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DEMOCRACY
Virginia political quake may doom Obama immigration hopes
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) June 11, 2014


Cantor leaving US House leadership after shock defeat
Washington (AFP) June 11, 2014 - Eric Cantor, the Republican star unexpectedly bounced from the US Congress by a political novice, said Wednesday he will step down as House majority leader.

"While I intend to serve out my term as a member of Congress from the 7th District of Virginia, effective July 31st I will be stepping down as majority leader," Cantor told reporters a day after his shock primary loss to economics professor Dave Brat.

The move sets off a scramble for the number two post in the House Republican leadership, just as lawmakers crank up their campaigns ahead of November's mid-term congressional elections.

Shortly before addressing reporters, Cantor broke his news to the Republican caucus in a closed-door conference in the US Capitol basement, where lawmakers said House Speaker John Boehner wept as he praised his outgoing deputy.

An internal election to fill the vacuum will take place June 19, said Congressman Tim Huelskamp, who wants to see a conservative win the post.

Cantor was already seen as a conservative leader, but the Tea Party-fueled far-right wing of the caucus is aiming to bring in new blood that could help draw leadership even more to the right.

The outgoing chieftain, the only Jewish Republican in Congress, said Washington was too divided and called for his party to unite, particularly in opposition to President Barack Obama's controversial health care law.

"Truly, what divides Republicans pales in comparison to what divides us as conservatives from the left and their Democratic Party," Cantor said.

Lawmakers have floated three main names as potential Cantor replacements: Kevin McCarthy, who is in line as the chamber's number three Republican, Rules Committee chairman Pete Sessions and Jeb Hensarling, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.

"I would say that it's wide open," House Republican Phil Gingrey told AFP.

Cantor said he would back McCarthy if he chose to run for the job.

Cantor lost his Virginia district seat to Brat, who was backed by the anti-tax, small government Tea Party movement.

- Cantor will be 'gravely missed' -

Experts and Cantor's colleagues said the majority leader failed to address constituent issues, focusing more on national party priorities and fundraising for other candidates.

Cantor hinted that his attention to leadership concerns may have been a factor.

"There's a balance between holding a leadership position and serving constituents at home," he said.

"But never was there a day did I not put the constituents of the 7th district of Virginia first, and I will continue to do so."

Cantor's loss was widely considered one of the biggest upsets in modern US congressional history.

"I think he's going to be gravely missed," Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart, one of a group of lawmakers trying to hammer out immigration reform legislation, told reporters.

"Anybody who can claim that they can know how this is going to affect any major issue is not understanding what a big tsunami this is."

A grassroots revolution in Virginia did not just topple Republican Party chieftain Eric Cantor.

Tuesday's political earthquake also likely doomed US President Barack Obama's hopes of a sole significant second term domestic legislative triumph -- immigration reform.

The stunning primary defeat of Cantor, the House Republican Majority leader, by a hero of the radical conservative Tea Party faction ranked as one of the biggest electoral upsets in decades.

A shocked Washington was only beginning to game out the political implications Wednesday. Cantor reportedly plans to step down as majority leader by the end of July.

University professor Dave Brat successfully branded Cantor a supporter of "amnesty" for illegal immigrants - despite the fact he only favored lukewarm reform -- energizing the tiny but motivated conservative primary electorate in Virginia's 7th district.

Any wavering Republican toying with a vote to offer a path to citizenship to 12 million illegal immigrants will surely now balk at sticking their neck out amid perceptions one of Washington's top power brokers was felled by the issue.

"This shows there is no chance of getting anything done legislatively on the subject through the summer, after which it would be difficult to get anything done with presidential speculation beginning," said Cesar Vargas of the Dream Action Coalition, a pro-reform group.

Brookings Institution senior fellow Audrey Singer agreed.

"There was very slim hope to begin with, and this might be the nail in the coffin," Singer said.

Immigration does not tell the whole story of Cantor's demise -- but the perception that it did him in may be enough.

Brat told MSNBC Cantor had lost touch with his district.

"I was door knocking and know what is on the mind of the folks," Brat said.

One damning report testifying to Cantor's distance from his grass roots suggested his campaign spent more in steakhouses than Brat's campaign spent in total.

Some immigration reform advocates also suggested that Cantor's problem was that he did not lead on the issue and so was consumed by it.

They cited a Public Policy Poll showing 58 percent of Republicans in Cantor's district wanted immigration reform -- suggesting that a low turnout among more moderate partisans could have been decisive.

Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer said the Cantor strategy of playing both sides of the issue "is a path to defeat."

Fretful Republicans are however unlikely to take political advice from a liberal Democrat.

- Busted hopes -

Busted hopes of reform are not just bad news for Obama, who needs to get a bill, that has passed the Senate, through the Republican House to flesh out a thin second term.

In recent presidential elections, Republicans have slumped among Hispanic voters --- for whom immigration reform is a cause celebre.

Many political professionals believe the party will never recapture the White House without repairing ties to the fast-growing community.

In 2012, Obama beat Republican Mitt Romney by 71 percent to 27 percent among Hispanics, who made the difference in some key swing states.

But the recent political lesson is that any Republican who touches immigration reform is burned -- Texas governor Rick Perry stumbled on the issue and saw his presidential campaign crumble in 2012.

A possible Republican presidential candidate in 2016, Senator Marco Rubio, has struggled to rebuild his fortunes after championing Senate immigration reform last year.

There was no immediate reaction from Obama himself to seeing one of his most sworn foes toppled -- though such was the distaste for Cantor in the White House, there was likely private glee.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest insisted that Cantor's demise did not mean that immigration reform was not dead in the water.

"It is the view of the White House that there is support all across the country for common sense bipartisan immigration reform," Earnest told reporters traveling with Obama to Massachusetts.

But pressure was already piling on Obama to use his own power to reshape immigration laws.

Frank Sharry, of America's Voice, a pro-immigration group, said that if Republicans declared "immigration dead .... then we will turn to a president who has the authority to take executive action."

Obama has protested to supporters angry at the high rate of deportations that he simply cannot rewrite the law.

But activists say he could dictate who is thrown out -- putting people who are not criminals at the bottom of the list.

So far, he has held off from unilateral moves, to give House Republican Speaker John Boehner a chance to navigate the narrow path through his support base for a vote on reform.

He may also fear an explosive response which could jeopardize hopes of reform in future presidencies.

Acting on immigration enforcement would likely dwarf firestorms over Obama's swap of Taliban prisoners for US soldier Bowe Bergdahl and his unilateral new rules on fossil fuel emissions -- both of which bypassed Congress.

Republican leaders -- many of whom recognize that their party risks being relegated to a regional force that can win congressional elections but not presidential votes -- were also left with a strategic headache as they eye 2016.

"If the House GOP declares immigration is dead, then so is the GOP as a national party. The growing number of Latino, Asian American and immigrant voters will make sure of it," Sharry said.

.


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