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Analysis: The Kremlin's 'Cartridge Clip'

There appears to be little doubt the prosecutor's office is not finished with Yukos' former management. The message Kolesnikov may have intended to send to other oligarchs is while prosecutors remain busy tying up Yukos' loose ends, no one should feel confident the Kremlin's "Oligarch War" has come to a close, and they should know tax payments will be monitored carefully.

Moscow (UPI) June 7, 2005
With oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky sentenced to a nine-year prison term for economic crimes last week, the Kremlin's offensive against the small group of wealthy individuals known as the oligarchs may be far from over. Its next move will signal whether the Yukos affair was a one-off offensive event or the start of a trend.

On Sunday, Deputy Prosecutor General Vladimir Kolesnikov told Russia's NTV channel other oligarchs will be charged with economic crimes.

"I can say one thing, (Khodorkovsky's) case will not be the last," he said. "We've got plenty of cases in the cartridge clip."

Reaction to the remarks ranged from believing it was nothing more than a bluff to remind big business to pay its taxes, to a warning shot that the Kremlin may start a new offensive against the oligarchs.

Kolesnikov's remarks do warrant both skepticism and concern -- he has a mixed track record when predicting the plans of the prosecutor's office. In the past, Kolesnikov has warned large companies of impending legal action with no follow through later. However, he did predict with astounding accuracy the arrest of Khodorkovsky in October 2003.

Kolesnikov would not elaborate on who is next, nor has the prosecutor's office confirmed that criminal charges would be presented to any particular individuals or companies. However, Kolesnikov did say, "Unfortunately some ran away. We were too human that time and they managed to hide."

The most likely candidate Kolesnikov may have in mind is Yukos shareholder Leonid Nevzlin, now in Israel. According to Kolesnikov, many former high-ranking managers of the all-but-destroyed oil giant have "blood" on their hands. Nevzlin, an outspoken critic of the Kremlin, denies any wrongdoing.

Kolesnikov could also have been referring to the widely expected additional charges of money laundering to be made against Khodorkovsky and his co-defendant Platon Lebedev.

Beyond former Yukos managers and core shareholders, who could be in Kolesnikov's "cartridge clip?" There are many possibilities, but none is particularly apparent.

Due to the recent political travails of the highly controversial head of Russia's utility grid and opposition politician, Anatoly Chubais' name has been mentioned. Over the weekend, President Vladimir Putin vented his anger over a power outage in Moscow that left almost 2 million residents without electricity last week. Two high-ranking officials from the city's utility company quit. While not mentioning his name, Putin questioned Chubais' professionalism to head the country utility grid, which is undergoing a very controversial restructuring.

Roman Abramovich could be the Kremlin's next target. Owner of the high-profile English soccer team Chelsea and main shareholder of the Russian oil giant Sibneft, Abramovich recently met with Putin. Over the past few weeks, rumors have been circulating that the Kremlin is interested in acquiring Sibneft. Did the two discuss the future of Sibneft? Media coverage of the meeting makes no mention of this, but it should be obvious they discussed the Kremlin's plans for Russia's oil patch.

Mikhail Fridman, involved in wide array of businesses from telecommunications to oil, has not had the best relationship with the Kremlin recently. Back tax bills and legal confrontations concerning the ownership of commercial entities have seen the two at loggerheads. Irrespective of differences, Fridman and the Kremlin have backed away from the brink to quietly iron out some of their differences.

There are other oligarchs who could be targeted, but most have all but dropped out of sight. Industrialist Oleg Deripaska has vanished from the public eye and metals tycoon Vladimir Potanin is known to accompany Putin on foreign travels to promote foreign investment in Russia.

Is Kolesnikov bluffing? With the trial and conviction of Khodorkovsky still fresh on everyone's mind, none of Russia's oligarchs and big businesses are taking his words lightly. This is very possibly the response Kolesnikov had hoped to create.

There appears to be little doubt the prosecutor's office is not finished with Yukos' former management. The message Kolesnikov may have intended to send to other oligarchs is while prosecutors remain busy tying up Yukos' loose ends, no one should feel confident the Kremlin's "Oligarch War" has come to a close, and they should know tax payments will be monitored carefully.

If this is the message Kolesnikov intended to convey, then the uneasy status quo underlining Kremlin-oligarch relations should not be expected to change soon.

However, there is an additional interpretation of Kolesnikov words. Putin's closest allies may be in a deadlock about how to move forward as the Yukos affair is closed. The issue has highlighted a split behind Kremlin walls -- those who want to reinvigorate Russian industry through state investment, and others who see the procuracy as a vehicle to depose the first generation of oligarchs to create second generation of Kremlin-friendly ones.

Bluff or no bluff, Kolesnikov's statements are a stark reminder to the oligarchs to continue toeing the Kremlin line. What remains to be seen is whether Kolesnikov actually only indirectly reminded the oligarchs of the Kremlin's watchful eyes or whether Kolesnikov served as a mouthpiece for those around Putin who have their own "cartridge clip" for the future.

Peter Lavelle is United Press International's Moscow correspondent.

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