The report, released on October 14 by The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health, outlines a plan for all nations to cut their rates of premature mortality by 50% by 2050 - a goal termed "50 by 50." The commission suggests this can be achieved through targeted investments in health, including expanding childhood vaccinations, implementing low-cost prevention measures, and treating common causes of death, while also increasing funding for new health technologies.
"Today, the case is better than ever for going for mortality reduction," said Gavin Yamey, M.D., director of the Duke University Center for Policy Impact in Global Health and the lead author of the report. "It's a prize within reach. It will have extraordinary health, welfare, and economic benefits. Reaching '50 by 50' would reduce mortality and morbidity, help grow economies and alleviate poverties."
The "Global Health 2050" report, set to be presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin, identifies 15 leading causes of premature death that countries should prioritize, such as infectious diseases like tuberculosis and non-communicable conditions like cardiovascular disease, as well as suicide and accidents. The reduction in global mortality over the past two decades has largely been due to decreases in these areas.
Despite progress, many people still lack access to essential health services that could prevent premature deaths. The report suggests that nations can make significant strides by subsidizing the cost of crucial medical supplies and treatments and increasing research funding to develop new health solutions.
If the "50 by 50" target is met worldwide, a person born in 2050 would face only a 15% chance of dying before age 70, compared to a 31% chance for someone born in 2019. Among the 37 countries on track to reach this goal are populous nations such as China, Bangladesh, and Iran.
The report asserts that even the poorest countries can adopt cost-effective strategies to lower mortality rates. It outlines policies and financing approaches that make this goal feasible across high-, middle-, and low-income countries.
"Health policy changes people's lives," said Wenhui Mao, Ph.D., a senior policy analyst at Duke University and one of the report's 50 co-authors. "Without good health policies, populations won't get the health outcome they deserve. Large disparities will continue to occur."
The report emphasizes increasing taxes on tobacco, unhealthy foods and drinks, and fossil fuels to lower illness and mortality rates while generating revenue for health systems. Among these, tobacco taxes are highlighted as the most critical measure due to their immediate health benefits for the world's poorest, who are more likely to quit smoking in response to higher prices.
Raising tobacco taxes could be the most impactful health policy in the commission's recommendations, according to Yamey. "They are the most price sensitive, so they're more likely to quit when tobacco prices rise," he noted. "Therefore, they are more likely to get the health and financial benefits of giving up smoking."
"Global Health 2050" is the third report issued by the commission since its founding in 2013. The group, chaired by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers, was established 20 years after the World Bank's 1993 report "Investing in Health," which demonstrated that targeted spending on cost-effective health interventions could improve health outcomes, boost economies, and enhance human welfare.
"Early mortality and early death from diseases is awful for families, communities, economies, and countries," Yamey said. "You want people living long, healthy, productive lives. We hope this report helps bring focus to this global health agenda."
Research Report:Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century
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