Targeted northern tree planting could deliver major carbon drawdown for Canada

by Clarence Oxford
Los Angeles CA (SPX) Feb 06, 2026
A new study shows that Canada could remove at least five times its current annual carbon emissions by strategically planting trees along the northern edge of the country's boreal forest. Researchers focused on filling in gaps and reforesting historically forested land rather than converting long-term open areas.

The team from the University of Waterloo used an artificial intelligence driven modelling framework to estimate carbon removal under realistic northern conditions. They integrated satellite observations, projected fire probabilities, expected loss of vegetation and regional climate variables to build a spatially detailed picture of where trees can grow and how much carbon they could store.

The modelling indicated that planting about 6.4 million hectares of trees along the boreal fringe could remove roughly 3.9 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide by 2100. When the analysis was scaled up to include the most suitable areas across the broader region, the estimated carbon removal potential rose to around 19 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide over the same period.

Canada has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and to meeting its pledges under the Paris Climate Agreement. The authors argue that well designed afforestation and reforestation in the northern taiga and boreal transition zone can make a meaningful contribution to these national climate goals when combined with deep emissions cuts in other sectors.

Lead author Kevin Dsouza, a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Waterloo, said the magnitude of the potential carbon drawdown was notable even under cautious assumptions. "We were surprised by how large the carbon-removal potential remained even with using conservative assumptions about available land and frequent fires, and by how strongly fire frequency and early seedling mortality can make or break the benefits of tree planting," Dsouza said.

Dsouza also highlighted the importance of focusing on lands that supported forests in the past. "It was also striking that replanting on historically forested land was much more effective than planting on long-term non-forested areas, which suggests that filling in the gaps in the northern forest is often smarter than converting open lands," he said.

Large scale tree planting has long been promoted as a climate solution for Canada, but until now estimates for the northern boreal zone often ignored key real world constraints. Previous assessments rarely combined fire dynamics, climate impacts on tree growth and detailed information on where trees can survive, making it difficult for policymakers to evaluate the true long term benefits.

The new work underscores that planting design and management decisions are as important as the number of seedlings put in the ground. "We recognize that Canada's 2 Billion Trees program faced major implementation challenges, and that experience shows why successful climate-mitigation planting is about more than planting more trees, but about selecting the right sites, the right species mixes, and the right management approach to maximize long-term carbon and ecological outcomes," Dsouza said.

According to the researchers, afforestation projects that are targeted, ecologically appropriate and backed by long term stewardship are most likely to deliver durable climate benefits. This includes taking into account the risk of more frequent and intense wildfires, as well as ensuring that young trees survive their most vulnerable early years.

The study also points to important tradeoffs and additional factors that future work needs to address. The team plans to examine how tree planting in northern landscapes might affect permafrost stability and surface reflectivity, particularly the amount of bright snow that reflects sunlight back to space during winter and spring.

Any large scale planting strategy will have to navigate biodiversity considerations, Indigenous priorities and existing local land uses across Canada's northern regions. The authors stress that climate focused tree planting should be designed in partnership with communities and aligned with broader ecological and social objectives rather than pursued as a stand alone technical fix.

Research Report:Substantial carbon removal capacity of Taiga reforestation and afforestation at Canada's boreal edge