle that we're fighting. But at the same time we need to do so in a holistic manner with enough resources going towards development.

Q. What is your take on the Provincial Reconstruction Teams tasked with ensuring security and development across the country?

A. There has been a contradiction among some experts that Provincial Reconstruction Teams should not be deployed because it jeopardizes the work of various NGOs. However, there are a lot of PRTs that have done good work, and the reason they are able to is because of the amount of resources and personnel. There are other PRTs that stay within their compounds and don't come out.

Culture can also be a huge barrier. Not to criticize militaries, but their training is done in conventional ways and a lot of issues they are completely unaware of because they've never been taught. As a result, they end up making mistakes. One example was a group that wanted to dig up some graves on the basis of intelligence that their might be weapons and ammunition stashed beneath. And they wanted to do it in the daytime. The reality is that if you do that in Afghanistan, no matter what kind of good will you have, people will turn against you. This is but one example. What's needed is better training, better understanding that this is not just a military endeavor. Unfortunately, changing military doctrine will take time, but it's necessary to be successful here.

Q. With all of the comparisons to Iraq, how much is the Taliban taking a page out of that insurgency's playbook?

A. They have clearly adopted tactics. Groups learn from one another, adapt one another's tactics. Look at the LTTE rebels in Sri Lanka or Hezbollah in Lebanon. The same can be said about the Taliban. What you definitely see is tactics brought from Iraq, or at least used in IraQ. Specifically, you have very powerful (Improvised Explosive Devices), tactics of beheading people, suicide attacks, and intimidation by various means ... by sending letters to houses at night with death threats or burning schools. Right now there are 200,000 children who can not go to school because they have been destroyed or due to intimidation. The sad reality is that these tactics are working, putting people out of work and placing them hostage to fear.

Q. Attacks have been documented in all but two provinces in the country. How and where is violence spreading most seriously at this point?

A. The south and to a lesser degree the east are the worst off. The first province in terms of attacks is Kandahar, where almost half of the suicide bombings this year have occurred. And you have sporadic attacks in other parts. This year we have more than the entire history of suicide attacks in Afghanistan.

We conduct extensive monitoring and there are provinces popping up which were not affiliated with violence, places long believed to be safe. So the reason most people say there is an emphasis on the south is because (insurgents) have a sanctuary; when they attack and something happens, they have a place to go back to. If the conditions become such where they develop cells within Afghanistan they don't have to retreat. The Western part of the country is also coming onto the radar after suicide and other attacks, you start to see influence coming from the south.

Q. The technologies being used to sow terror are said to be far more advanced than anything Afghanistan has seen before. Where are they coming from?

A. There is wide speculation. Some say they are getting a lot of Chinese weapons that may be financed by various sources. Other technology and know-how may be coming from across the border in Iraq.

Q. After three deadly suicide attacks in Kabul in recent weeks, is the capital in danger?

A. I don't see Kabul as being a place subject to a serious threat. Yes, there are criminal gangs and violent groups. But contrary to some reports, I don't think there are (Taliban) cells here. Some experts insist it has become very dangerous. There are isolated incidents here and there and the number of suicide attacks is increasing, but it still pales when compared to other places. You have to look at the International Security Assistance Force that is based here, the Afghan police and intelligence. They are in many ways doing a lot of work, capturing suspects. The morale of people in general is still very good.

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