China's Belt and Road Initiative lending spree of the 2010s has paid for shipping ports, railways, roads and more from the deserts of Africa to the tropical South Pacific.
But new lending is drying up, according to Australia's Lowy Institute, and is now outweighed by the debts that developing countries must pay back.
"Developing countries are grappling with a tidal wave of debt repayments and interest costs to China," researcher Riley Duke said.
"Now, and for the rest of this decade, China will be more debt collector than banker to the developing world."
The Lowy Institute sifted through World Bank data to calculate developing nations' repayment obligations.
It found that the poorest 75 countries were set to make "record high debt repayments" to China in 2025 of a combined US$22 billion.
"As a result, China's net lending position has shifted rapidly," Duke said.
"Moving from being a net provider of financing -- where it lent more than it received in repayments -- to a net drain, with repayments now exceeding loan disbursements."
Paying off debts was starting to jeopardise spending on hospitals, schools, and climate change, the Lowy report found.
"Pressure from Chinese state lending, along with surging repayments to a range of international private creditors, is putting enormous financial strain on developing economies."
The report also raised questions about whether China could seek to parlay these debts for "geopolitical leverage", especially after the United States slashed foreign aid.
While Chinese lending was falling almost across the board, the report said there were two areas that seemed to be bucking the trend.
The first was in nations such as Honduras and Solomon Islands, which received massive new loans after switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.
The other was in countries such as Indonesia or Brazil, where China has signed new loan deals to secure battery metals or other critical minerals.
SE Asian leaders meet China's Li and Gulf states to bolster ties
Kuala Lumpur (AFP) May 27, 2025 -
Southeast Asian leaders are looking to insulate their trade-dependent economies from geopolitical uncertainty, in particular US tariffs, as they hold talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Gulf state dignitaries in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday.
US President Donald Trump blew up global trade norms in April when he announced a slew of punishing levies targeting countries around the world, including US allies.
Though he subsequently instigated a 90-day pause for most, the experience has spurred the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to accelerate efforts to diversify its trading networks.
"A transition in the geopolitical order is underway," Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said in written remarks Monday.
After a lavish gala dinner the night before, Tuesday marks the inaugural summit between ASEAN, China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) -- a regional bloc made up of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The meeting shows "the successful reshaping of the matrix of partnership that speaks to today's multipolar reality", Anwar said.
ASEAN has traditionally served as "a middleman of sorts" between developed economies like the United States, and China, said Chong Ja Ian from the National University of Singapore (NUS).
"Given the uncertainty and unpredictability associated with economic relations with the United States, ASEAN member states are looking to diversify," he said.
"Facilitating exchanges between the Gulf and People's Republic of China is one aspect of this diversification."
Malaysia, which holds ASEAN's rotating chairmanship and opened the bloc's 46th summit on Monday, is the main force behind the initiative, he said.
- 'Timely and calculated' -
Beijing, which has suffered the brunt of Trump's tariffs, is also looking to shore up its other markets.
Its foreign ministry said Monday it "look(ed) forward to strengthening cooperation" with ASEAN and the GCC.
China and ASEAN are already each other's largest trading partners, and Chinese exports to Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam surged by double digits in April -- attributed to a re-routing of US-bound goods.
Premier Li's participation is "both timely and calculated", Khoo Ying Hooi from the University of Malaya told AFP.
"China sees an opportunity here to reinforce its image as a reliable economic partner, especially in the face of Western decoupling efforts."
Beijing and Washington engaged in an escalating flurry of tit-for-tat levies until a meeting in Switzerland saw an agreement to slash them for 90 days.
Chinese goods still face higher tariffs than most though.
According to a draft statement seen by AFP, ASEAN will express "deep concern... over the imposition of unilateral tariff measures".
But it said earlier this year it would not impose retaliatory duties.
The bloc "is unlikely to formally endorse a pro-China position on US tariffs", said Khoo.
"Li's presence is less about coercion and more about shaping long-term narratives and partnerships," she said.
- Treacherous waters -
ASEAN as a body has historically avoided choosing a side between the United States and China.
China is only Southeast Asia's fourth largest source of foreign direct investment, after the United States, Japan, and the European Union, noted NUS' Chong.
Anwar said Monday he had written to request an ASEAN-US summit this year, with his foreign minister saying Washington had not yet responded.
Yet any closer alignment with Beijing presents problems of its own, despite Anwar's insistence Monday night that "whatever is being said... we are here as a friend of China".
On Monday, Philippines leader Ferdinand Marcos said there was an "urgent need" to adopt a legally binding code of conduct in the South China Sea.
Beijing has territorial disputes with five ASEAN member states in the area, with China and the Philippines having engaged in months of confrontations in the contested waters.
"Other disputants... are perhaps willing to let the Philippines bear the brunt of pressure," said NUS' Chong.
However, tension between Manila and Beijing "means that these issues will not fade into the background, much as some other Southeast Asian states wish to focus on economic issues".
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