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Analysis: 'Khodorkovsky Fallout'

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Moscow, June (UPI) Jun 01, 2005
Four percent of Russians polled believe former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky was wrongfully convicted and sentenced to a nine-year prison term Tuesday for committing economic crimes. Russia's political classes are divided on this issue, and the West is decidedly skeptical of Russia's judicial system. Soon to start his prison sentence, Khodorkovsky may become an important point of reference in Russia's political life and foreign relations.

Russian public opinion is anything but divided over his conviction and sentencing, however. Speaking on the Russian radio station Mayak Wednesday, Dmitry Polikanov, the deputy director general of Russia's Public Opinion Center, said 26 percent of those polled replied the sentence given to Khodorkovsky was adequate, while 11 percent responded it was too lenient; 8 percent believed it was too tough, he said.

Polikanov added only 4 percent of Russians polled believed Khodorkovsky was blameless of any wrongdoing, though 53 percent had no clear opinion of the Khodorkovsky case, with 25 percent claiming they didn't follow the trial and 28 percent expressing no opinion.

"Popular opinion in Russia is that privatization (in the 1990s) was unfair," Polikanov said, adding, "According to opinion polls, most Russians tend to see the Yukos case as having a positive effect as the first step toward law and order, in particular, in the economy."

Russia's political elites have responded to the Khodorkovsky verdict in much the same way they perceived the legal travails of the former oligarch and co-defendant, Platon Lebedev.

Grigory Yavlinsky, head of the opposition political party Yabloko and a strong critic of Russia's privatizations of the 1990s, described the sentences as "an act of intimidation."

Taking the middle ground, Finance Minister AlexeiKudrin -- known as a Kremlin liberal -- acknowledged the negative impact on Russia's economy and business confidence as a result of the Yukos affair, adding rebuilding trust will take time. Nonetheless, Kudrin said Khodorkovsky's trial and conviction "was and is a serious lesson to everybody."

Apparently speaking for the 11 percent of Russians polled on the trial's results, Dmitry Rogozin, head of the leftist-nationalist Rodina (Motherland) party, was far from satisfied. Using his infamous populist rhetoric he said, "Why have not the other SOBs (oligarchs) been called to account?"

The Bush administration continues to express concerns, if not outright skepticism, as to the fairness of Russia's judicial system. U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said, "There were questions about due process, there were questions about how the assets of Yukos were handled, and there are questions about why he was being prosecuted." Boucher addedthe case has raised "serious questions" about the independence of Russian courts and legal due process.

Khodorkovsky's trial and conviction have stirred passions and put into sharp relief how Russians understand the present and past. It has also strained the Kremlin's relations with foreign governments.

Could Khodorkovsky languishing in prison become a new and defining political fault line within Russian politics and Russia's relations with the West?

Support and sympathy for Khodorkovsky among Russians is limited at best. However, this sentiment could be transformed. Khodorkovsky is now a convicted oligarch -- tomorrow his fate could be the reason for Russia's fractured liberal opposition to finally unite. They may collectively disagree about the personal fate of Khodorkovsky, but they now have the opportunity to promote the idea the Kremlin can single out any citizen for selective treatment.

On the other hand, Russia's nationalistic right could use Khodorkovsky as a poster child echoing Rogozin's question: "Why have not the other SOBs (oligarchs) been called to account?" The question they will be really asking is why President Vladimir Putin has not been harder on them.

While the meaning of Khodorkovsky's conviction is digested among Russians and the country's political classes, President Bush and other Western governments will no doubt be bombarded with reminders of Khodorkovsky's fate by the well-funded and organized lobby that supported him during his trial. Bush has gone to great lengths to keep lines of communication open with Putin; Khodorkovsky's new "martyr" and "prisoner of conscience" status has made Bush's approach to Russia even more difficult.

One way or another, Khodorkovsky's name is set to stay in the headlines. For better or worse, he is no longer an oligarch -- he is a convicted felon. As his status is changed, so may attitudes toward Putin.

Lastly, Putin is in a new and strange position when reflecting on the fate of Khodorkovsky. For many he has "gone too far," for others he may have "not gone far enough."

(Peter Lavelle is United Press International's Moscow correspondent.)

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Analysis: Dutch Put Axe To EU Constitution
Brussels (UPI) Jun 01, 2005
The Netherlands, one of the six founding members of the EU and traditionally one of its most solid backers, delivered a potentially fatal blow to the bloc's first constitution Wednesday when voters overwhelmingly rejected the treaty.







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